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ATH @ TEX

Wednesday · September 2, 2026·full·gamePk 822851free Saturday

refreshed 573h 55m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Globe Life Field

gametime 2:35 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

98°F

humidity 38%

wind

6 mph

in from LF

precip

mostly clear

park

TEX

retractable · HP→CF 7°

wind impact on total

-0.01 R/Gnone in

In wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Jacob LopezLHP · ATH	Cody BradfordLHP · TEX
xERA 2026	3.40	5.02
xwOBA 2026	0.286	0.342
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.047	0.009
xERA 2025	3.64	—
xwOBA 2025	0.297	—
Outs/TB 25-26	1.93	1.72
FIP 25-26	4.51	3.39
kwERA 25-26	3.65	4.66
K% 25-26	24.9%	11.4%
BB% 25-26	10.3%	5.3%
IP 25+26 combined	191.7	26.3
ERA actual 2026	4.82	3.42
ERA (L4)	2.25	4.09
WHIP (L4)	0.96	1.50
K% (L4)	27.1%	8.5%
BB% (L4)	7.3%	4.3%
IP/gm (L4)	6.00	5.50
L4 window	08/10→08/28 (4 st)	08/11→08/28 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	102 (+4)	86 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.53 (−1.17)	5.12 (−0.21)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.32	-0.20

away arsenal — ATH

RV/100 -0.32

Slider—+0.00xwOBA 0.241
4-Seam Fastball—+0.60xwOBA 0.273
Cutter—+0.00xwOBA 0.316
Changeup—-6.30xwOBA 0.403
Sinker—+0.60xwOBA 0.399

home arsenal — TEX

RV/100 -0.20

4-Seam Fastball—-0.90xwOBA 0.358
Changeup—+1.60xwOBA 0.256
Slider—-2.60xwOBA 0.442

away · ATH vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.655

Σ match

2.804

Σ FRV

-13.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Henry Bolte	0.301	0.324	+4.4
2	LF	Zack Gelof	0.301	0.308	-2.1
3	DH	Lawrence Butler	0.321	0.351	-10.1
4	1B	Jonah Heim	0.295	0.303	-5.6
5	2B	Jeff McNeil	0.308	0.336	-3.0
6	3B	Michael Stefanic	0.381	0.351	+0.3
7	SS	Alika Williams	0.243	0.265	+0.7
8	C	Brian Serven	0.315	0.340	+0.7
9	CF	Denzel Clarke	0.190	0.224	+0.8

home · TEX vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.744

Σ match

2.534

Σ FRV

+17.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Ezequiel Duran	0.304	0.273	+13.0
2	SS	Corey Seager	0.352	0.333	+0.9
3	LF	Wyatt Langford	0.316	0.294	+3.2
4	RF	Brandon Nimmo	0.357	0.330	-4.3
5	1B	Jake Burger	0.312	0.284	+4.7
6	2B	Justin Foscue	0.328	0.298	+2.0
7	DH	Elias Díaz	0.278	0.240	+0.7
8	3B	Cody Freeman	0.246	0.250	+0.9
9	C	Danny Jansen	0.251	0.233	-3.6

defense · ATH catcher (Savant FRV)

Brian Serven

FRV+0.7
framing-0.1
blocking+0.9
throwing-0.1

defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)

Danny Jansen

FRV-3.6
framing-4.6
blocking+1.7
throwing-0.7

ATH · Jacob Lopez

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs BAL · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	102
Location+	—	—	109
Pitching+	—	—	108
botOvr	—	—	53
SIERA	—	—	3.53

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-16 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-28; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

TEX · Cody Bradford

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs MIL · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	86
Location+	—	—	109
Pitching+	—	—	89
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	5.12

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-16 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

ATH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.36–0.54]

0.107 R/PA · 0.151 R/out · worst: Geoff Hartlieb (5.96)

TEX · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.37–0.48]

0.100 R/PA · 0.142 R/out · worst: Ben Peoples (4.82)

ATH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Luis Medina	SETUP	SU	3.76	28.1	11.7	1.38	0/9/10	stable
Hogan Harris	SETUP	CL	3.94	28.9	13.9	0.93	13/12/13	stable
Kade Morris	BULK	LR	6.90	13.3	8.0	3.33	0/0/2	insufficient data
Brady Basso	MR	MR	3.18	17.9	3.0	1.22	0/3/0	ramping up
Elvis Alvarado	MR	CL	4.53	29.5	11.5	1.08	5/8/11	stable
Geoff Hartlieb	MR	MR	5.19	9.4	14.1	2.13	0/1/3	ramping down
Chris Roycroft	MR	MR	7.11	13.8	9.4	1.28	1/0/6	ramping up
Yunior Tur	MR	MR	10.51	21.4	11.9	2.00	0/0/0	insufficient data
Scott Blewett	unknown	MR	2.40	20.2	8.1	—	0/2/0	—

TEX

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jacob Latz	CLOSER	CL	2.38	30.4	8.0	1.28	28/2/26	stable
Jakob Junis	SETUP	SU	3.39	18.3	6.3	1.12	5/17/9	stable
Chase Silseth	SETUP	SU	3.95	26.5	13.9	0.85	0/14/7	stable
Tyler Alexander	OPENER	MR	2.88	20.4	7.1	0.95	4/11/11	stable
Robby Ahlstrom	MR	MR	4.35	21.6	7.2	0.82	0/6/3	stable
Adam Macko	MR	MR	4.47	22.2	10.3	1.04	0/5/2	stable
Ben Peoples	MR	MR	5.83	14.5	9.7	1.06	0/0/1	ramping down
Trevor Williams	unknown	MR	4.18	28.4	8.6	—	0/1/0	—
Jordan Montgomery	unknown	LR	5.17	19.2	3.8	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

9 ATH · 2 TEX

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

ATH

9 R

14H · 5HR · 5BB · 8K · 23LOB

OBPe 0.435 · SLGe 0.800 · K% 17.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 10 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

TEX

2 R

8H · 2HR · 2BB · 10K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.286 · SLGe 0.424 · K% 28.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 9 ER · 8 K · relief 5.0 IP · 4 arms

ATH · standout lines

big nights

Henry Bolte (RF) · 3-4 | 2 HR, BB, HBP2-HR night · 3 H · 9 TB · 4 RBI
Zack Gelof (LF) · 2-5 | HR, 2B, 2 KHR
Jonah Heim (1B) · 1-5 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR
Alika Williams (SS) · 2-4 | HR, 2B, BBHR

TEX · standout lines

big nights

Ezequiel Duran (RF) · 3-4 | HR, RBI, RHR · 3 H
Justin Foscue (2B) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR

tough nights

Corey Seager (SS) · 0-40-for-4
Jake Burger (1B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K