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today's slate

MIA @ KC

Tuesday · September 1, 2026·full·gamePk 824070free Saturday

refreshed 594h 28m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Kauffman Stadium

gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

97°F

humidity 26%

wind

9 mph

out to LF

precip

clear

park

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

+0.28 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.28 R/G vs neutral. _Open exposed bowl on prairie — summer south winds blow OUT to RF, plays huge_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Tyler PhillipsRHP · MIA	Randy DobnakRHP · KC
xERA 2026	4.74	4.56
xwOBA 2026	0.334	0.328
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.014	-0.028
xERA 2025	3.66	5.73
xwOBA 2025	0.298	0.364
Outs/TB 25-26	2.12	2.37
FIP 25-26	4.37	3.98
kwERA 25-26	4.32	4.82
K% 25-26	18.0%	14.4%
BB% 25-26	9.0%	9.6%
IP 25+26 combined	183.0	57.0
ERA actual 2026	3.59	1.92
ERA (L4)	2.89	2.66
WHIP (L4)	1.23	1.23
K% (L4)	24.1%	19.0%
BB% (L4)	7.6%	5.0%
IP/gm (L4)	4.67	5.92
L4 window	07/27→08/25 (4 st)	07/29→08/26 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	95 (−2)	85 (+4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.09 (−0.41)	5.52 (+0.85)
Arsenal RV/100	0.01	0.76

away arsenal — MIA

RV/100 0.01

Sinker—-1.90xwOBA 0.411
Sweeper—+1.40xwOBA 0.270
Split-Finger—+1.80xwOBA 0.267
Curveball—+0.50xwOBA 0.329
4-Seam Fastball—-4.50xwOBA 0.404

home arsenal — KC

RV/100 0.76

Sinker—+1.20xwOBA 0.377
Sweeper—+0.60xwOBA 0.332
Changeup—+0.40xwOBA 0.254
4-Seam Fastball—+1.50xwOBA 0.236
Slider—-1.80xwOBA 0.310

away · MIA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.773

Σ match

2.873

Σ FRV

+18.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Kyle Stowers	0.330	0.341	-1.4
2	1B	Griffin Conine	0.369	0.384	-2.0
3	LF	Heriberto Hernández	0.352	0.355	+0.8
4	CF	Jakob Marsee	0.302	0.308	+2.8
5	RF	Owen Caissie	0.300	0.294	-8.3
6	SS	Otto Lopez	0.324	0.351	+10.4
7	C	Joe Mack	0.294	0.298	+10.2
8	3B	Graham Pauley	0.219	0.250	+1.7
9	2B	Javier Sanoja	0.283	0.291	+3.8

home · KC vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.745

Σ match

2.849

Σ FRV

+7.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	C	Carter Jensen	0.291	0.297	+2.0
2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0.382	0.378	+18.1
3	RF	Jac Caglianone	0.361	0.347	-7.1
4	DH	Salvador Perez	0.303	0.339	-9.2
5	1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	0.328	0.335	+2.4
6	2B	Nick Loftin	0.295	0.308	-1.1
7	3B	Josh Rojas	0.219	0.257	-1.3
8	LF	Isaac Collins	0.299	0.308	+0.5
9	CF	Kyle Isbel	0.267	0.281	+3.3

defense · MIA catcher (Savant FRV)

Joe Mack

FRV+10.2
framing+6.0
blocking+0.6
throwing+3.6

defense · KC catcher (Savant FRV)

Carter Jensen

FRV+2.0
framing+2.6
blocking-2.8
throwing+2.2

MIA · Tyler Phillips

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs BOS · 4.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	95
Location+	—	—	79
Pitching+	—	—	73
botOvr	—	—	46
SIERA	—	—	4.09

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-25. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-25; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

KC · Randy Dobnak

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs TOR · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	85
Location+	—	—	103
Pitching+	—	—	85
botOvr	—	—	46
SIERA	—	—	5.52

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-09 → 2026-08-26. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.35–0.54]

0.105 R/PA · 0.148 R/out · worst: Victor Vodnik (4.94)

KC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.42–0.53]

0.112 R/PA · 0.159 R/out · worst: Anthony Gose (5.40)

MIA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Calvin Faucher	SETUP	SU	2.90	25.8	12.9	0.98	2/14/7	stable
Michael Petersen	SETUP	SU	3.43	28.6	11.3	1.06	1/22/4	stable
Dax Fulton	BULK	LR	3.39	21.2	16.7	2.50	0/0/3	ramping down
Tyler Zuber	MR	SU	4.19	26.2	4.6	0.87	1/8/5	stable
Cade Gibson	MR	MR	4.34	17.8	10.6	1.28	0/4/7	stable
Victor Vodnik	MR	MR	4.35	16.4	12.6	1.08	4/6/12	stable
Josh Ekness	MR	MR	4.55	17.7	11.4	0.89	1/1/2	stable
Jack Ralston	unknown	MR	4.08	21.1	0.0	—	0/1/0	—

KC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Alex Lange	CLOSER	MR	4.33	23.1	11.5	1.03	10/3/20	stable
Connor Thomas	BULK	MR	8.05	12.1	10.6	3.67	0/2/0	insufficient data
Steven Cruz	OPENER	CL	5.21	25.8	8.8	1.06	6/5/7	stable
Jose Cuas	MR	LR	2.74	23.9	13.4	1.27	0/3/4	ramping down
Craig Kimbrel	MR	MR	4.13	21.5	11.0	1.03	1/1/15	stable
Easton McGee	MR	MR	6.35	20.0	11.4	1.00	0/0/2	insufficient data
Anthony Gose	unknown	MR	3.08	0.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Nate Pearson	unknown	MR	3.68	20.3	12.6	—	3/4/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 MIA · 3 KC

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIA

6 R

8H · 2HR · 2BB · 8K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.306 · SLGe 0.485 · K% 22.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 6 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms

KC

3 R

6H · 1HR · 3BB · 6K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.257 · SLGe 0.323 · K% 17.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 8 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

MIA · standout lines

big nights

Kyle Stowers (DH) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR
Graham Pauley (3B) · 2-4 | HR, 3B, KHR · 7 TB · 4 RBI

tough nights

Heriberto Hernández (LF) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

KC · standout lines

big nights

Nick Loftin (2B) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR

tough nights

Salvador Perez (DH) · 0-40-for-4