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today's slate

MIL @ CHC

Monday · August 31, 2026·full·gamePk 824635free Saturday

refreshed 618h 52m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Wrigley Field

gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

81°F

humidity 75%

wind

8 mph

out to CF

precip

clear

park

CHC

open · HP→CF 36°

wind impact on total

+0.29 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.29 R/G vs neutral. _THE wind park — Lake Michigan lake-effect dominates. Wind OUT (south) → HR feast. Wind IN (north off lake) → pitcher's paradise. April/Oct often wind-in cold, June/July often wind-out warm._

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Kyle HarrisonLHP · MIL	Clay HolmesRHP · CHC
xERA 2026	3.24	3.96
xwOBA 2026	0.280	0.308
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.013	-0.057
xERA 2025	4.16	4.33
xwOBA 2025	0.316	0.322
Outs/TB 25-26	2.03	2.48
FIP 25-26	3.39	3.86
kwERA 25-26	2.82	4.29
K% 25-26	28.6%	18.2%
BB% 25-26	7.0%	9.0%
IP 25+26 combined	139.0	241.3
ERA actual 2026	2.79	2.26
ERA (L4)	4.12	1.96
WHIP (L4)	1.32	0.96
K% (L4)	31.7%	11.4%
BB% (L4)	8.5%	8.0%
IP/gm (L4)	4.92	5.75
L4 window	08/05→08/25 (4 st)	08/08→08/25 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	107 (+1)	91 (−9)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.05 (−0.01)	4.06 (+0.01)
Arsenal RV/100	0.88	1.38

away arsenal — MIL

RV/100 0.88

4-Seam Fastball—+0.90xwOBA 0.292
Slurve—+1.90xwOBA 0.222
Changeup—-2.80xwOBA 0.338

home arsenal — CHC

RV/100 1.38

Sinker—+1.70xwOBA 0.369
Sweeper—+1.50xwOBA 0.179
Changeup—+1.40xwOBA 0.230
Cutter—-0.70xwOBA 0.380
Curveball—+1.40xwOBA 0.210

away · MIL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.913

Σ match

2.942

Σ FRV

+2.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Brice Turang	0.338	0.330	+11.9
2	LF	Jackson Chourio	0.342	0.335	+3.9
3	1B	Jake Bauers	0.371	0.368	-8.6
4	C	William Contreras	0.336	0.336	-2.6
5	DH	Christian Yelich	0.316	0.309	+0.0
6	CF	Garrett Mitchell	0.348	0.366	+3.3
7	RF	Sal Frelick	0.283	0.283	-2.2
8	3B	David Hamilton	0.274	0.303	-5.6
9	SS	Cooper Pratt	0.305	0.311	+2.7

home · CHC vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.888

Σ match

2.589

Σ FRV

+49.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0.368	0.314	+24.9
2	RF	Seiya Suzuki	0.336	0.314	+7.3
3	3B	Alex Bregman	0.315	0.281	+5.2
4	LF	Tyrone Taylor	0.314	0.277	+1.2
5	SS	Nico Hoerner	0.324	0.285	+8.3
6	1B	Michael Busch	0.330	0.284	+2.1
7	C	Carson Kelly	0.314	0.287	+0.7
8	DH	Miguel Amaya	0.288	0.270	-1.4
9	2B	Matt Shaw	0.299	0.278	+1.1

defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)

William Contreras

FRV-2.6
framing-4.3
blocking-1.4
throwing+3.1

defense · CHC catcher (Savant FRV)

Carson Kelly

FRV+0.7
framing+1.9
blocking+1.4
throwing-2.6

MIL · Kyle Harrison

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs NYM · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	107
Location+	—	—	110
Pitching+	—	—	114
botOvr	—	—	59
SIERA	—	—	3.05

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-25. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-25; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CHC · Clay Holmes

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs AZ · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	91
Location+	—	—	91
Pitching+	—	—	84
botOvr	—	—	47
SIERA	—	—	4.06

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-14 → 2026-08-25. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)5 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.37–0.46]

0.097 R/PA · 0.137 R/out · worst: Chad Patrick (3.95)

CHC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.36–0.51]

0.102 R/PA · 0.145 R/out · worst: Trent Thornton (4.72)

MIL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Trevor Megill	CLOSER	CL	1.76	28.1	6.9	0.97	25/7/21	stable
Aaron Ashby	SETUP	SU	2.90	31.8	11.3	1.23	2/13/5	stable
Abner Uribe	SETUP	CL	3.08	25.1	9.4	0.99	6/18/13	stable
Grant Anderson	SETUP	MR	4.41	21.8	9.5	1.11	0/5/8	stable
Chad Patrick	SWING	MR	3.90	21.3	9.2	2.46	5/10/5	ramping down
Antonio Senzatela	MR	SU	3.49	20.3	7.9	1.61	3/9/11	ramping down
DL Hall	MR	MR	3.65	28.4	15.9	1.29	0/5/5	stable

CHC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Daniel Palencia	CLOSER	SU	3.85	28.6	8.3	0.88	3/0/12	stable
Jacob Webb	SETUP	CL	3.70	26.0	8.4	0.98	9/8/14	stable
Ryan Zeferjahn	SETUP	MR	4.03	31.5	13.5	1.15	4/12/15	stable
Caleb Thielbar	SETUP	MR	4.83	29.0	8.0	0.85	3/7/6	stable
Ryan Rolison	OPENER	MR	3.87	23.1	11.5	1.12	1/7/13	stable
Trent Thornton	MR	SU	5.11	14.7	9.0	1.11	3/5/9	ramping down
Aaron Civale	SP	MR	4.71	18.3	6.6	4.67	1/0/0	ramping down
Colin Rea	SP	LR	4.88	17.2	8.2	5.03	1/0/1	ramping up

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 MIL · 17 CHC

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIL

3 R

9H · 1HR · 2BB · 11K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.306 · SLGe 0.441 · K% 30.6

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 17 ER · 3 K · relief 4.3 IP · 4 arms

CHC

17 R

20H · 9HR · 7BB · 3K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.538 · SLGe 1.091 · K% 5.8

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 11 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

MIL · standout lines

big nights

Cooper Pratt (SS) · 2-4 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR

tough nights

Brice Turang (2B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Christian Yelich (DH) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Sal Frelick (RF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

CHC · standout lines

big nights

Michael Conforto (LF) · 1-1 | HR, 3 RBI, RHR
Seiya Suzuki (RF) · 3-5 | HR, BB, RBIHR · 3 H
Alex Bregman (3B) · 3-6 | 3 HR, 4 RBI, 3 R3-HR night · 3 H · 12 TB · 4 RBI
Tyrone Taylor (CF) · 4-6 | HR, 3 RBI, 2 RHR · 4 H · 7 TB