Baseball Daily

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today's slate

PHI @ AZ

Monday · August 31, 2026·full·gamePk 825040free Saturday

refreshed 615h 54m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Chase Field

gametime 9:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

86°F

humidity 44%

wind

2 mph

out to LF

precip

mostly clear

park

retractable · HP→CF 23°

wind impact on total

neutralnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Aaron NolaRHP · PHI	Brandon PfaadtRHP · AZ
xERA 2026	4.16	3.75
xwOBA 2026	0.315	0.300
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.038	-0.006
xERA 2025	4.13	5.27
xwOBA 2025	0.315	0.351
Outs/TB 25-26	1.57	1.78
FIP 25-26	4.77	4.16
kwERA 25-26	3.36	3.84
K% 25-26	24.5%	18.2%
BB% 25-26	7.5%	5.3%
IP 25+26 combined	237.3	281.7
ERA actual 2026	5.03	3.51
ERA (L4)	3.00	3.08
WHIP (L4)	1.12	0.80
K% (L4)	29.5%	20.4%
BB% (L4)	7.4%	4.1%
IP/gm (L4)	6.00	6.58
L4 window	08/03→08/25 (4 st)	08/08→08/25 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	101 (−3)	93 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.29 (−0.50)	3.26 (−1.09)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.78	0.77

away arsenal — PHI

RV/100 -0.78

Curveball—+1.20xwOBA 0.230
4-Seam Fastball—-2.40xwOBA 0.401
Sinker—-2.70xwOBA 0.373
Changeup—+0.60xwOBA 0.308
Cutter—-2.70xwOBA 0.345

home arsenal — AZ

RV/100 0.77

4-Seam Fastball—+1.40xwOBA 0.289
Sinker—-0.50xwOBA 0.360
Changeup—-0.40xwOBA 0.341
Curveball—+0.30xwOBA 0.286
Sweeper—+1.30xwOBA 0.200
Cutter—+2.90xwOBA 0.289

away · PHI vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.822

Σ match

2.740

Σ FRV

-13.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Kyle Schwarber	0.366	0.358	-0.8
2	SS	Trea Turner	0.293	0.288	-8.3
3	RF	Bryce Harper	0.392	0.380	-9.5
4	2B	Luis Arraez	0.307	0.286	+9.6
5	1B	Alec Bohm	0.319	0.302	-6.5
6	3B	Bryson Stott	0.327	0.311	+6.0
7	LF	Brandon Marsh	0.310	0.298	-5.1
8	CF	Justin Crawford	0.286	0.267	-0.8
9	C	Garrett Stubbs	0.222	0.251	+1.4

home · AZ vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.948

Σ match

3.066

Σ FRV

+33.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0.329	0.335	+8.8
2	RF	Corbin Carroll	0.348	0.355	+4.6
3	C	Gabriel Moreno	0.368	0.376	+7.6
4	DH	Ketel Marte	0.351	0.378	+3.1
5	LF	Lars Nootbaar	0.345	0.367	+1.2
6	3B	Nolan Arenado	0.287	0.301	+2.5
7	1B	Tim Tawa	0.316	0.326	-1.2
8	2B	Ildemaro Vargas	0.300	0.315	+2.2
9	CF	Ryan Waldschmidt	0.304	0.312	+4.9

defense · PHI catcher (Savant FRV)

Garrett Stubbs

FRV+1.4
framing-0.3
blocking+0.1
throwing+2.1

defense · AZ catcher (Savant FRV)

Gabriel Moreno

FRV+7.6
framing+4.1
blocking+1.3
throwing+2.1

PHI · Aaron Nola

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs SEA · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	101
Location+	—	—	112
Pitching+	—	—	110
botOvr	—	—	56
SIERA	—	—	3.29

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-08 → 2026-08-25. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-25; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

AZ · Brandon Pfaadt

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs CHC · 6.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	93
Location+	—	—	115
Pitching+	—	—	106
botOvr	—	—	61
SIERA	—	—	3.26

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-14 → 2026-08-25. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

PHI · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.37R / inningband [0.31–0.42]

0.086 R/PA · 0.122 R/out · worst: Alex McFarlane (4.10)

AZ · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.31–0.50]

0.094 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Derek Law (5.40)

PHI

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jhoan Duran	CLOSER	CL	1.42	33.8	4.5	0.94	28/0/35	stable
Jonathan Bowlan	SETUP	SU	2.92	31.0	7.0	0.93	2/11/2	stable
Brooks Raley	SETUP	MR	3.34	24.1	8.0	0.89	1/15/5	stable
Orion Kerkering	SETUP	SU	3.57	23.8	11.5	0.94	2/16/5	stable
José Alvarado	SETUP	MR	3.80	26.5	9.7	0.85	1/12/3	stable
Tim Mayza	OPENER	MR	3.21	24.9	6.3	1.15	0/1/9	stable
Chase Shugart	MR	LR	5.12	28.2	9.6	1.13	0/0/10	stable
Alex McFarlane	unknown	MR	2.76	24.3	13.5	—	0/1/0	—

AZ

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Juan Morillo	SETUP	SU	2.42	29.0	8.4	0.92	2/17/9	stable
Brandyn Garcia	SETUP	SU	2.50	30.9	6.6	0.83	4/15/6	stable
Jonathan Loáisiga	SETUP	MR	3.02	18.4	5.2	0.93	1/8/11	stable
Kevin Ginkel	SETUP	MR	3.60	23.9	7.0	0.93	2/11/5	stable
Taylor Clarke	SETUP	MR	3.89	14.9	4.7	1.00	0/13/6	stable
Dennis Santana	SETUP	LR	5.38	20.1	10.5	0.95	2/5/22	stable
Gerardo Carrillo	unknown	MR	3.20	27.4	19.2	—	0/0/0	—
Derek Law	unknown	MR	3.83	14.3	14.3	—	0/0/0	—
Justin Martinez	unknown	MR	4.17	25.0	18.8	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 PHI · 1 AZ

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

PHI

2 R

6H · 1HR · 3BB · 3K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.250 · SLGe 0.303 · K% 8.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 9 K · relief 4.0 IP · 6 arms

AZ

1 R

9H · 0HR · 4BB · 9K · 23LOB

OBPe 0.333 · SLGe 0.286 · K% 23.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 3 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

PHI · standout lines

big nights

Bryson Stott (3B) · 1-4 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Brandon Marsh (LF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

AZ · standout lines

tough nights

Tim Tawa (1B) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K