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today's slate

ATL @ WSH

Tuesday · September 1, 2026·full·gamePk 822687free Saturday

refreshed 594h 33m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Nationals Park

gametime 6:45 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

93°F

humidity 46%

wind

4 mph

out to RF

precip

overcast

park

WSH

open · HP→CF 30°

wind impact on total

+0.09 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	AJ Smith-ShawverRHP · ATL	Jake IrvinRHP · WSH
xERA 2026	4.94	5.31
xwOBA 2026	0.340	0.351
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.017	-0.014
xERA 2025	6.27	5.59
xwOBA 2025	0.378	0.360
Outs/TB 25-26	2.07	1.64
FIP 25-26	4.00	5.45
kwERA 25-26	4.31	4.30
K% 25-26	20.5%	17.9%
BB% 25-26	11.4%	8.8%
IP 25+26 combined	58.0	261.7
ERA actual 2026	5.93	5.62
ERA (L4)	6.75	6.41
WHIP (L4)	1.71	1.73
K% (L4)	13.6%	21.3%
BB% (L4)	13.6%	13.8%
IP/gm (L4)	4.67	4.92
L4 window	08/19→08/26 (2 st)	08/11→08/27 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	104 (−3)	100 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.23 (−0.36)	4.77 (+0.34)
Arsenal RV/100	1.04	-0.38

away arsenal — ATL

RV/100 1.04

4-Seam Fastball—+1.70xwOBA 0.287
Split-Finger—+0.20xwOBA 0.270

home arsenal — WSH

RV/100 -0.38

4-Seam Fastball—-0.60xwOBA 0.392
Curveball—+2.30xwOBA 0.228
Sinker—-2.10xwOBA 0.480
Cutter—-0.40xwOBA 0.391
Sweeper—-3.40xwOBA 0.344
Changeup—+0.00xwOBA 0.223

away · ATL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.885

Σ match

3.256

Σ FRV

+11.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	C	Drake Baldwin	0.368	0.440	-0.5
2	RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0.361	0.405	-3.5
3	1B	Matt Olson	0.360	0.406	+7.0
4	CF	Michael Harris II	0.343	0.386	+10.1
5	2B	Mauricio Dubón	0.305	0.351	+4.8
6	DH	Ozzie Albies	0.286	0.329	-2.4
7	3B	Austin Riley	0.299	0.341	-1.0
8	LF	Brewer Hicklen	0.354	0.344	-0.6
9	SS	Ha-Seong Kim	0.209	0.254	-3.1

home · WSH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.506

Σ match

2.648

Σ FRV

+2.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	CJ Abrams	0.330	0.307	-11.2
2	RF	Dylan Crews	0.311	0.288	+1.5
3	3B	Brady House	0.337	0.311	-1.9
4	LF	Daylen Lile	0.330	0.280	+2.2
5	DH	Yohandy Morales	—	0.285	—
6	1B	Abimelec Ortiz	0.310	0.309	-0.4
7	C	Harry Ford	0.271	0.281	-0.4
8	2B	Jorbit Vivas	0.300	0.276	+2.2
9	CF	Jacob Young	0.317	0.310	+10.0

defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)

Drake Baldwin

FRV-0.5
framing+2.1
blocking+0.2
throwing-2.8

defense · WSH catcher (Savant FRV)

Harry Ford

FRV-0.4
framing-0.1
blocking+0.7
throwing-1.1

ATL · AJ Smith-Shawver

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs LAD · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 2
Stuff+	—	—	104
Location+	—	—	92
Pitching+	—	—	96
botOvr	—	—	53
SIERA	—	—	5.23

Last 2 starts: 2026-08-19 → 2026-08-26. 0/2 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

WSH · Jake Irvin

Last outing 2026-08-27 vs COL · 4.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	99
Pitching+	—	—	96
botOvr	—	—	53
SIERA	—	—	4.77

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-16 → 2026-08-27. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-27; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

ATL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.35R / inningband [0.28–0.41]

0.081 R/PA · 0.115 R/out · worst: Brent Suter (3.83)

WSH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.31–0.53]

0.100 R/PA · 0.141 R/out · worst: Max Kranick (5.40)

ATL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Raisel Iglesias	CLOSER	CL	3.31	25.1	7.7	1.04	29/0/29	stable
Dylan Lee	SETUP	SU	2.03	31.4	6.4	0.97	0/30/1	stable
Didier Fuentes	SETUP	SU	2.43	31.2	7.7	1.20	3/15/4	ramping down
Dylan Dodd	SETUP	MR	3.24	26.8	7.7	1.18	1/14/4	ramping down
Brent Suter	OPENER	MR	3.64	19.6	6.5	1.54	0/3/13	stable
Victor Mederos	MR	LR	2.96	23.2	8.9	1.87	1/1/4	ramping up
Ray Kerr	unknown	MR	4.88	18.5	3.7	—	0/1/0	—

WSH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Orlando Ribalta	SETUP	SU	4.01	22.9	10.3	0.92	2/12/6	stable
Brad Lord	SETUP	MR	4.24	21.5	9.4	2.15	1/6/4	stable
Clayton Beeter	SETUP	CL	5.04	23.7	15.8	0.96	12/8/11	stable
Tom Cosgrove	SETUP	MR	5.22	18.9	8.1	1.17	1/3/1	ramping up
Will Dion	MR	SU	3.80	28.4	6.8	1.79	0/0/6	ramping down
Max Kranick	MOP_UP	MR	6.14	12.0	12.0	0.67	0/2/0	insufficient data
Erik Tolman	unknown	MR	1.58	34.8	8.7	—	1/1/0	—
Luis Perales	unknown	LR	8.08	23.8	19.0	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 ATL · 9 WSH

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

ATL

5 R

8H · 2HR · 1BB · 10K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.257 · SLGe 0.471 · K% 28.6

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 8 ER · 12 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms

WSH

9 R

12H · 1HR · 7BB · 12K · 22LOB

OBPe 0.442 · SLGe 0.514 · K% 27.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 10 K · relief 5.0 IP · 4 arms

ATL · standout lines

big nights

Michael Harris II (CF) · 1-4 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR
Ozzie Albies (DH) · 1-4 | HR, RBI, RHR
Ha-Seong Kim (SS) · 3-33 H

tough nights

Ronald Acuña Jr. (RF) · 0-4 | 2 K, R0-for-4 · 2 K
Mauricio Dubón (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Austin Riley (3B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

WSH · standout lines

big nights

Yohandy Morales (DH) · 3-5 | HR, 2B, 2 KHR · 3 H · 7 TB

tough nights

Dylan Crews (RF) · 0-4 | BB, 2 K, R0-for-4 · 2 K
Daylen Lile (LF) · 0-3 | 2 BB, 2 K, R0-for-3 · 2 K