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today's slate

MIL @ CHC

Tuesday · September 1, 2026·full·gamePk 824633free Saturday

refreshed 594h 28m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Wrigley Field

gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

86°F

humidity 60%

wind

6 mph

out to CF

precip

mostly clear

park

CHC

open · HP→CF 36°

wind impact on total

+0.24 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.24 R/G vs neutral. _THE wind park — Lake Michigan lake-effect dominates. Wind OUT (south) → HR feast. Wind IN (north off lake) → pitcher's paradise. April/Oct often wind-in cold, June/July often wind-out warm._

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Robert GasserLHP · MIL	Matthew BoydLHP · CHC
xERA 2026	4.22	4.97
xwOBA 2026	0.317	0.341
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.015	-0.025
xERA 2025	4.96	3.74
xwOBA 2025	0.342	0.301
Outs/TB 25-26	1.77	2.15
FIP 25-26	4.59	4.00
kwERA 25-26	3.71	3.70
K% 25-26	21.5%	20.6%
BB% 25-26	7.4%	6.4%
IP 25+26 combined	88.0	276.7
ERA actual 2026	4.59	3.99
ERA (L4)	3.68	5.04
WHIP (L4)	1.32	1.24
K% (L4)	21.1%	13.0%
BB% (L4)	5.3%	9.0%
IP/gm (L4)	5.50	6.25
L4 window	07/25→08/14 (4 st)	08/03→08/26 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	102 (−3)	95 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.21 (+0.11)	5.59 (+1.19)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.36	0.01

away arsenal — MIL

RV/100 -0.36

Sweeper—-1.40xwOBA 0.261
4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.268
Sinker—+0.90xwOBA 0.374
Cutter—+0.80xwOBA 0.358
Changeup—-2.80xwOBA 0.396

home arsenal — CHC

RV/100 0.01

4-Seam Fastball—-0.60xwOBA 0.396
Changeup—-0.10xwOBA 0.336
Slider—+0.80xwOBA 0.241
Curveball—+1.40xwOBA 0.220

away · MIL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.964

Σ match

3.191

Σ FRV

+11.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Jackson Chourio	0.336	0.354	+3.9
2	2B	Brice Turang	0.336	0.344	+12.6
3	C	William Contreras	0.337	0.347	-2.2
4	RF	Jake Bauers	0.373	0.414	-8.9
5	1B	Andrew Vaughn	0.338	0.409	-7.0
6	DH	Christian Yelich	0.315	0.338	+0.0
7	CF	Luis Lara	0.322	0.375	+1.2
8	3B	Joey Ortiz	0.296	0.301	+9.5
9	SS	Cooper Pratt	0.311	0.308	+2.7

home · CHC vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.622

Σ match

2.986

Σ FRV

+49.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0.369	0.361	+24.9
2	RF	Seiya Suzuki	0.341	0.343	+7.2
3	3B	Alex Bregman	0.317	0.329	+5.3
4	LF	Tyrone Taylor	0.321	0.333	+1.3
5	SS	Nico Hoerner	0.325	0.338	+7.3
6	1B	Michael Busch	0.330	0.358	+1.7
7	C	Carson Kelly	0.314	0.333	+0.8
8	DH	BJ Murray Jr.	—	0.285	—
9	2B	Matt Shaw	0.305	0.305	+1.1

defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)

William Contreras

FRV-2.2
framing-4.2
blocking-1.1
throwing+3.1

defense · CHC catcher (Savant FRV)

Carson Kelly

FRV+0.8
framing+1.9
blocking+1.4
throwing-2.6

MIL · Robert Gasser

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs NYM · 5.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	102
Location+	—	—	94
Pitching+	—	—	93
botOvr	—	—	56
SIERA	—	—	4.21

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-14. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CHC · Matthew Boyd

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs AZ · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	95
Location+	—	—	106
Pitching+	—	—	100
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	5.59

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-09 → 2026-08-26. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.37–0.45]

0.097 R/PA · 0.137 R/out · worst: Chad Patrick (4.04)

CHC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.34–0.51]

0.101 R/PA · 0.142 R/out · worst: Trent Thornton (4.72)

MIL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Trevor Megill	CLOSER	CL	1.76	28.1	6.9	0.97	25/7/21	stable
Aaron Ashby	SETUP	SU	2.90	31.8	11.3	1.23	2/13/5	stable
Abner Uribe	SETUP	SU	3.08	25.1	9.4	0.99	6/18/13	stable
JoJo Romero	SETUP	SU	3.98	23.1	8.6	0.98	0/20/4	stable
Grant Anderson	SETUP	LR	4.41	21.8	9.5	1.11	0/5/8	stable
Chad Patrick	SWING	MR	3.95	21.0	9.6	2.46	5/10/5	ramping down
Antonio Senzatela	MR	MR	3.49	20.3	7.9	1.61	3/9/11	ramping down
DL Hall	MR	MR	3.93	27.8	15.6	1.29	0/5/5	stable

CHC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Daniel Palencia	CLOSER	SU	3.85	28.6	8.3	0.88	3/0/12	stable
Jacob Webb	SETUP	CL	3.70	26.0	8.4	0.98	9/8/14	stable
Ryan Zeferjahn	SETUP	MR	4.03	31.5	13.5	1.15	4/12/15	stable
Caleb Thielbar	SETUP	MR	4.83	29.0	8.0	0.85	3/7/6	stable
Ryan Rolison	OPENER	MR	4.10	22.5	11.3	1.12	1/7/13	stable
Trent Thornton	MR	SU	5.11	14.7	9.0	1.11	3/5/9	ramping down
Tyler Ferguson	MR	MR	5.43	28.6	2.9	0.97	0/4/4	stable
Aaron Civale	SP	MR	4.71	18.3	6.6	4.67	1/0/0	ramping down
Colin Rea	SP	LR	4.80	17.5	8.1	5.03	1/0/1	ramping up

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

9 MIL · 4 CHC

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIL

9 R

13H · 2HR · 5BB · 5K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.429 · SLGe 0.595 · K% 11.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 8 K · relief 4.7 IP · 6 arms

CHC

4 R

6H · 0HR · 3BB · 8K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.250 · SLGe 0.273 · K% 22.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 9 ER · 5 K · relief 3.7 IP · 5 arms

MIL · standout lines

big nights

William Contreras (C) · 2-5 | 2 2B, K, RBI4 TB
Christian Yelich (DH) · 1-4 | HR, BB, 2 RBIHR
Joey Ortiz (3B) · 2-4 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR

CHC · standout lines

tough nights

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Carson Kelly (C) · 0-4 | RBI0-for-4