Baseball Daily

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today's slate

SF @ PIT

Tuesday · September 1, 2026·full·gamePk 823340free Saturday

refreshed 593h 54m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · PNC Park

gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

86°F

humidity 61%

wind

9 mph

out to LF

precip

clear

park

PIT

open · HP→CF 115°

wind impact on total

+0.20 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.20 R/G vs neutral. _PNC's riverside location + grandstand pattern creates swirl in RF; calm most days_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Logan WebbRHP · SF	Paul SkenesRHP · PIT
xERA 2026	3.91	3.12
xwOBA 2026	0.306	0.275
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.026	0.016
xERA 2025	3.58	2.65
xwOBA 2025	0.295	0.255
Outs/TB 25-26	2.16	2.47
FIP 25-26	2.92	2.62
kwERA 25-26	3.26	2.61
K% 25-26	23.4%	29.5%
BB% 25-26	5.6%	6.2%
IP 25+26 combined	354.7	332.7
ERA actual 2026	3.72	3.79
ERA (L4)	1.38	3.10
WHIP (L4)	0.81	1.13
K% (L4)	23.2%	23.2%
BB% (L4)	3.0%	11.0%
IP/gm (L4)	6.50	5.08
L4 window	08/03→08/26 (4 st)	08/05→08/25 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	96 (−3)	98 (−0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.79 (+0.85)	4.90 (+1.72)
Arsenal RV/100	1.01	0.53

away arsenal — SF

RV/100 1.01

Sinker—+2.10xwOBA 0.351
Changeup—-0.10xwOBA 0.287
Sweeper—+1.00xwOBA 0.293
4-Seam Fastball—+1.60xwOBA 0.250
Cutter—+0.10xwOBA 0.299

home arsenal — PIT

RV/100 0.53

4-Seam Fastball—+1.10xwOBA 0.279
Sweeper—+0.80xwOBA 0.215
Changeup—-1.80xwOBA 0.246
Split-Finger—+0.80xwOBA 0.328
Sinker—+0.00xwOBA 0.323
Slider—+1.30xwOBA 0.255

away · SF vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.700

Σ match

2.453

Σ FRV

-14.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Turner Hill	0.351	0.322	-1.3
2	DH	Rafael Devers	0.333	0.282	-4.7
3	1B	Bryce Eldridge	0.355	0.335	+0.3
4	CF	Jonah Cox	0.284	0.254	+0.6
5	RF	Jung Hoo Lee	0.320	0.279	-5.8
6	2B	Osleivis Basabe	0.280	0.248	-3.4
7	C	Drew Cavanaugh	0.323	0.289	-1.2
8	3B	Shay Whitcomb	0.225	0.243	-1.1
9	SS	Christian Koss	0.229	0.200	+2.2

home · PIT vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.882

Σ match

2.781

Σ FRV

-9.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	1B	Spencer Horwitz	0.316	0.302	-4.0
2	2B	Brandon Lowe	0.321	0.309	+9.8
3	LF	Bryan Reynolds	0.349	0.347	-3.6
4	DH	Nick Gonzales	0.323	0.302	-9.6
5	CF	Oneil Cruz	0.358	0.350	-0.5
6	RF	Esmerlyn Valdez	0.336	0.318	-1.9
7	SS	Jacob Gonzalez	0.302	0.282	-1.8
8	3B	Jared Triolo	0.294	0.295	-0.3
9	C	Henry Davis	0.283	0.276	+2.5

defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)

Drew Cavanaugh

FRV-1.2
framing-1.9
blocking+0.2
throwing+0.5

defense · PIT catcher (Savant FRV)

Henry Davis

FRV+2.5
framing+0.2
blocking+0.3
throwing+1.9

SF · Logan Webb

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs CIN · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	96
Location+	—	—	100
Pitching+	—	—	99
botOvr	—	—	53
SIERA	—	—	4.79

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-09 → 2026-08-26. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

PIT · Paul Skenes

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs SD · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	98
Location+	—	—	99
Pitching+	—	—	98
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	4.90

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-25. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-25; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SF · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.47R / inningband [0.34–0.60]

0.110 R/PA · 0.156 R/out · worst: Ryan Walker (4.99)

PIT · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.35–0.42]

0.091 R/PA · 0.129 R/out · worst: Camilo Doval (4.11)

SF

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jason Foley	MR	MR	3.34	17.6	7.4	1.00	0/2/0	insufficient data
Dylan Smith	MR	CL	3.47	29.1	11.2	0.88	3/7/5	stable
Reiver Sanmartin	MR	MR	4.49	20.6	5.9	1.67	0/2/1	insufficient data
Carson Seymour	MR	SU	4.96	18.8	10.6	2.17	1/5/0	insufficient data
Ryan Walker	MR	MR	5.50	15.1	11.6	0.98	3/4/10	stable
Braxton Roxby	unknown	LR	1.08	33.3	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Trent Harris	unknown	SU	1.71	31.9	10.6	—	0/3/0	—

PIT

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kirby Yates	CLOSER	MR	3.28	27.8	10.1	0.87	3/1/15	stable
Gregory Soto	CLOSER	SU	3.30	27.8	9.8	0.99	14/10/21	stable
Luke Weaver	SETUP	SU	2.63	27.1	6.9	1.05	1/17/4	stable
Evan Sisk	SETUP	MR	3.48	26.4	11.0	1.14	0/5/5	stable
Yohan Ramírez	SETUP	MR	3.61	27.3	13.3	1.28	2/7/8	stable
Mason Montgomery	OPENER	CL	2.23	39.2	9.7	0.97	7/9/7	stable
Brandon Eisert	OPENER	MR	4.07	26.7	8.0	1.05	0/2/5	stable
Lake Bachar	OPENER	LR	4.63	25.0	9.7	1.53	2/1/10	stable
Camilo Doval	MOP_UP	MR	4.59	23.2	12.4	0.90	1/6/10	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

12 SF · 13 PIT

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SF

12 R

16H · 1HR · 8BB · 8K · 22LOB

OBPe 0.500 · SLGe 0.550 · K% 16.0

Their pitching

8.7 IP · 12 ER · 8 K · relief 6.7 IP · 5 arms

PIT

13 R

19H · 1HR · 4BB · 8K · 26LOB

OBPe 0.510 · SLGe 0.523 · K% 15.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 12 ER · 8 K · relief 4.3 IP · 7 arms

SF · standout lines

big nights

Turner Hill (LF) · 4-5 | HBP, K, RBI4 H · 4 TB
Rafael Devers (1B) · 1-4 | HR, 2 BB, KHR
Drew Cavanaugh (C) · 3-5 | 2 2B, K, 2 RBI3 H · 5 TB

tough nights

Jung Hoo Lee (RF) · 0-5 | BB, RBI, R0-for-5

PIT · standout lines

big nights

Brandon Lowe (2B) · 4-6 | HR, RBI, 3 RHR · 4 H · 7 TB
Nick Gonzales (DH) · 3-5 | HBP, RBI, R3 H
Oneil Cruz (CF) · 4-6 | K, 4 RBI, R4 H · 4 TB · 4 RBI