Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

NYY @ LAA

Tuesday · September 1, 2026·full·gamePk 823984free Saturday

refreshed 592h 59m ago both lineups confirmed

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Gerrit ColeRHP · NYY	Grayson RodriguezRHP · LAA
xERA 2026	3.29	5.46
xwOBA 2026	0.282	0.355
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.005	0.004
xERA 2025	—	—
xwOBA 2025	—	—
Outs/TB 25-26	2.04	1.62
FIP 25-26	3.36	4.63
kwERA 25-26	2.89	4.13
K% 25-26	26.1%	20.2%
BB% 25-26	5.2%	9.6%
IP 25+26 combined	98.7	71.7
ERA actual 2026	3.19	6.03
ERA (L4)	2.55	4.34
WHIP (L4)	1.09	1.50
K% (L4)	24.0%	27.7%
BB% (L4)	6.0%	10.8%
IP/gm (L4)	6.17	4.67
L4 window	08/02→08/27 (4 st)	07/29→08/26 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	104 (+2)	103 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.19 (−0.23)	3.71 (−0.83)
Arsenal RV/100	0.68	-0.97

away arsenal — NYY

RV/100 0.68

4-Seam Fastball—+1.70xwOBA 0.268
Slider—+0.80xwOBA 0.283
Changeup—+0.20xwOBA 0.256
Curveball—-1.80xwOBA 0.302
Sinker—-2.20xwOBA 0.546

home arsenal — LAA

RV/100 -0.97

4-Seam Fastball—-0.60xwOBA 0.371
Changeup—-0.20xwOBA 0.273
Slider—-3.40xwOBA 0.395
Curveball—-2.10xwOBA 0.392

away · NYY vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.907

Σ match

3.315

Σ FRV

+10.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Ben Rice	0.374	0.464	-4.6
2	LF	Cody Bellinger	0.345	0.389	+8.4
3	1B	Luis García Jr.	0.353	0.414	+0.6
4	RF	Spencer Jones	0.327	0.338	-2.5
5	2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.295	0.332	+5.3
6	CF	Trent Grisham	0.336	0.407	-4.6
7	3B	Ryan McMahon	0.304	0.353	+2.0
8	SS	José Caballero	0.283	0.304	+0.3
9	C	Austin Wells	0.290	0.314	+5.5

home · LAA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.660

Σ match

2.406

Σ FRV

+0.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Zach Neto	0.306	0.280	-2.5
2	CF	Mike Trout	0.379	0.324	-3.0
3	LF	Wade Meckler	0.311	0.286	+2.0
4	1B	Vaughn Grissom	0.315	0.291	-4.4
5	DH	Moisés Ballesteros	0.289	0.251	-1.5
6	2B	Christian Moore	0.259	0.259	-1.7
7	RF	Josh Lowe	0.287	0.256	+5.0
8	3B	Oswald Peraza	0.274	0.246	-0.2
9	C	Tyler Heineman	0.240	0.212	+6.4

defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)

Austin Wells

FRV+5.5
framing+5.3
blocking+1.4
throwing-1.2

defense · LAA catcher (Savant FRV)

Tyler Heineman

FRV+6.4
framing+4.7
blocking-0.5
throwing+2.2

NYY · Gerrit Cole

Last outing 2026-08-27 vs HOU · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	104
Location+	—	—	104
Pitching+	—	—	102
botOvr	—	—	54
SIERA	—	—	3.19

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-08 → 2026-08-27. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-27; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

LAA · Grayson Rodriguez

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs CLE · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	103
Location+	—	—	96
Pitching+	—	—	94
botOvr	—	—	56
SIERA	—	—	3.71

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-09 → 2026-08-26. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

NYY · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.37–0.52]

0.104 R/PA · 0.148 R/out · worst: Tim Hill (4.72)

LAA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.29–0.47]

0.090 R/PA · 0.127 R/out · worst: Luke Murphy (4.38)

NYY

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
David Bednar	CLOSER	CL	2.55	27.0	7.5	1.10	31/0/35	stable
Brent Headrick	SETUP	SU	2.25	30.2	7.4	1.01	0/23/6	stable
John Schreiber	SETUP	SU	4.86	17.7	10.8	0.91	1/14/5	stable
Tim Hill	SETUP	MR	5.38	10.8	5.2	0.84	2/10/6	stable
Paul Blackburn	OPENER	SU	3.61	20.7	9.4	1.53	1/9/13	stable
Ryan Yarbrough	MR	LR	3.76	17.3	9.3	1.59	3/1/14	stable
Michael Fulmer	unknown	MR	2.76	25.0	10.7	—	0/2/0	—

LAA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Samy Natera Jr.	MR	MR	1.67	40.4	9.6	1.16	3/4/3	stable
Tayler Saucedo	MR	SU	2.46	28.8	5.1	0.56	0/5/0	stable
José Fermin	MR	MR	4.00	27.1	10.3	1.11	1/7/7	stable
Ryan Watson	MR	SU	4.19	19.6	8.0	1.61	2/4/21	stable
Mitch Farris	MR	LR	4.94	24.3	11.4	2.12	1/1/6	stable
Ben Joyce	unknown	CL	2.36	36.4	15.2	—	3/2/0	—
Blake Weiman	unknown	MR	2.68	21.3	2.1	—	0/2/0	—
Luke Murphy	unknown	MR	3.32	25.5	17.0	—	0/4/0	—
Sammy Peralta	unknown	MR	6.08	26.9	7.7	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

7 NYY · 3 LAA

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

NYY

7 R

14H · 2HR · 4BB · 12K · 27LOB

OBPe 0.409 · SLGe 0.538 · K% 27.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 8 K · relief 3.7 IP · 4 arms

LAA

3 R

9H · 0HR · 1BB · 8K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.286 · SLGe 0.353 · K% 22.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 7 ER · 12 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

NYY · standout lines

big nights

Cody Bellinger (LF) · 3-5 | K, 2 R3 H
Spencer Jones (RF) · 2-3 | HR, 2 BB, KHR
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2B) · 3-5 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR · 3 H

tough nights

José Caballero (SS) · 0-5 | 3 K0-for-5 · 3 K

LAA · standout lines

big nights

Wade Meckler (RF) · 3-4 | RBI, R3 H

tough nights

Mike Trout (CF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Vaughn Grissom (1B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K