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today's slate

TOR @ CLE

Tuesday · September 1, 2026·full·gamePk 824391free Saturday

refreshed 594h 34m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Progressive Field

gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

89°F

humidity 53%

wind

9 mph

out to RF

precip

partly cloudy

park

CLE

open · HP→CF 25°

wind impact on total

+0.16 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.16 R/G vs neutral. _Lake Erie wind in from LF in spring/fall — kills LH HR; summer flattens_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Spencer MilesRHP · TOR	Gavin WilliamsRHP · CLE
xERA 2026	2.98	4.00
xwOBA 2026	0.269	0.309
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.009	-0.008
xERA 2025	—	4.30
xwOBA 2025	—	0.321
Outs/TB 25-26	2.60	2.14
FIP 25-26	2.80	4.06
kwERA 25-26	3.40	3.19
K% 25-26	22.9%	28.3%
BB% 25-26	6.3%	9.8%
IP 25+26 combined	83.3	323.7
ERA actual 2026	2.92	3.98
ERA (L4)	0.00	6.35
WHIP (L4)	0.92	1.47
K% (L4)	11.8%	32.9%
BB% (L4)	0.0%	10.5%
IP/gm (L4)	1.08	4.25
L4 window	08/11→08/26 (4 outs)	08/02→08/25 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	95 (−6)	103 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.94 (+1.70)	2.24 (−0.73)
Arsenal RV/100	1.38	0.13

away arsenal — TOR

RV/100 1.38

Sinker—+3.00xwOBA 0.293
Curveball—+0.80xwOBA 0.281
Slider—-0.20xwOBA 0.232
4-Seam Fastball—-0.60xwOBA 0.200

home arsenal — CLE

RV/100 0.13

Sweeper—+1.00xwOBA 0.226
4-Seam Fastball—+0.60xwOBA 0.312
Curveball—-0.40xwOBA 0.282
Sinker—-1.00xwOBA 0.432
Cutter—-1.00xwOBA 0.420

away · TOR vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.661

Σ match

2.634

Σ FRV

+35.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Brett Bateman	0.273	0.286	+3.4
2	C	Alejandro Kirk	0.310	0.297	+9.6
3	1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0.331	0.331	+4.1
4	DH	George Springer	0.306	0.308	-0.3
5	RF	Nathan Lukes	0.292	0.279	+6.3
6	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	0.320	0.312	-2.8
7	SS	Andrés Giménez	0.267	0.268	+14.9
8	2B	Ernie Clement	0.265	0.255	-3.6
9	LF	Myles Straw	0.297	0.299	+3.6

home · CLE vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.869

Σ match

2.469

Σ FRV

+19.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Steven Kwan	0.321	0.287	+8.2
2	DH	Chase DeLauter	0.344	0.301	+0.9
3	3B	José Ramírez	0.343	0.293	+1.5
4	RF	Jo Adell	0.330	0.286	-7.5
5	1B	Nathaniel Lowe	0.332	0.296	-2.2
6	LF	Angel Martínez	0.305	0.252	+2.4
7	2B	Travis Bazzana	0.296	0.254	-0.8
8	C	Patrick Bailey	0.306	0.256	+5.8
9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	0.292	0.243	+10.8

defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)

Alejandro Kirk

FRV+9.6
framing+6.8
blocking+3.4
throwing-0.6

defense · CLE catcher (Savant FRV)

Patrick Bailey

FRV+5.8
framing+4.4
blocking-1.3
throwing+2.7

TOR · Spencer Miles

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs KC · 2.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	95
Location+	—	—	93
Pitching+	—	—	86
botOvr	—	—	48
SIERA	—	—	4.94

Last 3 outings: 2026-08-15 → 2026-08-26. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CLE · Gavin Williams

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs LAA · 1.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	103
Location+	—	—	108
Pitching+	—	—	116
botOvr	—	—	59
SIERA	—	—	2.24

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-08 → 2026-08-25. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-25; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TOR · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.38–0.51]

0.105 R/PA · 0.149 R/out · worst: Tyler Rogers (4.75)

CLE · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.34–0.45]

0.093 R/PA · 0.132 R/out · worst: Tim Herrin (4.22)

TOR

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Louis Varland	CLOSER	CL	1.80	31.5	6.7	1.11	31/5/31	stable
Paul Sewald	CLOSER	MR	5.36	25.8	6.5	0.91	24/1/33	stable
Tyler Rogers	SETUP	SU	3.22	13.6	8.1	0.97	4/29/6	stable
Mason Fluharty	OPENER	MR	3.71	25.4	10.3	0.76	1/15/5	stable
Braydon Fisher	OPENER	MR	4.22	23.6	13.0	1.05	1/12/7	stable
Spencer Miles	SWING	SU	2.80	22.9	6.2	2.37	1/4/6	ramping up
Joe Mantiply	MR	MR	2.85	22.5	5.6	1.04	0/0/4	ramping down
Brendon Little	MOP_UP	MR	6.03	31.7	19.8	0.95	0/3/2	ramping up
Michael Lorenzen	SP	MR	5.18	14.7	8.7	4.62	0/0/0	ramping up

CLE

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Cade Smith	CLOSER	CL	2.50	34.3	8.4	1.05	35/0/37	stable
Erik Sabrowski	SETUP	SU	2.82	38.5	15.4	0.78	1/23/2	stable
Colin Holderman	SETUP	MR	3.08	22.9	8.7	0.99	1/11/8	ramping down
Matt Festa	SETUP	MR	3.43	25.0	6.5	0.97	1/7/13	stable
Hunter Gaddis	SETUP	SU	3.90	22.3	9.4	0.86	1/27/2	stable
Tim Herrin	SETUP	MR	4.39	21.7	11.8	0.79	0/15/5	stable
Logan Allen	BULK	LR	4.96	22.4	6.0	3.67	0/0/1	insufficient data
Craig Yoho	MR	MR	5.15	24.2	10.6	1.33	0/1/5	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 TOR · 6 CLE

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

TOR

1 R

3H · 0HR · 1BB · 14K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.156 · SLGe 0.100 · K% 43.8

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 6 ER · 3 K · relief 7.0 IP · 5 arms

CLE

6 R

8H · 3HR · 3BB · 3K · 7LOB

OBPe 0.324 · SLGe 0.581 · K% 8.8

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 14 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

TOR · standout lines

tough nights

Brett Bateman (CF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
George Springer (DH) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Nathan Lukes (RF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

CLE · standout lines

big nights

Angel Martínez (RF) · 2-3 | HR, BB, 2 RBIHR
Angel Genao (2B) · 1-2 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR
Patrick Bailey (C) · 1-3 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR

tough nights

Chase DeLauter (DH) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K