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today's slate

CWS @ HOU

Tuesday · September 1, 2026·full·gamePk 824148free Saturday

refreshed 594h 27m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Daikin Park

gametime 8:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

84°F

humidity 76%

wind

3 mph

cross RF to LF

precip

12%

overcast

park

HOU

retractable · HP→CF 345°

wind impact on total

neutralnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Sean BurkeRHP · CWS	Ronel BlancoRHP · HOU
xERA 2026	3.70	5.42
xwOBA 2026	0.298	0.354
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.001	0.033
xERA 2025	4.93	3.19
xwOBA 2025	0.341	0.279
Outs/TB 25-26	1.95	1.93
FIP 25-26	4.25	5.13
kwERA 25-26	3.59	3.95
K% 25-26	24.4%	22.7%
BB% 25-26	9.3%	10.6%
IP 25+26 combined	283.3	71.7
ERA actual 2026	3.32	7.71
ERA (L4)	4.34	6.75
WHIP (L4)	1.50	1.43
K% (L4)	20.5%	14.5%
BB% (L4)	15.7%	12.9%
IP/gm (L4)	4.67	4.89
L4 window	08/05→08/26 (4 st)	07/26→08/07 (3 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	102 (+3)	94 (+0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.72 (+0.07)	4.30 (−0.54)
Arsenal RV/100	0.43	-2.15

away arsenal — CWS

RV/100 0.43

4-Seam Fastball—+1.30xwOBA 0.269
Curveball—-0.50xwOBA 0.266
Slider—-0.10xwOBA 0.324
Sinker—-0.20xwOBA 0.362
Cutter—+0.90xwOBA 0.370

home arsenal — HOU

RV/100 -2.15

4-Seam Fastball—-2.40xwOBA 0.443
Changeup—+0.60xwOBA 0.221
Slider—-7.90xwOBA 0.484
Curveball—-0.30xwOBA 0.276

away · CWS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.903

Σ match

3.251

Σ FRV

+10.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Sam Antonacci	0.341	0.381	-8.8
2	1B	Munetaka Murakami	0.361	0.435	-0.8
3	3B	Miguel Vargas	0.389	0.430	-4.0
4	DH	Andrew Benintendi	0.311	0.354	-1.6
5	SS	Colson Montgomery	0.303	0.314	+7.8
6	RF	Randal Grichuk	0.332	0.353	-1.7
7	CF	Tristan Peters	0.315	0.353	+9.9
8	2B	Chase Meidroth	0.294	0.332	+9.3
9	C	Drew Romo	0.257	0.299	+0.3

home · HOU vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.885

Σ match

2.852

Σ FRV

-9.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Jeremy Peña	0.331	0.325	-1.7
2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	0.452	0.456	-2.7
3	3B	Isaac Paredes	0.320	0.303	+0.8
4	2B	Jose Altuve	0.275	0.273	-5.6
5	LF	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.290	0.293	-0.6
6	1B	Christian Walker	0.303	0.290	+3.5
7	C	Yainer Diaz	0.302	0.289	-3.7
8	CF	Taylor Trammell	0.291	0.295	-1.9
9	RF	Cam Smith	0.321	0.327	+2.1

defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)

Drew Romo

FRV+0.3
framing+0.3
blocking-1.1
throwing+1.1

defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)

Yainer Diaz

FRV-3.7
framing-3.1
blocking-0.3
throwing-0.3

CWS · Sean Burke

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs TEX · 3.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	102
Location+	—	—	103
Pitching+	—	—	102
botOvr	—	—	54
SIERA	—	—	3.72

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-26. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

HOU · Ronel Blanco

Last outing 2026-08-07 vs SD · 4.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	94
Location+	—	—	101
Pitching+	—	—	95
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	4.30

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-26 → 2026-08-07. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-07; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CWS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.39–0.49]

0.104 R/PA · 0.147 R/out · worst: Tyler Schweitzer (4.82)

HOU · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.36–0.45]

0.095 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Bennett Sousa (4.31)

CWS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Sean Newcomb	SETUP	SU	2.86	22.7	8.6	1.51	4/11/6	ramping up
Grant Taylor	OPENER	CL	2.27	32.6	8.5	1.33	8/10/11	stable
Bryan Hudson	OPENER	CL	3.24	22.2	7.1	0.98	7/8/8	stable
Jordan Hicks	MR	MR	3.64	27.2	14.7	0.91	1/8/6	stable
Tyler Davis	MR	MR	3.99	21.1	13.8	1.10	1/0/6	stable
Trevor Richards	MR	MR	4.22	21.8	8.0	1.46	1/1/16	stable
Tyler Schweitzer	MR	LR	4.32	12.8	8.0	1.86	1/2/6	ramping up
Hagen Smith	unknown	MR	4.08	34.8	21.7	—	0/1/0	—

HOU

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Josh Hader	CLOSER	CL	1.70	35.8	8.2	0.91	21/0/14	stable
Bryan Abreu	CLOSER	SU	4.67	29.7	17.0	0.92	8/12/21	stable
Steven Okert	SETUP	SU	3.21	26.1	5.4	1.01	0/21/1	stable
Enyel De Los Santos	SETUP	MR	3.70	21.9	6.3	1.07	5/9/13	stable
AJ Blubaugh	SETUP	MR	3.86	24.9	9.8	1.68	1/9/6	ramping up
Kai-Wei Teng	SWING	MR	4.68	22.5	9.5	2.76	0/3/1	ramping up
Bennett Sousa	MOP_UP	MR	4.72	22.2	13.1	0.67	0/7/2	stable
Tatsuya Imai	SP	LR	4.48	27.6	14.6	3.86	0/0/0	ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 CWS · 1 HOU

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CWS

5 R

8H · 0HR · 7BB · 9K · 22LOB

OBPe 0.381 · SLGe 0.324 · K% 21.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 12 K · relief 3.3 IP · 4 arms

HOU

1 R

3H · 1HR · 6BB · 12K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.250 · SLGe 0.233 · K% 33.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 9 K · relief 5.0 IP · 3 arms

CWS · standout lines

tough nights

Munetaka Murakami (1B) · 0-4 | BB, 3 K, R0-for-4 · 3 K

HOU · standout lines

big nights

Isaac Paredes (3B) · 1-4 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Christian Walker (1B) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Yainer Diaz (C) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Cam Smith (RF) · 0-40-for-4