Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

DET @ MIN

Tuesday · September 1, 2026·full·gamePk 823661free Saturday

refreshed 594h 31m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Target Field

gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

84°F

humidity 38%

wind

4 mph

out to RF

precip

overcast

park

MIN

open · HP→CF 73°

wind impact on total

+0.09 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

opener / bulk pattern

MIN: Andrew Morris opens → bulk: no confident pattern

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Troy MeltonRHP · DET	Andrew MorrisRHP · MIN
xERA 2026	3.41	3.05
xwOBA 2026	0.287	0.272
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.017	0.027
xERA 2025	3.64	—
xwOBA 2025	0.297	—
Outs/TB 25-26	2.45	2.15
FIP 25-26	4.00	3.17
kwERA 25-26	3.84	3.79
K% 25-26	20.6%	21.5%
BB% 25-26	7.7%	8.0%
IP 25+26 combined	142.7	63.7
ERA actual 2026	1.86	3.82
ERA (L4)	2.22	16.20
WHIP (L4)	1.11	2.10
K% (L4)	18.9%	10.5%
BB% (L4)	4.2%	0.0%
IP/gm (L4)	6.08	0.83
L4 window	07/28→08/26 (4 st)	08/18→08/26 (4 outs)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	101 (+0)	111 (+7)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.01 (+0.89)	3.19 (−0.60)
Arsenal RV/100	1.01	0.49

away arsenal — DET

RV/100 1.01

4-Seam Fastball—+0.70xwOBA 0.326
Cutter—+2.90xwOBA 0.283
Slider—+0.60xwOBA 0.260
Changeup—-1.20xwOBA 0.219
Sinker—+0.50xwOBA 0.309
Curveball—+1.80xwOBA 0.290

home arsenal · BULK Andrew Morris — MIN

RV/100 0.49

4-Seam Fastball—+1.70xwOBA 0.268
Cutter—-0.20xwOBA 0.274
Sinker—-0.80xwOBA 0.389
Changeup—-1.20xwOBA 0.265
Sweeper—-0.30xwOBA 0.159

away · DET vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.577

Σ match

2.648

Σ FRV

-4.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Kevin McGonigle	0.353	0.331	+0.1
2	2B	Gleyber Torres	0.325	0.281	+2.2
3	C	Dillon Dingler	0.347	0.320	+11.6
4	LF	Riley Greene	0.363	0.323	-4.9
5	3B	Hao-Yu Lee	0.307	0.276	-8.1
6	1B	Spencer Torkelson	0.309	0.294	-6.8
7	CF	Max Clark	0.306	0.278	+2.6
8	RF	Javier Báez	0.267	0.260	-1.0
9	SS	John Peck	—	0.285	—

home · MIN vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.860

Σ match

2.701

Σ FRV

-22.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Luke Keaschall	0.315	0.290	-10.6
2	3B	Brooks Lee	0.274	0.266	-2.3
3	2B	Kody Clemens	0.335	0.311	-2.1
4	C	Ryan Jeffers	0.357	0.329	-2.4
5	DH	Josh Bell	0.326	0.320	-0.9
6	LF	Trevor Larnach	0.328	0.306	-1.1
7	1B	Royce Lewis	0.313	0.285	-2.0
8	SS	Kaelen Culpepper	0.328	0.306	-1.2
9	CF	Walker Jenkins	0.284	0.290	+0.3

defense · DET catcher (Savant FRV)

Dillon Dingler

FRV+11.6
framing+7.0
blocking+2.3
throwing+2.4

defense · MIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Ryan Jeffers

FRV-2.4
framing-0.3
blocking+0.5
throwing-2.6

DET · Troy Melton

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs TB · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	101
Location+	—	—	104
Pitching+	—	—	105
botOvr	—	—	57
SIERA	—	—	5.01

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-09 → 2026-08-26. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

MIN · Andrew Morris

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs ATH · 1.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	111
Location+	—	—	121
Pitching+	—	—	130
botOvr	—	—	66
SIERA	—	—	3.19

Last 3 outings: 2026-08-22 → 2026-08-26. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

DET · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.34–0.56]

0.106 R/PA · 0.150 R/out · worst: Yilber Díaz (5.88)

MIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.48]

0.095 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Kody Funderburk (4.62)

DET

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kenley Jansen	CLOSER	CL	5.01	27.7	13.5	0.89	17/1/22	stable
Kyle Finnegan	SETUP	SU	5.20	18.1	13.4	1.05	2/14/3	stable
Tyler Kinley	SETUP	MR	5.33	22.6	11.6	0.87	1/11/9	stable
Tyler Holton	OPENER	SU	4.14	18.8	6.0	1.06	2/14/8	stable
Drew Sommers	MR	MR	2.15	38.0	9.9	0.63	0/10/1	stable
Jacob Waguespack	MR	MR	5.03	15.1	8.7	1.30	0/4/4	stable
Beau Brieske	MR	MR	6.83	20.5	10.3	1.17	0/0/6	stable
Yilber Díaz	MOP_UP	LR	12.08	16.0	20.0	0.67	0/0/0	insufficient data
Andrew Sears	unknown	MR	4.28	14.3	3.6	—	0/0/0	—

MIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yoendrys Gómez	CLOSER	CL	4.59	21.2	12.5	1.12	20/6/26	ramping down
Jeff Hoffman	SETUP	SU	2.60	33.5	9.7	0.94	5/16/16	stable
Taylor Rogers	SETUP	MR	4.07	18.8	10.7	0.82	2/9/10	stable
Kody Funderburk	SETUP	MR	4.12	19.5	13.0	0.94	1/10/1	stable
Andrew Morris	OPENER	MR	3.17	21.5	8.0	1.31	4/20/6	ramping down
Garrett Acton	MR	MR	2.18	32.1	10.7	1.67	0/0/3	ramping down
Tommy Nance	MR	MR	3.32	25.8	8.9	1.04	0/6/4	stable
A.J. Minter	MR	SU	3.89	21.2	4.4	1.00	0/6/8	stable
Travis Adams	MR	LR	4.23	25.9	10.4	1.46	2/1/6	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 DET · 15 MIN

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

DET

2 R

8H · 0HR · 1BB · 8K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.289 · SLGe 0.286 · K% 21.1

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 13 ER · 6 K · relief 2.7 IP · 4 arms

MIN

15 R

13H · 3HR · 6BB · 6K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.444 · SLGe 0.730 · K% 13.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 8 K · relief 8.0 IP · 4 arms

DET · standout lines

tough nights

Riley Greene (LF) · 0-4 | 2 K, RBI0-for-4 · 2 K
Javier Báez (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
John Peck (SS) · 0-40-for-4

MIN · standout lines

big nights

Kody Clemens (2B) · 1-3 | HR, BB, KHR
Ryan Jeffers (C) · 2-4 | HR, 3B, 3 RBIHR · 7 TB
Royce Lewis (1B) · 3-4 | HR, 2B, BBHR · 3 H · 7 TB

tough nights

Walker Jenkins (CF) · 0-4 | BB, 2 R0-for-4