Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

SF @ ATL

Monday · August 31, 2026·full·gamePk 824911free Saturday

refreshed 619h 31m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Truist Park

gametime 7:15 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

85°F

humidity 57%

wind

2 mph

in from RF

precip

clear

park

ATL

open · HP→CF 63°

wind impact on total

-0.03 R/Gnone in

In wind, but too light to move the total.

opener / bulk pattern

SF: Anthony Molina opens → bulk: no confident pattern

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Anthony MolinaRHP · SF	Bryce ElderRHP · ATL
xERA 2026	5.45	3.99
xwOBA 2026	0.355	0.309
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.104	-0.002
xERA 2025	7.44	4.73
xwOBA 2025	0.405	0.335
Outs/TB 25-26	1.45	1.84
FIP 25-26	6.41	4.50
kwERA 25-26	4.26	3.98
K% 25-26	13.6%	19.4%
BB% 25-26	4.2%	7.5%
IP 25+26 combined	44.0	300.0
ERA actual 2026	2.89	3.95
ERA (L4)	0.00	4.50
WHIP (L4)	0.46	1.21
K% (L4)	7.1%	16.7%
BB% (L4)	7.1%	5.9%
IP/gm (L4)	4.33	6.00
L4 window	08/25→08/25 (1 outs)	08/05→08/25 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	100 (+0)	80 (−5)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.20 (+0.29)	4.82 (+0.49)
Arsenal RV/100	-1.60	0.18

away arsenal · BULK Anthony Molina — SF

RV/100 -1.60

4-Seam Fastball—-1.60xwOBA 0.450

home arsenal — ATL

RV/100 0.18

Sinker—+0.90xwOBA 0.309
Slider—-1.30xwOBA 0.314
4-Seam Fastball—+0.30xwOBA 0.322
Cutter—+0.20xwOBA 0.366
Changeup—+1.10xwOBA 0.212

away · SF vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.636

Σ match

2.674

Σ FRV

-11.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Drew Gilbert	0.332	0.329	+2.7
2	DH	Rafael Devers	0.330	0.328	-4.9
3	1B	Bryce Eldridge	0.354	0.348	+0.3
4	CF	Jonah Cox	0.276	0.285	+0.6
5	RF	Jung Hoo Lee	0.319	0.315	-5.7
6	3B	Osleivis Basabe	0.270	0.264	-3.4
7	C	Andrew Knizner	0.277	0.292	-2.3
8	2B	Nate Furman	0.247	0.286	-0.3
9	SS	Christian Koss	0.231	0.228	+2.0

home · ATL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.883

Σ match

4.243

Σ FRV

+11.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Drake Baldwin	0.370	0.587	-0.5
2	RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0.364	0.450	-3.7
3	1B	Matt Olson	0.362	0.540	+6.8
4	SS	Mauricio Dubón	0.306	0.418	+4.6
5	CF	Michael Harris II	0.342	0.545	+10.1
6	2B	Ozzie Albies	0.286	0.445	-2.4
7	C	Sean Murphy	0.245	0.359	-0.5
8	3B	Austin Riley	0.299	0.452	-1.2
9	LF	Mike Yastrzemski	0.309	0.448	-1.5

defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)

Andrew Knizner

FRV-2.3
framing-1.3
blocking-0.5
throwing-0.5

defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)

Sean Murphy

FRV-0.5
framing-1.1
blocking+0.7
throwing-0.2

SF · Anthony Molina

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs CIN · 4.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 1
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	124
Pitching+	—	—	126
SIERA	—	—	5.20

Last 1 outings: 2026-08-25 → 2026-08-25. 0/1 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-25; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

ATL · Bryce Elder

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs LAD · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	80
Location+	—	—	115
Pitching+	—	—	102
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	4.82

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-10 → 2026-08-25. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SF · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.35–0.62]

0.114 R/PA · 0.161 R/out · worst: Anthony Molina (5.06)

ATL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.35R / inningband [0.23–0.46]

0.082 R/PA · 0.115 R/out · worst: Ray Kerr (5.40)

SF

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Dylan Smith	MR	CL	3.45	29.2	10.8	0.88	3/7/5	stable
Jason Foley	MR	MR	3.50	17.7	8.1	1.00	0/1/0	insufficient data
Anthony Molina	MR	MR	4.47	8.6	5.7	1.67	0/0/2	insufficient data
Reiver Sanmartin	MR	MR	4.92	19.0	6.3	1.67	0/1/1	insufficient data
Carson Seymour	MR	SU	4.96	18.8	10.6	2.17	1/5/0	insufficient data
Ryan Walker	MR	MR	5.50	15.1	11.6	0.98	3/4/10	stable
Braxton Roxby	unknown	LR	1.08	33.3	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Trent Harris	unknown	SU	1.71	31.9	10.6	—	0/3/0	—

ATL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Raisel Iglesias	CLOSER	CL	3.31	25.1	7.7	1.04	29/0/29	stable
Dylan Lee	SETUP	SU	2.02	31.8	6.4	0.97	0/30/1	stable
Didier Fuentes	SETUP	SU	2.43	31.2	7.7	1.20	3/15/4	ramping down
Dylan Dodd	SETUP	MR	3.24	26.8	7.7	1.18	1/14/4	ramping down
Brent Suter	OPENER	MR	3.64	19.6	6.5	1.54	0/3/13	stable
Victor Mederos	MR	LR	2.96	23.2	8.9	1.87	1/1/4	ramping up
Ray Kerr	unknown	MR	5.18	6.2	6.2	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

0 SF · 0 ATL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SF

0 R

0H · 0HR · 0BB · 0K · 0LOB

Their pitching

0.0 IP · 0 ER · 0 K · relief 0.0 IP

ATL

0 R

0H · 0HR · 0BB · 0K · 0LOB

Their pitching

0.0 IP · 0 ER · 0 K · relief 0.0 IP