Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

SEA @ BOS

Tuesday · September 1, 2026·full·gamePk 824716free Saturday

refreshed 594h 33m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Fenway Park

gametime 6:45 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

65°F

humidity 91%

wind

2 mph

out to LF

precip

12%

overcast

park

BOS

open · HP→CF 46°

wind impact on total

+0.02 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

opener / bulk pattern

BOS: Jedixson Paez opens → bulk: no confident pattern

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Bryan WooRHP · SEA	Jedixson PaezRHP · BOS
xERA 2026	3.67	12.73
xwOBA 2026	0.297	0.492
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.007	0.007
xERA 2025	3.07	—
xwOBA 2025	0.274	—
Outs/TB 25-26	2.21	0.90
FIP 25-26	3.44	14.74
kwERA 25-26	2.89	7.65
K% 25-26	25.9%	0.0%
BB% 25-26	5.0%	18.8%
IP 25+26 combined	329.0	3.0
ERA actual 2026	4.36	18.00
ERA (L4)	3.27	—
WHIP (L4)	0.82	—
K% (L4)	23.8%	—
BB% (L4)	4.8%	—
IP/gm (L4)	5.50	—
L4 window	08/05→08/26 (4 st)	—
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	111 (+2)	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.05 (+0.48)	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.68	—

away arsenal — SEA

RV/100 0.68

4-Seam Fastball—+1.20xwOBA 0.314
Sinker—-0.40xwOBA 0.338
Slider—-0.40xwOBA 0.316
Sweeper—-0.10xwOBA 0.216
Changeup—+4.00xwOBA 0.195

home arsenal · BULK Jedixson Paez — BOS

RV/100 —

No Savant arsenal data.

away · SEA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.492

Σ match

—

Σ FRV

-19.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Randy Arozarena	0.346	—	-6.8
2	RF	Dominic Canzone	0.353	—	+0.3
3	CF	Julio Rodríguez	0.340	—	-0.9
4	C	Cal Raleigh	0.309	—	-1.5
5	1B	Josh Naylor	0.313	—	+2.8
6	2B	Cole Young	0.314	—	-3.2
7	DH	Lazaro Montes	—	—	—
8	SS	J.P. Crawford	0.320	—	-7.3
9	3B	Brock Rodden	0.197	—	-2.7

home · BOS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.798

Σ match

2.783

Σ FRV

+16.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Roman Anthony	0.358	0.362	+0.5
2	1B	Mickey Gasper	0.361	0.382	-2.4
3	CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.281	0.271	+14.9
4	DH	Wilyer Abreu	0.350	0.336	+4.2
5	2B	Nick Sogard	0.323	0.313	+1.6
6	3B	Caleb Durbin	0.288	0.282	+4.1
7	LF	Jarren Duran	0.301	0.301	+4.3
8	SS	Trevor Story	0.246	0.245	-3.1
9	C	Connor Wong	0.290	0.290	-8.1

defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)

Cal Raleigh

FRV-1.5
framing-2.2
blocking+3.3
throwing-2.6

defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)

Connor Wong

FRV-8.1
framing-7.1
blocking+0.4
throwing-1.4

SEA · Bryan Woo

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs PHI · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	111
Location+	—	—	109
Pitching+	—	—	115
botOvr	—	—	60
SIERA	—	—	4.05

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-26. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

BOS · Jedixson Paez: no recent outing on file.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SEA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.35–0.51]

0.101 R/PA · 0.144 R/out · worst: Hoby Milner (4.68)

BOS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.36R / inningband [0.30–0.42]

0.085 R/PA · 0.120 R/out · worst: Alec Gamboa (4.10)

SEA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Andrés Muñoz	CLOSER	CL	2.96	38.3	9.6	0.93	24/0/29	stable
Eduard Bazardo	SETUP	MR	4.03	23.3	7.6	0.94	0/26/2	stable
José A. Ferrer	SETUP	SU	4.07	17.7	6.4	0.89	3/13/7	stable
Gabe Speier	SETUP	MR	4.20	20.8	8.8	0.82	1/18/5	stable
Hoby Milner	SETUP	MR	4.54	12.1	6.0	0.94	1/6/7	stable
Seranthony Domínguez	SETUP	MR	5.09	26.0	13.7	0.89	12/6/18	stable
Michael Rucker	MR	MR	3.73	26.8	9.2	1.05	0/1/6	stable
Cooper Criswell	MR	LR	3.92	18.4	8.0	1.18	1/3/12	stable
Carlos Vargas	unknown	MR	1.13	32.0	4.0	—	0/0/0	—

BOS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Aroldis Chapman	CLOSER	CL	2.40	31.7	10.6	0.96	30/0/27	stable
Garrett Whitlock	SETUP	SU	2.19	29.2	4.1	0.97	2/22/7	stable
Erik Miller	SETUP	SU	2.92	34.6	13.3	0.86	4/12/7	stable
Greg Weissert	SETUP	MR	4.12	24.0	7.4	0.96	1/6/4	stable
Jovani Morán	OPENER	MR	4.52	25.9	11.9	1.53	0/4/6	ramping down
Alec Gamboa	MR	MR	3.16	17.4	6.5	1.60	1/1/5	ramping up
Wyatt Olds	unknown	MR	1.91	29.6	11.1	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

9 SEA · 6 BOS

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SEA

9 R

14H · 3HR · 5BB · 8K · 22LOB

OBPe 0.413 · SLGe 0.675 · K% 17.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 10 K · relief 3.0 IP · 5 arms

BOS

6 R

11H · 2HR · 2BB · 10K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.317 · SLGe 0.513 · K% 24.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 9 ER · 8 K · relief 5.3 IP · 4 arms

SEA · standout lines

big nights

Randy Arozarena (LF) · 1-5 | HR, 2 K, 3 RBIHR
Dominic Canzone (RF) · 1-5 | HR, K, RBIHR
Lazaro Montes (DH) · 2-4 | HR, BB, KHR

BOS · standout lines

big nights

Jahmai Jones (PH) · 1-1 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR
Mickey Gasper (1B) · 1-3 | HR, BB, KHR

tough nights

Ceddanne Rafaela (CF) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Caleb Durbin (3B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4