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today's slate

SD @ CIN

Monday · August 31, 2026·full·gamePk 824473free Saturday

refreshed 619h 32m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Great American Ball Park

gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

91°F

humidity 40%

wind

5 mph

out to RF

precip

clear

park

CIN

open · HP→CF 24°

wind impact on total

+0.12 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.12 R/G vs neutral. _Great American small dimensions amplify any wind-out signal; SW summer winds out to RF_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Michael KingRHP · SD	Brady SingerRHP · CIN
xERA 2026	4.28	5.10
xwOBA 2026	0.319	0.345
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.026	0.006
xERA 2025	4.24	4.27
xwOBA 2025	0.319	0.320
Outs/TB 25-26	2.27	1.83
FIP 25-26	4.26	4.51
kwERA 25-26	3.81	3.86
K% 25-26	22.3%	20.8%
BB% 25-26	9.1%	7.9%
IP 25+26 combined	229.3	307.0
ERA actual 2026	3.23	4.72
ERA (L4)	2.10	3.68
WHIP (L4)	1.01	1.68
K% (L4)	21.4%	14.0%
BB% (L4)	6.1%	8.4%
IP/gm (L4)	6.42	5.50
L4 window	08/08→08/25 (4 st)	07/29→08/25 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	102 (+7)	95 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.83 (−0.52)	4.76 (+0.34)
Arsenal RV/100	0.58	-0.83

away arsenal — SD

RV/100 0.58

Sinker—-0.10xwOBA 0.389
Changeup—+1.10xwOBA 0.289
Sweeper—+1.30xwOBA 0.259
4-Seam Fastball—-0.30xwOBA 0.339
Slider—+2.10xwOBA 0.260

home arsenal — CIN

RV/100 -0.83

Sinker—-0.20xwOBA 0.360
Slider—-0.30xwOBA 0.314
Sweeper—-1.40xwOBA 0.278
Cutter—-3.90xwOBA 0.450
4-Seam Fastball—-7.10xwOBA 0.474

away · SD vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.895

Σ match

3.206

Σ FRV

+25.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.373	0.402	+5.2
2	2B	Jake Cronenworth	0.278	0.301	-2.8
3	3B	Manny Machado	0.329	0.362	+4.7
4	1B	Ty France	0.331	0.385	+8.1
5	CF	Jackson Merrill	0.333	0.392	+8.5
6	DH	Xander Bogaerts	0.323	0.360	+4.7
7	LF	Dustin Harris	0.336	0.337	+0.4
8	C	Luis Campusano	0.335	0.390	-6.4
9	SS	Sung-Mun Song	0.257	0.276	+2.6

home · CIN vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.833

Σ match

2.916

Σ FRV

-5.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Héctor Rodríguez	0.296	0.307	-0.3
2	DH	Elly De La Cruz	0.360	0.367	+5.0
3	1B	Sal Stewart	0.350	0.363	-2.9
4	LF	JJ Bleday	0.349	0.357	-0.6
5	C	Tyler Stephenson	0.337	0.368	-6.7
6	3B	Eugenio Suárez	0.283	0.277	-5.4
7	SS	Matt McLain	0.310	0.310	+1.5
8	CF	TJ Friedl	0.244	0.249	+2.8
9	2B	Edwin Arroyo	0.304	0.318	+1.7

defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)

Luis Campusano

FRV-6.4
framing-5.7
blocking-0.9
throwing+0.2

defense · CIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Tyler Stephenson

FRV-6.7
framing-9.1
blocking+3.1
throwing-0.7

SD · Michael King

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs PIT · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	102
Location+	—	—	103
Pitching+	—	—	105
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	3.83

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-14 → 2026-08-25. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-25; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CIN · Brady Singer

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs SF · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	95
Location+	—	—	99
Pitching+	—	—	90
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	4.76

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-09 → 2026-08-25. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.34–0.47]

0.095 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Wandy Peralta (4.56)

CIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.40–0.49]

0.105 R/PA · 0.149 R/out · worst: Tony Santillan (4.71)

SD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Mason Miller	CLOSER	CL	1.05	47.5	9.1	1.04	32/0/34	stable
Adrian Morejon	SETUP	SU	2.40	29.9	7.0	1.16	2/22/6	stable
Kyle Hart	SETUP	MR	3.31	22.5	7.9	1.40	0/7/5	stable
Bradgley Rodriguez	OPENER	SU	2.47	25.8	7.1	1.09	2/11/5	stable
Wandy Peralta	OPENER	MR	4.12	15.1	8.1	1.17	0/4/14	stable
David Morgan	MR	MR	4.12	24.3	13.0	1.22	0/1/5	stable
Yuki Matsui	MR	MR	4.22	26.7	14.3	1.35	0/8/5	ramping down
Griffin Canning	SP	LR	4.83	22.4	10.2	4.24	0/1/0	ramping down

CIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Emilio Pagán	CLOSER	CL	4.55	24.6	6.5	0.91	19/0/15	stable
Brock Burke	SETUP	MR	3.95	23.8	13.5	0.95	2/16/10	stable
Pierce Johnson	SETUP	MR	4.50	20.6	9.1	0.88	1/7/8	stable
Tony Santillan	SETUP	SU	7.20	19.2	13.5	0.91	5/11/11	stable
Luis Mey	MR	SU	3.68	31.7	14.4	1.24	0/3/0	ramping down
Tejay Antone	MR	MR	4.22	21.7	6.9	1.00	1/8/6	stable
Julian Garcia	MR	LR	4.92	23.7	9.4	1.62	2/3/2	stable
Sam Moll	MOP_UP	MR	4.20	21.4	11.9	0.88	1/7/5	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 SD · 0 CIN

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SD

5 R

15H · 0HR · 0BB · 10K · 23LOB

OBPe 0.372 · SLGe 0.429 · K% 23.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 11 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

CIN

0 R

5H · 0HR · 4BB · 11K · 20LOB

OBPe 0.297 · SLGe 0.194 · K% 29.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 10 K · relief 4.7 IP · 5 arms

SD · standout lines

big nights

Manny Machado (3B) · 4-5 | 2B, R4 H · 5 TB
Ty France (1B) · 3-5 | RBI, R3 H

tough nights

Jake Cronenworth (2B) · 0-5 | 2 K0-for-5 · 2 K
Sung-Mun Song (SS) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

CIN · standout lines

tough nights

Eugenio Suárez (3B) · 0-3 | HBP, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Edwin Arroyo (2B) · 0-4 | 4 K0-for-4 · 4 K