Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

STL @ LAD

Tuesday · September 1, 2026·full·gamePk 823908free Saturday

refreshed 591h 22m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Dodger Stadium

gametime 10:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

70°F

humidity 71%

wind

6 mph

out to RF

precip

clear

park

LAD

open · HP→CF 28°

wind impact on total

+0.10 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Michael McGreevyRHP · STL	Eric LauerLHP · LAD
xERA 2026	5.38	4.78
xwOBA 2026	0.353	0.335
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.033	0.001
xERA 2025	4.64	3.88
xwOBA 2025	0.332	0.306
Outs/TB 25-26	1.82	1.81
FIP 25-26	4.32	4.82
kwERA 25-26	4.21	3.85
K% 25-26	15.8%	19.8%
BB% 25-26	5.9%	6.8%
IP 25+26 combined	238.0	210.0
ERA actual 2026	3.86	4.78
ERA (L4)	5.14	4.64
WHIP (L4)	1.62	1.22
K% (L4)	18.6%	18.5%
BB% (L4)	7.2%	4.3%
IP/gm (L4)	5.25	5.33
L4 window	08/03→08/26 (4 st)	07/29→08/18 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	79 (−3)	91 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.26 (−0.25)	5.00 (−0.10)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.01	-0.64

away arsenal — STL

RV/100 -0.01

4-Seam Fastball—-0.60xwOBA 0.392
Changeup—+0.60xwOBA 0.310
Sinker—+2.10xwOBA 0.316
Curveball—+0.20xwOBA 0.269
Cutter—+0.00xwOBA 0.402
Sweeper—-2.80xwOBA 0.453
Slider—-1.30xwOBA 0.398

home arsenal — LAD

RV/100 -0.64

4-Seam Fastball—-0.50xwOBA 0.378
Cutter—+0.30xwOBA 0.314
Changeup—-1.10xwOBA 0.312
Curveball—-1.70xwOBA 0.324
Slider—-1.60xwOBA 0.246

away · STL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.534

Σ match

2.964

Σ FRV

-12.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	José Fermín	0.294	0.304	-2.7
2	DH	Iván Herrera	0.330	0.345	-4.3
3	RF	Jordan Walker	0.352	0.391	-6.4
4	1B	Alec Burleson	0.380	0.398	+3.8
5	LF	Joshua Báez	0.299	0.311	-0.5
6	C	Leo Bernal	—	0.285	—
7	3B	Ramón Urías	0.308	0.329	-3.3
8	SS	Thomas Saggese	0.288	0.288	+0.2
9	CF	Nathan Church	0.283	0.314	+0.6

home · LAD vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

3.064

Σ match

3.508

Σ FRV

+5.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Shohei Ohtani	0.402	0.467	—
2	1B	Freddie Freeman	0.373	0.428	+3.7
3	SS	Mookie Betts	0.325	0.368	+8.2
4	3B	Max Muncy	0.349	0.403	+3.1
5	C	Will Smith	0.385	0.453	-0.9
6	RF	Kyle Tucker	0.325	0.371	-7.5
7	CF	Tommy Edman	0.314	0.347	+2.2
8	LF	Teoscar Hernández	0.315	0.359	-5.5
9	2B	Alex Freeland	0.276	0.313	+1.9

defense · STL catcher (Savant FRV)

Leo Bernal

FRV—
framing—
blocking—
throwing—

defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)

Will Smith

FRV-0.9
framing-1.3
blocking+0.8
throwing-0.3

STL · Michael McGreevy

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs BAL · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	79
Location+	—	—	115
Pitching+	—	—	100
botOvr	—	—	50
SIERA	—	—	4.26

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-09 → 2026-08-26. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

LAD · Eric Lauer

Last outing 2026-08-18 vs COL · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	91
Location+	—	—	109
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	50
SIERA	—	—	5.00

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-05 → 2026-08-18. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-18; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

STL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.37–0.54]

0.106 R/PA · 0.151 R/out · worst: Gordon Graceffo (4.73)

LAD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.30–0.47]

0.091 R/PA · 0.128 R/out · worst: Seth Halvorsen (5.29)

STL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Riley O'Brien	CLOSER	CL	3.63	23.0	9.8	0.99	34/1/33	stable
Justin Bruihl	SETUP	MR	3.83	15.0	8.5	1.11	0/10/5	ramping up
George Soriano	SETUP	SU	4.57	23.0	10.7	0.98	2/20/7	stable
Ryne Stanek	SETUP	SU	4.81	24.6	12.3	0.89	2/24/5	stable
Brycen Mautz	BULK	LR	3.41	34.5	10.3	3.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Ryan Fernandez	MR	MR	3.23	28.1	10.1	1.21	0/2/4	ramping down
Gordon Graceffo	MR	MR	4.12	16.7	11.2	1.18	1/6/10	stable
Luis Gastelum	MR	MR	4.20	31.4	7.8	1.00	0/1/1	stable
Cade Winquest	unknown	MR	2.58	33.3	16.7	—	0/0/0	—

LAD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Tanner Scott	CLOSER	CL	2.30	31.5	5.6	0.94	20/12/21	stable
Edgardo Henriquez	SETUP	SU	2.61	28.6	10.5	1.05	1/9/5	stable
Alex Vesia	SETUP	MR	3.37	29.2	15.3	0.76	3/18/6	stable
Kyle Hurt	SETUP	LR	3.82	28.8	12.5	1.01	1/9/10	stable
Jack Dreyer	MR	MR	3.49	30.1	9.1	1.01	1/10/9	stable
Brock Stewart	MR	MR	3.82	25.0	11.1	1.06	1/7/2	stable
Evan Phillips	MR	SU	4.50	28.0	6.7	1.00	0/5/3	stable
Seth Halvorsen	MOP_UP	MR	5.63	15.9	15.0	0.90	0/2/4	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

13 STL · 8 LAD

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

STL

13 R

13H · 5HR · 3BB · 10K · 9LOB

OBPe 0.386 · SLGe 0.763 · K% 22.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 7 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

LAD

8 R

9H · 0HR · 6BB · 7K · 23LOB

OBPe 0.364 · SLGe 0.333 · K% 15.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 12 ER · 10 K · relief 6.0 IP · 6 arms

STL · standout lines

big nights

Jordan Walker (RF) · 3-5 | HR, 2B, 2 KHR · 3 H · 7 TB
Joshua Báez (LF) · 1-3 | HR, HBP, KHR
Ramón Urías (3B) · 1-2 | HR, BB, KHR
Thomas Saggese (SS) · 2-3 | 2 HR, BB, 3 RBI2-HR night · 8 TB

tough nights

Alec Burleson (1B) · 0-5 | K0-for-5

LAD · standout lines

big nights

Mookie Betts (SS) · 2-3 | 2 2B, 2 BB, 4 RBI4 TB · 4 RBI
Tommy Edman (2B) · 3-5 | RBI, R3 H