Baseball Daily

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today's slate

BAL @ COL

Tuesday · September 1, 2026·full·gamePk 824313free Saturday

refreshed 591h 55m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Coors Field

gametime 8:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

83°F

humidity 24%

wind

7 mph

in from LF

precip

overcast

park

COL

open · HP→CF 0°

wind impact on total

-0.18 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.18 R/G vs neutral. _Altitude does most of the work; wind secondary but real — calm summer evenings let altitude effect peak_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Kyle BradishRHP · BAL	Gabriel HughesRHP · COL
xERA 2026	4.31	3.62
xwOBA 2026	0.320	0.295
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.009	0.039
xERA 2025	3.09	—
xwOBA 2025	0.275	—
Outs/TB 25-26	2.10	1.81
FIP 25-26	3.75	4.17
kwERA 25-26	3.61	4.32
K% 25-26	24.6%	18.0%
BB% 25-26	9.8%	9.0%
IP 25+26 combined	175.0	47.7
ERA actual 2026	4.03	6.61
ERA (L4)	5.59	10.50
WHIP (L4)	1.60	1.89
K% (L4)	16.7%	11.1%
BB% (L4)	9.5%	11.1%
IP/gm (L4)	4.83	4.50
L4 window	08/02→08/26 (4 st)	08/10→08/27 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	103 (+2)	80 (−7)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.51 (+0.18)	5.71 (+1.00)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.14	-0.13

away arsenal — BAL

RV/100 -0.14

Sinker—+0.30xwOBA 0.320
Slider—-1.10xwOBA 0.317
Curveball—+0.00xwOBA 0.262
4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.388

home arsenal — COL

RV/100 -0.13

4-Seam Fastball—+0.90xwOBA 0.295
Changeup—-0.60xwOBA 0.355
Curveball—-0.80xwOBA 0.212
Slider—-0.50xwOBA 0.214
Sinker—-3.00xwOBA 0.323
Sweeper—-2.30xwOBA 0.370

away · BAL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.852

Σ match

2.696

Σ FRV

-0.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Jackson Holliday	0.304	0.289	-3.0
2	DH	Pete Alonso	0.392	0.390	-1.2
3	SS	Gunnar Henderson	0.319	0.290	+0.9
4	3B	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0.343	0.320	+2.5
5	LF	Dylan Beavers	0.307	0.298	-5.9
6	1B	Samuel Basallo	0.321	0.298	-2.3
7	RF	Leody Taveras	0.279	0.267	-2.2
8	CF	Colton Cowser	0.324	0.313	+6.7
9	C	Carlos Narváez	0.263	0.231	+3.9

home · COL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.699

Σ match

2.814

Σ FRV

-1.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Jake McCarthy	0.320	0.320	-0.5
2	RF	Mickey Moniak	0.285	0.294	+0.1
3	DH	Hunter Goodman	0.329	0.363	-1.8
4	1B	TJ Rumfield	0.328	0.331	+6.2
5	SS	Cole Carrigg	0.320	0.320	+2.1
6	3B	Connor Norby	0.298	0.310	-0.6
7	C	Brett Sullivan	0.279	0.297	-5.2
8	2B	Adael Amador	0.256	0.283	+0.3
9	LF	Zac Veen	0.284	0.296	-2.1

defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)

Carlos Narváez

FRV+3.9
framing+2.0
blocking+2.3
throwing-0.4

defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)

Brett Sullivan

FRV-5.2
framing-3.2
blocking-0.3
throwing-1.7

BAL · Kyle Bradish

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs STL · 4.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	103
Location+	—	—	91
Pitching+	—	—	93
botOvr	—	—	47
SIERA	—	—	4.51

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-08 → 2026-08-26. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

COL · Gabriel Hughes

Last outing 2026-08-27 vs WSH · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	80
Location+	—	—	113
Pitching+	—	—	99
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	5.71

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-16 → 2026-08-27. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-27; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

BAL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.37–0.46]

0.097 R/PA · 0.138 R/out · worst: Albert Suárez (4.41)

COL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.46–0.51]

0.113 R/PA · 0.161 R/out · worst: Juan Mejia (4.57)

BAL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yennier Cano	SETUP	SU	2.37	22.2	5.6	0.74	3/12/6	stable
Grant Wolfram	SETUP	LR	3.06	25.0	7.4	0.80	1/12/3	stable
Andrew Kittredge	SETUP	CL	3.68	18.8	5.7	0.87	9/9/11	stable
Rico Garcia	SETUP	CL	4.15	26.0	8.7	0.93	6/17/16	stable
Albert Suárez	BULK	MR	4.39	16.5	8.3	2.54	1/0/9	stable
Alex Hoppe	MR	MR	2.84	25.3	8.9	1.14	1/5/13	stable
Josh Walker	MR	MR	3.65	22.2	7.4	1.20	0/3/3	ramping down
Cam Sanders	MR	MR	3.71	27.7	15.8	1.00	3/1/5	stable

COL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jordan Romano	CLOSER	CL	3.16	24.8	12.4	0.79	13/1/13	stable
Jaden Hill	SETUP	MR	3.99	22.2	13.2	0.83	2/12/4	stable
Juan Mejia	SETUP	MR	4.30	19.9	13.0	1.10	4/8/16	stable
Brennan Bernardino	OPENER	SU	3.45	17.7	6.0	0.86	1/11/7	stable
Jimmy Herget	OPENER	SU	5.21	20.0	11.6	0.99	3/9/10	stable
Zach Agnos	SWING	LR	4.46	15.0	7.8	2.28	2/0/10	stable
Blas Castaño	MR	MR	5.11	20.0	7.1	2.07	0/0/2	stable
Nick Frasso	unknown	MR	2.90	18.9	9.4	—	0/0/0	—
Mark Manfredi	unknown	MR	3.08	27.3	18.2	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 BAL · 4 COL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

BAL

2 R

7H · 1HR · 3BB · 9K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.297 · SLGe 0.333 · K% 24.3

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 3 ER · 6 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

COL

4 R

10H · 2HR · 3BB · 6K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.351 · SLGe 0.588 · K% 16.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 9 K · relief 4.3 IP · 6 arms

BAL · standout lines

big nights

Jackson Holliday (2B) · 3-5 | HR, K, RBIHR · 3 H

tough nights

Gunnar Henderson (SS) · 0-40-for-4
Leody Taveras (RF) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Colton Cowser (CF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

COL · standout lines

big nights

TJ Rumfield (1B) · 1-3 | HR, BB, KHR
Adael Amador (2B) · 2-4 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Hunter Goodman (DH) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Cole Carrigg (CF) · 0-40-for-4
Connor Norby (3B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4