Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

ATL @ WSH

Wednesday · September 2, 2026·full·gamePk 822686free Saturday

refreshed 575h 22m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Nationals Park

gametime 1:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

92°F

humidity 54%

wind

4 mph

in from CF

precip

clear

park

WSH

open · HP→CF 30°

wind impact on total

-0.12 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.12 R/G vs neutral. _Nationals Park has noticeable wind variability — open bowl on Anacostia, weather matters_

opener / bulk pattern

WSH: Brad Lord opens → bulk: Will Dion· predicted bulk based on 3/26 prior short outings

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Grant HolmesRHP · ATL	Brad LordRHP · opener · WSH	Will DionLHP · bulk · WSH
xERA 2026	4.73	4.12	3.11
xwOBA 2026	0.333	0.313	0.274
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.016	-0.029	0.033
xERA 2025	4.55	4.73	—
xwOBA 2025	0.329	0.335	—
Outs/TB 25-26	2.03	2.10	2.00
FIP 25-26	4.58	4.23	3.81
kwERA 25-26	4.05	3.96	2.81
K% 25-26	21.7%	20.4%	28.4%
BB% 25-26	10.4%	8.4%	6.8%
IP 25+26 combined	243.7	200.3	37.3
ERA actual 2026	3.71	3.75	3.38
ERA (L4)	5.49	10.29	4.15
WHIP (L4)	1.58	2.29	1.15
K% (L4)	15.1%	15.8%	15.6%
BB% (L4)	9.3%	18.4%	9.4%
IP/gm (L4)	4.92	1.75	2.89
L4 window	07/24→08/28 (4 st)	07/01→08/15 (4 outs)	08/09→08/31 (3 outs)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	81 (−6)	92 (−4)	102 (−6)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.87 (+0.15)	5.27 (+1.55)	7.96 (+4.98)
Arsenal RV/100	0.13	0.38	0.22

away arsenal — ATL

RV/100 0.13

Slider—+0.70xwOBA 0.296
4-Seam Fastball—+0.00xwOBA 0.380
Sinker—-0.40xwOBA 0.410
Cutter—-1.50xwOBA 0.423
Curveball—-0.60xwOBA 0.241
Changeup—+1.40xwOBA 0.239

home arsenal · BULK Will Dion — WSH

RV/100 0.22

4-Seam Fastball—+1.40xwOBA 0.248
Changeup—+2.00xwOBA 0.212
Curveball—-1.20xwOBA 0.375
Cutter—-7.80xwOBA 0.493

away · ATL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.793

Σ match

2.585

Σ FRV

+4.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Drake Baldwin	0.368	0.334	-0.5
2	RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0.358	0.308	-3.6
3	1B	Matt Olson	0.359	0.312	+7.5
4	2B	Ozzie Albies	0.287	0.259	-2.3
5	CF	Michael Harris II	0.344	0.308	+10.1
6	C	Sean Murphy	0.252	0.256	-0.9
7	LF	Mike Yastrzemski	0.308	0.295	-1.6
8	3B	Austin Riley	0.298	0.271	-1.3
9	SS	Ha-Seong Kim	0.219	0.243	-2.9

home · WSH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

3.174

Σ match

3.291

Σ FRV

-6.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	James Wood	0.419	0.477	-6.4
2	DH	Abimelec Ortiz	0.302	0.335	+0.0
3	CF	Dylan Crews	0.310	0.335	+1.5
4	2B	CJ Abrams	0.330	0.372	-11.1
5	3B	Andrés Chaparro	0.357	0.417	-1.5
6	LF	Daylen Lile	0.329	0.349	+2.8
7	1B	Yohandy Morales	0.578	0.412	—
8	C	Keibert Ruiz	0.283	0.306	-0.0
9	SS	Nasim Nuñez	0.266	0.287	+8.4

defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)

Sean Murphy

FRV-0.9
framing-1.2
blocking+0.8
throwing-0.4

defense · WSH catcher (Savant FRV)

Keibert Ruiz

FRV-0.0
framing+2.1
blocking-0.2
throwing-1.9

ATL · Grant Holmes

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs COL · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	81
Location+	—	—	103
Pitching+	—	—	89
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	4.87

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-09 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-28; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

WSH · Will Dion

Last outing 2026-08-31 vs MIA · 3.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	102
Location+	—	—	70
Pitching+	—	—	75
botOvr	—	—	45
SIERA	—	—	7.96

Last 3 outings: 2026-08-09 → 2026-08-31. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-31; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

ATL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.35R / inningband [0.27–0.43]

0.082 R/PA · 0.116 R/out · worst: Elieser Hernández (4.54)

WSH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.28–0.59]

0.102 R/PA · 0.145 R/out · worst: Max Kranick (5.40)

ATL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Raisel Iglesias	CLOSER	CL	3.32	25.1	7.7	1.04	29/0/29	stable
Dylan Lee	SETUP	SU	2.04	31.4	6.4	0.97	0/30/1	stable
Didier Fuentes	SETUP	SU	2.44	31.2	7.7	1.20	3/15/4	ramping down
Dylan Dodd	SETUP	MR	3.25	26.8	7.7	1.18	1/14/4	ramping down
Brent Suter	OPENER	MR	3.59	20.4	6.9	1.54	0/3/13	stable
Victor Mederos	MR	MR	3.01	23.1	9.4	1.87	1/1/4	ramping up
Ray Kerr	unknown	LR	4.89	18.5	3.7	—	0/1/0	—
Elieser Hernández	unknown	MR	5.25	21.4	14.3	—	1/0/0	—

WSH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Orlando Ribalta	SETUP	SU	3.90	23.6	10.1	0.92	2/12/6	stable
Brad Lord	SETUP	MR	4.25	21.5	9.4	2.15	1/6/4	stable
Clayton Beeter	SETUP	CL	5.29	23.0	15.3	0.96	12/8/11	stable
Matt Waldron	BULK	LR	4.66	16.7	5.7	3.58	0/1/1	ramping down
Will Dion	MR	LR	3.81	28.4	6.8	1.79	0/0/6	ramping down
Riley Cornelio	MR	MR	4.74	20.8	20.8	2.04	0/0/2	ramping down
Max Kranick	MOP_UP	MR	6.14	12.0	12.0	0.67	0/2/0	insufficient data
Jared Simpson	unknown	MR	1.09	37.5	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Erik Tolman	unknown	MR	1.59	34.8	8.7	—	1/1/0	—
Luis Perales	unknown	MR	8.09	23.8	19.0	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

9 ATL · 0 WSH

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

ATL

9 R

11H · 2HR · 6BB · 11K · 22LOB

OBPe 0.395 · SLGe 0.513 · K% 25.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 6 K · relief 6.0 IP · 5 arms

WSH

0 R

2H · 0HR · 2BB · 6K · 6LOB

OBPe 0.129 · SLGe 0.069 · K% 19.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 9 ER · 11 K · relief 5.7 IP · 5 arms

ATL · standout lines

big nights

Ronald Acuña Jr. (RF) · 3-5 | HR, K, 3 RBIHR · 3 H
Sean Murphy (C) · 2-4 | HR, BB, KHR · 4 RBI

tough nights

Drake Baldwin (DH) · 0-4 | BB, K, R0-for-4
Matt Olson (1B) · 0-5 | 4 K0-for-5 · 4 K

WSH · standout lines

tough nights

Abimelec Ortiz (DH) · 0-40-for-4
CJ Abrams (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4