Baseball Daily

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today's slate

SEA @ BOS

Monday · August 31, 2026·full·gamePk 824719free Saturday

refreshed 619h 29m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Fenway Park

gametime 6:45 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

74°F

humidity 50%

wind

6 mph

in from LF

precip

overcast

park

BOS

open · HP→CF 46°

wind impact on total

-0.10 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.10 R/G vs neutral. _Green Monster blocks LF wind — wind-out games still play big to RF only; foul territory tiny_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	George KirbyRHP · SEA	Payton TolleLHP · BOS
xERA 2026	3.88	2.69
xwOBA 2026	0.305	0.256
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.026	0.027
xERA 2025	3.88	4.67
xwOBA 2025	0.306	0.333
Outs/TB 25-26	1.88	2.11
FIP 25-26	3.50	3.54
kwERA 25-26	3.30	2.97
K% 25-26	23.1%	27.7%
BB% 25-26	5.5%	7.4%
IP 25+26 combined	273.7	141.7
ERA actual 2026	4.02	3.09
ERA (L4)	2.59	3.22
WHIP (L4)	1.23	1.21
K% (L4)	16.0%	37.8%
BB% (L4)	7.0%	6.7%
IP/gm (L4)	6.08	5.58
L4 window	08/02→08/25 (4 st)	08/01→08/25 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	97 (−3)	113 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.46 (+1.49)	4.36 (+0.94)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.14	0.66

away arsenal — SEA

RV/100 -0.14

Sweeper—+0.00xwOBA 0.274
4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.323
Sinker—+0.10xwOBA 0.295
Curveball—-2.20xwOBA 0.323
Changeup—-2.10xwOBA 0.374
Cutter—+2.10xwOBA 0.331
Split-Finger—+0.00xwOBA 0.262

home arsenal — BOS

RV/100 0.66

4-Seam Fastball—+0.60xwOBA 0.255
Sinker—-0.60xwOBA 0.313
Cutter—+1.70xwOBA 0.256
Curveball—+1.30xwOBA 0.143
Changeup—+1.80xwOBA 0.279

away · SEA vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.892

Σ match

2.540

Σ FRV

-25.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Randy Arozarena	0.344	0.299	-7.0
2	DH	Dominic Canzone	0.354	0.324	+0.3
3	CF	Julio Rodríguez	0.341	0.293	-0.6
4	C	Cal Raleigh	0.310	0.268	-1.1
5	1B	Josh Naylor	0.314	0.274	+2.8
6	RF	Taylor Ward	0.338	0.299	-1.5
7	2B	Cole Young	0.315	0.274	-3.3
8	3B	Weston Wilson	0.257	0.232	-8.8
9	SS	J.P. Crawford	0.319	0.278	-6.6

home · BOS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.791

Σ match

2.746

Σ FRV

+17.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Roman Anthony	0.350	0.341	+0.5
2	1B	Mickey Gasper	0.360	0.359	-2.4
3	CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.282	0.269	+14.9
4	RF	Wilyer Abreu	0.353	0.343	+4.4
5	2B	Nick Sogard	0.318	0.318	+2.0
6	3B	Caleb Durbin	0.287	0.276	+4.5
7	LF	Jarren Duran	0.299	0.306	+3.9
8	SS	Trevor Story	0.248	0.248	-2.5
9	C	Connor Wong	0.294	0.286	-8.2

defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)

Cal Raleigh

FRV-1.1
framing-1.9
blocking+3.2
throwing-2.4

defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)

Connor Wong

FRV-8.2
framing-7.1
blocking+0.4
throwing-1.4

SEA · George Kirby

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs PHI · 7.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	97
Location+	—	—	114
Pitching+	—	—	108
botOvr	—	—	54
SIERA	—	—	5.46

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-08 → 2026-08-25. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-25; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

BOS · Payton Tolle

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs MIA · 5.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	113
Location+	—	—	101
Pitching+	—	—	111
botOvr	—	—	61
SIERA	—	—	4.36

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-07 → 2026-08-25. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SEA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.34–0.49]

0.097 R/PA · 0.138 R/out · worst: José A. Ferrer (4.05)

BOS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.36R / inningband [0.30–0.42]

0.084 R/PA · 0.120 R/out · worst: Alec Gamboa (4.13)

SEA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Andrés Muñoz	CLOSER	CL	3.08	37.7	9.8	0.93	24/0/29	stable
Eduard Bazardo	SETUP	MR	4.03	23.6	7.8	0.94	0/25/2	stable
José A. Ferrer	SETUP	SU	4.07	17.7	6.4	0.89	3/13/7	stable
Gabe Speier	SETUP	MR	4.21	20.8	8.4	0.82	1/17/5	stable
Seranthony Domínguez	SETUP	MR	5.13	26.4	13.9	0.89	12/5/18	stable
Cooper Criswell	MR	MR	3.73	19.0	6.6	1.18	1/3/12	stable
Michael Rucker	MR	MR	3.73	26.8	9.2	1.05	0/1/6	stable
Carlos Vargas	unknown	MR	1.13	32.0	4.0	—	0/0/0	—

BOS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Aroldis Chapman	CLOSER	CL	2.47	31.2	10.8	0.96	30/0/27	stable
Garrett Whitlock	SETUP	SU	2.19	29.2	4.1	0.97	2/22/7	stable
Tyron Guerrero	SETUP	MR	2.50	23.4	3.9	1.03	0/18/2	ramping up
Erik Miller	SETUP	SU	2.70	34.2	13.6	0.86	4/12/7	stable
Greg Weissert	SETUP	MR	4.12	24.0	7.4	0.96	1/6/4	stable
Jovani Morán	OPENER	MR	4.52	25.9	11.9	1.53	0/4/6	ramping down
Alec Gamboa	MR	MR	3.12	17.6	7.1	1.60	1/1/5	ramping up

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

8 SEA · 9 BOS

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SEA

8 R

11H · 2HR · 3BB · 11K · 22LOB

OBPe 0.364 · SLGe 0.579 · K% 25.0

Their pitching

9.3 IP · 8 ER · 6 K · relief 4.3 IP · 6 arms

BOS

9 R

12H · 2HR · 5BB · 6K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.386 · SLGe 0.639 · K% 13.6

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 8 ER · 11 K · relief 4.3 IP · 5 arms

SEA · standout lines

big nights

Randy Arozarena (LF) · 4-5 | HR, 2B, 4 RBIHR · 4 H · 8 TB · 4 RBI
Dominic Canzone (DH) · 2-5 | 3B, 2B, K5 TB
Cal Raleigh (C) · 1-5 | HR, K, RBIHR

tough nights

Josh Naylor (1B) · 0-4 | BB, K0-for-4
Cole Young (2B) · 0-4 | HBP, K, 2 R0-for-4

BOS · standout lines

big nights

Roman Anthony (DH) · 2-4 | 3B, 2B, BB5 TB
Mickey Gasper (1B) · 1-4 | HR, BB, KHR
Jarren Duran (LF) · 1-4 | HR, BB, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Wilyer Abreu (RF) · 0-5 | 2 K0-for-5 · 2 K