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ATH @ TEX

Tuesday · September 1, 2026·full·gamePk 822854free Saturday

refreshed 594h 29m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Globe Life Field

gametime 8:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

95°F

humidity 39%

wind

8 mph

cross LF to RF

precip

clear

park

TEX

retractable · HP→CF 7°

wind impact on total

neutralnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

opener / bulk pattern

ATH: Brady Basso opens → bulk: Mason Barnett· predicted bulk based on 2/20 prior short outings

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Brady BassoLHP · opener · ATH	Mason BarnettRHP · bulk · ATH	MacKenzie GoreLHP · TEX
xERA 2026	3.62	5.28	3.88
xwOBA 2026	0.295	0.350	0.305
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.046	0.038	0.008
xERA 2025	4.16	3.90	4.33
xwOBA 2025	0.316	0.307	0.322
Outs/TB 25-26	1.78	1.51	1.97
FIP 25-26	3.55	6.22	3.72
kwERA 25-26	4.22	4.53	3.31
K% 25-26	16.8%	19.4%	26.5%
BB% 25-26	7.0%	12.1%	9.1%
IP 25+26 combined	39.7	63.0	309.0
ERA actual 2026	4.50	7.08	4.40
ERA (L4)	5.68	11.30	4.57
WHIP (L4)	1.58	2.23	1.43
K% (L4)	10.3%	14.9%	28.4%
BB% (L4)	3.4%	14.9%	8.4%
IP/gm (L4)	1.58	3.58	5.42
L4 window	08/18→08/28 (4 outs)	07/25→08/17 (4 outs)	07/29→08/26 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	95 (−4)	92 (−5)	99 (+0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.30 (+0.50)	4.83 (+0.04)	3.35 (−0.44)
Arsenal RV/100	0.44	-1.70	0.31

away arsenal · BULK Mason Barnett — ATH

RV/100 -1.70

4-Seam Fastball—-2.00xwOBA 0.387
Slider—+0.70xwOBA 0.315
Sweeper—-3.20xwOBA 0.327
Curveball—-3.70xwOBA 0.340
Changeup—-0.30xwOBA 0.191

home arsenal — TEX

RV/100 0.31

4-Seam Fastball—+0.90xwOBA 0.309
Curveball—-1.10xwOBA 0.318
Changeup—+0.80xwOBA 0.211
Slider—+0.90xwOBA 0.270
Cutter—-1.50xwOBA 0.403
Sinker—+0.10xwOBA 0.357

away · ATH vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.545

Σ match

2.585

Σ FRV

-22.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Henry Bolte	0.303	0.309	+4.3
2	LF	Zack Gelof	0.300	0.283	-2.2
3	RF	Lawrence Butler	0.319	0.309	-10.2
4	C	Jonah Heim	0.296	0.290	-4.8
5	1B	Tommy White	0.298	0.317	-2.6
6	2B	Jeff McNeil	0.307	0.314	-3.0
7	3B	Max Muncy	0.286	0.293	-5.2
8	SS	Alika Williams	0.243	0.254	+0.7
9	CF	Denzel Clarke	0.193	0.214	+0.8

home · TEX vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.775

Σ match

3.015

Σ FRV

+27.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Justin Foscue	0.330	0.350	+2.0
2	SS	Corey Seager	0.349	0.359	+0.7
3	LF	Wyatt Langford	0.317	0.337	+3.2
4	RF	Brandon Nimmo	0.356	0.378	-4.4
5	2B	Ezequiel Duran	0.303	0.338	+12.8
6	1B	Jake Burger	0.311	0.351	+4.7
7	3B	Cody Freeman	0.254	0.288	+0.8
8	CF	Evan Carter	0.279	0.325	+6.6
9	C	Elias Díaz	0.276	0.289	+0.6

defense · ATH catcher (Savant FRV)

Jonah Heim

FRV-4.8
framing-0.6
blocking-2.3
throwing-0.8

defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)

Elias Díaz

FRV+0.6
framing-0.1
blocking-0.1
throwing+0.8

ATH · Mason Barnett

Last outing 2026-08-17 vs KC · 2.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	92
Location+	—	—	92
Pitching+	—	—	85
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	4.83

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-06 → 2026-08-17. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-17; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

TEX · MacKenzie Gore

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs CWS · 3.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	99
Location+	—	—	101
Pitching+	—	—	98
botOvr	—	—	49
SIERA	—	—	3.35

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-10 → 2026-08-26. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

ATH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.37–0.49]

0.102 R/PA · 0.145 R/out · worst: Chris Roycroft (4.88)

TEX · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.36–0.49]

0.100 R/PA · 0.141 R/out · worst: Ben Peoples (4.82)

ATH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Luis Medina	SETUP	SU	3.79	28.3	11.9	1.38	0/9/10	stable
Hogan Harris	SETUP	CL	3.93	28.9	13.9	0.93	13/12/13	stable
Kade Morris	BULK	LR	6.90	13.3	8.0	3.33	0/0/2	insufficient data
José Suarez	OPENER	MR	3.79	22.6	9.6	1.59	1/3/13	stable
Brady Basso	MR	MR	3.33	17.9	3.3	1.22	0/3/0	ramping up
Elvis Alvarado	MR	CL	4.52	29.5	11.5	1.08	5/8/11	stable
Chris Roycroft	MR	MR	7.10	13.8	9.4	1.28	1/0/6	ramping up
Scott Blewett	unknown	MR	2.34	18.9	6.7	—	0/2/0	—

TEX

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jacob Latz	CLOSER	CL	2.43	29.7	8.1	1.28	27/2/26	stable
Jakob Junis	SETUP	SU	3.38	18.3	6.3	1.12	5/17/9	stable
Chase Silseth	SETUP	SU	3.97	26.0	13.7	0.85	0/13/7	stable
Tyler Alexander	OPENER	MR	2.88	20.4	7.1	0.95	4/11/11	stable
Robby Ahlstrom	MR	MR	4.35	21.6	7.2	0.82	0/6/3	stable
Adam Macko	MR	MR	4.35	22.5	9.9	1.04	0/5/2	stable
Ben Peoples	MR	MR	5.82	14.5	9.7	1.06	0/0/1	ramping down
Trevor Williams	unknown	MR	3.25	31.0	8.5	—	0/1/0	—
Jordan Montgomery	unknown	LR	5.16	19.2	3.8	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 ATH · 8 TEX

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

ATH

5 R

11H · 1HR · 7BB · 10K · 25LOB

OBPe 0.435 · SLGe 0.389 · K% 21.7

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 8 ER · 9 K · relief 5.7 IP · 5 arms

TEX

8 R

12H · 0HR · 4BB · 9K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.400 · SLGe 0.515 · K% 22.5

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 10 K · relief 3.7 IP · 5 arms

ATH · standout lines

big nights

Jeff McNeil (1B) · 2-4 | HR, HBP, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Max Muncy (3B) · 0-4 | BB0-for-4

TEX · standout lines

big nights

Corey Seager (SS) · 2-3 | 2 2B, BB, K4 TB
Brandon Nimmo (RF) · 4-5 | 2B, 5 RBI4 H · 5 TB · 5 RBI