Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

NYM @ TB

Tuesday · September 1, 2026·full·gamePk 822929free Saturday

refreshed 594h 32m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · George M. Steinbrenner Field

gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

83°F

humidity 73%

wind

5 mph

in from CF

precip

54%

overcast

park

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

-0.19 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.19 R/G vs neutral. _Steinbrenner Field is fully open spring training park — first wind-sensitive home for the Rays since Tropicana_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Sean ManaeaLHP · NYM	Freddy PeraltaRHP · TB
xERA 2026	4.81	3.97
xwOBA 2026	0.336	0.308
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.010	0.033
xERA 2025	3.99	3.43
xwOBA 2025	0.310	0.289
Outs/TB 25-26	1.65	2.16
FIP 25-26	4.50	4.03
kwERA 25-26	3.24	3.45
K% 25-26	24.5%	25.2%
BB% 25-26	6.5%	8.9%
IP 25+26 combined	183.3	317.7
ERA actual 2026	4.55	5.11
ERA (L4)	4.68	3.05
WHIP (L4)	1.08	1.02
K% (L4)	24.3%	17.1%
BB% (L4)	4.9%	7.3%
IP/gm (L4)	6.25	5.17
L4 window	07/29→08/27 (4 st)	07/26→08/26 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	101 (−3)	95 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.14 (+0.25)	4.21 (−0.07)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.61	-0.40

away arsenal — NYM

RV/100 -0.61

4-Seam Fastball—+0.30xwOBA 0.335
Sweeper—-1.90xwOBA 0.279
Sinker—+0.20xwOBA 0.395
Cutter—-1.60xwOBA 0.387
Changeup—-1.60xwOBA 0.366

home arsenal — TB

RV/100 -0.40

4-Seam Fastball—-0.50xwOBA 0.342
Changeup—-0.30xwOBA 0.277
Curveball—-0.10xwOBA 0.236
Sweeper—-0.60xwOBA 0.249
Slider—-0.50xwOBA 0.450

away · NYM vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.844

Σ match

2.941

Σ FRV

+6.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Francisco Lindor	0.337	0.328	+0.2
2	DH	Juan Soto	0.422	0.443	-3.3
3	3B	Bo Bichette	0.322	0.318	-0.4
4	RF	Carson Benge	0.338	0.330	+6.0
5	1B	Jared Young	0.310	0.320	-0.6
6	2B	Brett Baty	0.305	0.313	-1.1
7	C	Francisco Alvarez	0.322	0.308	-1.0
8	CF	A.J. Ewing	0.315	0.322	+6.5
9	LF	Nick Morabito	0.173	0.259	+0.5

home · TB vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.742

Σ match

2.921

Σ FRV

+1.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Yandy Díaz	0.351	0.363	—
2	1B	Ryan Vilade	0.331	0.327	-2.5
3	3B	Junior Caminero	0.365	0.401	-10.7
4	CF	Jonny DeLuca	0.268	0.294	+8.4
5	2B	Jorge Mateo	0.318	0.355	+0.2
6	LF	Chandler Simpson	0.262	0.275	+2.7
7	C	Nick Fortes	0.279	0.293	-0.7
8	RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	0.318	0.328	+6.2
9	SS	Taylor Walls	0.250	0.284	-2.5

defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)

Francisco Alvarez

FRV-1.0
framing+0.8
blocking-1.8
throwing+0.1

defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)

Nick Fortes

FRV-0.7
framing-1.0
blocking-0.1
throwing+0.4

NYM · Sean Manaea

Last outing 2026-08-27 vs MIL · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	101
Location+	—	—	99
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	54
SIERA	—	—	4.14

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-09 → 2026-08-27. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-27; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

TB · Freddy Peralta

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs DET · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	95
Location+	—	—	109
Pitching+	—	—	104
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	4.21

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-10 → 2026-08-26. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

NYM · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.29–0.48]

0.090 R/PA · 0.128 R/out · worst: Jefry Yan (4.88)

TB · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.30–0.46]

0.090 R/PA · 0.127 R/out · worst: Manuel Rodríguez (4.60)

NYM

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kodai Senga	BULK	CL	5.97	25.8	14.7	3.39	5/0/1	ramping down
Austin Warren	OPENER	MR	4.13	25.7	11.2	1.35	0/1/9	stable
Daniel Duarte	MR	SU	2.96	26.9	6.5	1.67	2/6/2	insufficient data
Jonathan Pintaro	MR	MR	5.21	25.0	13.5	2.47	0/1/2	ramping up
Chris Devenski	MOP_UP	LR	4.99	18.8	0.0	0.78	0/1/1	insufficient data
Nate Lavender	unknown	SU	1.44	32.4	5.4	—	0/7/0	—
Dedniel Núñez	unknown	MR	4.92	23.3	0.0	—	0/2/0	—
Jefry Yan	unknown	MR	5.18	23.9	19.6	—	0/1/0	—

TB

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Bryan Baker	CLOSER	CL	2.87	28.6	8.1	0.96	39/2/28	stable
Kevin Kelly	SETUP	SU	3.19	21.1	4.6	1.10	4/28/9	stable
Garrett Cleavinger	SETUP	MR	3.49	31.0	10.3	0.88	2/23/3	stable
Tyler Wells	SETUP	SU	3.51	25.6	6.3	1.26	5/14/13	stable
Casey Legumina	OPENER	MR	3.51	18.0	5.5	1.25	0/7/7	stable
Steven Matz	SWING	LR	5.25	17.4	7.2	3.53	1/1/1	ramping down
Cam Booser	MR	MR	3.30	31.4	5.0	1.11	0/9/5	stable
Manuel Rodríguez	unknown	MR	3.74	33.3	26.7	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 NYM · 6 TB

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

NYM

2 R

3H · 1HR · 4BB · 10K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.229 · SLGe 0.200 · K% 28.6

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 6 ER · 4 K · relief 2.3 IP · 4 arms

TB

6 R

13H · 1HR · 1BB · 4K · 21LOB

OBPe 0.359 · SLGe 0.600 · K% 10.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 10 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

NYM · standout lines

big nights

Francisco Lindor (SS) · 1-3 | HR, BB, KHR

tough nights

Juan Soto (DH) · 0-40-for-4
Jared Young (LF) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K, R0-for-3 · 2 K
Francisco Alvarez (C) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

TB · standout lines

big nights

Yandy Díaz (DH) · 2-4 | HR, 2B, BBHR
Ryan Vilade (1B) · 2-5 | 3B, 2 RBI4 TB
Victor Mesa Jr. (RF) · 3-4 | 2 R3 H

tough nights

Jorge Mateo (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4