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today's slate

SD @ CIN

Tuesday · September 1, 2026·full·gamePk 824472free Saturday

refreshed 594h 34m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Great American Ball Park

gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

94°F

humidity 38%

wind

4 mph

out to RF

precip

clear

park

CIN

open · HP→CF 24°

wind impact on total

+0.08 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Randy VásquezRHP · SD	Nick LodoloLHP · CIN
xERA 2026	5.67	6.58
xwOBA 2026	0.361	0.384
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.036	-0.008
xERA 2025	5.37	3.51
xwOBA 2025	0.354	0.292
Outs/TB 25-26	1.95	1.89
FIP 25-26	4.62	4.41
kwERA 25-26	4.65	3.50
K% 25-26	14.2%	22.1%
BB% 25-26	7.9%	6.3%
IP 25+26 combined	256.7	235.7
ERA actual 2026	4.02	5.24
ERA (L4)	4.02	5.00
WHIP (L4)	1.02	1.44
K% (L4)	4.9%	20.0%
BB% (L4)	8.2%	8.8%
IP/gm (L4)	3.92	4.50
L4 window	07/02→08/26 (4 st)	07/11→08/26 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	100 (+3)	104 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.01 (+0.18)	4.57 (−0.16)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.12	-0.89

away arsenal — SD

RV/100 -0.12

4-Seam Fastball—+1.20xwOBA 0.322
Cutter—-1.10xwOBA 0.419
Sinker—+1.70xwOBA 0.380
Curveball—-2.30xwOBA 0.370
Changeup—-0.80xwOBA 0.301
Slider—-2.30xwOBA 0.298
Sweeper—-1.40xwOBA 0.452

home arsenal — CIN

RV/100 -0.89

Sinker—-1.00xwOBA 0.479
4-Seam Fastball—-1.40xwOBA 0.334
Curveball—-0.80xwOBA 0.304
Changeup—-0.30xwOBA 0.366

away · SD vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.834

Σ match

3.371

Σ FRV

+37.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.373	0.458	+5.2
2	LF	Samad Taylor	0.326	0.375	-0.9
3	3B	Manny Machado	0.332	0.398	+4.6
4	1B	Ty France	0.332	0.404	+8.3
5	CF	Jackson Merrill	0.333	0.406	+8.7
6	SS	Xander Bogaerts	0.321	0.359	+3.6
7	DH	Austin Hays	0.277	0.345	-2.0
8	C	Freddy Fermin	0.275	0.326	+8.9
9	RF	Jase Bowen	0.265	0.300	+1.5

home · CIN vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.669

Σ match

3.162

Σ FRV

+7.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Héctor Rodríguez	0.284	0.316	+0.2
2	DH	Elly De La Cruz	0.361	0.429	+4.6
3	1B	Sal Stewart	0.351	0.409	-2.8
4	LF	JJ Bleday	0.348	0.426	-0.7
5	SS	Matt McLain	0.310	0.372	+1.4
6	C	Jose Trevino	0.219	0.263	+1.8
7	2B	Juan Brito	0.256	0.312	-1.4
8	CF	TJ Friedl	0.245	0.295	+2.8
9	3B	Edwin Arroyo	0.295	0.339	+1.7

defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)

Freddy Fermin

FRV+8.9
framing+2.9
blocking+1.9
throwing+4.1

defense · CIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Jose Trevino

FRV+1.8
framing+1.3
blocking+0.9
throwing-0.4

SD · Randy Vásquez

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs PIT · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	110
Pitching+	—	—	107
botOvr	—	—	58
SIERA	—	—	5.01

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-25 → 2026-08-26. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CIN · Nick Lodolo

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs SF · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	104
Location+	—	—	82
Pitching+	—	—	84
botOvr	—	—	48
SIERA	—	—	4.57

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-26. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.34–0.46]

0.095 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Wandy Peralta (4.53)

CIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.39–0.50]

0.104 R/PA · 0.148 R/out · worst: Tony Santillan (4.73)

SD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Mason Miller	CLOSER	CL	1.05	47.5	9.1	1.04	32/0/34	stable
Adrian Morejon	SETUP	SU	2.40	29.9	7.0	1.16	2/22/6	stable
Kyle Hart	SETUP	MR	3.22	23.5	8.1	1.40	0/7/5	stable
Bradgley Rodriguez	OPENER	SU	2.47	25.8	7.1	1.09	2/11/5	stable
Wandy Peralta	OPENER	MR	4.08	15.3	8.0	1.17	0/4/14	stable
David Morgan	MR	MR	4.12	24.3	13.0	1.22	0/1/5	stable
Yuki Matsui	MR	MR	4.22	26.7	14.3	1.35	0/8/5	ramping down
Jhony Brito	MR	MR	4.58	20.0	5.0	1.78	0/1/1	insufficient data
Griffin Canning	SP	LR	4.83	22.4	10.2	4.24	0/1/0	ramping down

CIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Emilio Pagán	CLOSER	CL	4.55	24.6	6.5	0.91	19/0/15	stable
Brock Burke	SETUP	MR	3.95	23.8	13.5	0.95	2/16/10	stable
Pierce Johnson	SETUP	MR	4.46	19.9	8.8	0.88	1/7/8	stable
Tony Santillan	SETUP	SU	7.09	18.6	13.0	0.91	5/11/11	stable
Luis Mey	MR	SU	3.69	31.7	14.4	1.24	0/3/0	ramping down
Tejay Antone	MR	MR	4.17	22.2	6.7	1.00	1/8/6	stable
Julian Garcia	MR	LR	4.68	25.0	9.0	1.62	2/3/2	stable
Sam Moll	MOP_UP	MR	4.20	21.4	11.9	0.88	1/7/5	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 SD · 4 CIN

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SD

3 R

7H · 2HR · 4BB · 10K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.316 · SLGe 0.581 · K% 26.3

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 4 ER · 7 K · relief 3.3 IP · 5 arms

CIN

4 R

8H · 0HR · 4BB · 7K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.343 · SLGe 0.333 · K% 20.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 10 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

SD · standout lines

big nights

Fernando Tatis Jr. (2B) · 2-5 | 2 HR, K, 2 RBI2-HR night · 8 TB
Samad Taylor (LF) · 2-4 | 3B, HBP, K4 TB

tough nights

Ty France (1B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4