Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

BAL @ COL

Monday · August 31, 2026·full·gamePk 824314free Saturday

refreshed 618h 52m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Coors Field

gametime 8:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

83°F

humidity 22%

wind

7 mph

in from LF

precip

35%

overcast

park

COL

open · HP→CF 0°

wind impact on total

-0.18 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.18 R/G vs neutral. _Altitude does most of the work; wind secondary but real — calm summer evenings let altitude effect peak_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Cade PovichLHP · BAL	Tanner GordonRHP · COL
xERA 2026	5.00	4.40
xwOBA 2026	0.342	0.323
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.009	0.052
xERA 2025	5.44	5.88
xwOBA 2025	0.356	0.368
Outs/TB 25-26	1.66	1.35
FIP 25-26	4.35	4.85
kwERA 25-26	3.71	3.71
K% 25-26	22.8%	18.7%
BB% 25-26	8.7%	4.6%
IP 25+26 combined	140.7	159.0
ERA actual 2026	4.45	5.38
ERA (L4)	9.00	4.91
WHIP (L4)	2.00	1.45
K% (L4)	13.3%	17.5%
BB% (L4)	13.3%	3.1%
IP/gm (L4)	3.00	5.50
L4 window	08/09→08/09 (1 st)	06/30→08/26 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	100 (−2)	83 (−4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	2.59 (−2.06)	4.24 (+0.20)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.46	-0.99

away arsenal — BAL

RV/100 -0.46

4-Seam Fastball—+1.80xwOBA 0.335
Curveball—+1.00xwOBA 0.248
Slider—-4.80xwOBA 0.446
Changeup—-2.50xwOBA 0.300
Sinker—-6.00xwOBA 0.465

home arsenal — COL

RV/100 -0.99

4-Seam Fastball—-0.70xwOBA 0.337
Slider—-1.60xwOBA 0.313
Changeup—+0.80xwOBA 0.295
Curveball—-5.30xwOBA 0.288

away · BAL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.923

Σ match

2.978

Σ FRV

-16.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Jackson Holliday	0.304	0.305	-3.1
2	1B	Pete Alonso	0.392	0.416	-2.0
3	SS	Gunnar Henderson	0.320	0.304	+0.7
4	DH	Coby Mayo	0.319	0.333	-2.6
5	LF	Dylan Beavers	0.308	0.323	-5.9
6	C	Samuel Basallo	0.320	0.322	-2.4
7	3B	Blaze Alexander	0.358	0.360	-5.5
8	CF	Colton Cowser	0.326	0.333	+6.5
9	RF	Leody Taveras	0.276	0.281	-2.0

home · COL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.732

Σ match

2.929

Σ FRV

-6.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Jake McCarthy	0.319	0.344	-0.7
2	2B	Connor Norby	0.299	0.307	-0.6
3	C	Hunter Goodman	0.329	0.363	-1.9
4	1B	TJ Rumfield	0.326	0.353	+6.6
5	3B	Willi Castro	0.311	0.349	-3.1
6	RF	Mickey Moniak	0.285	0.313	-0.6
7	LF	Jordan Beck	0.253	0.250	-3.0
8	DH	Troy Johnston	0.331	0.358	-2.6
9	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	0.279	0.291	-0.3

defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)

Samuel Basallo

FRV-2.4
framing-4.4
blocking+0.7
throwing+1.8

defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)

Hunter Goodman

FRV-1.9
framing-0.2
blocking-0.5
throwing-1.1

BAL · Cade Povich

Last outing 2026-08-09 vs TEX · 3.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 1
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	102
Pitching+	—	—	100
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	2.59

Last 1 starts: 2026-08-09 → 2026-08-09. 0/1 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

COL · Tanner Gordon

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs WSH · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	83
Location+	—	—	103
Pitching+	—	—	85
botOvr	—	—	50
SIERA	—	—	4.24

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-05 → 2026-08-26. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

BAL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)5 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.36–0.41]

0.091 R/PA · 0.129 R/out · worst: Cam Sanders (3.97)

COL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.43–0.53]

0.113 R/PA · 0.160 R/out · worst: Juan Mejia (4.57)

BAL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yennier Cano	SETUP	SU	2.37	22.2	5.6	0.74	3/12/6	stable
Grant Wolfram	SETUP	MR	3.15	24.7	7.7	0.80	1/12/3	stable
Andrew Kittredge	SETUP	CL	3.74	18.6	5.9	0.87	8/9/11	stable
Rico Garcia	SETUP	CL	4.20	25.8	8.7	0.93	6/16/16	stable
Alex Hoppe	MR	MR	2.75	25.8	8.4	1.14	1/4/13	stable
Josh Walker	MR	MR	3.65	22.2	7.4	1.20	0/3/3	ramping down
Cam Sanders	MR	LR	3.70	27.7	15.8	1.00	3/1/5	stable

COL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jordan Romano	CLOSER	CL	3.24	24.5	12.7	0.79	13/1/13	stable
Jaden Hill	SETUP	MR	3.99	22.2	13.2	0.83	2/12/4	stable
Juan Mejia	SETUP	MR	4.29	19.9	13.0	1.10	4/8/16	stable
Brennan Bernardino	OPENER	SU	3.46	18.0	6.1	0.86	1/11/7	stable
Jimmy Herget	OPENER	SU	5.20	20.0	11.6	0.99	3/9/10	stable
Zach Agnos	SWING	LR	4.46	15.0	7.8	2.28	2/0/10	stable
Mark Manfredi	unknown	MR	1.91	29.6	11.1	—	0/0/0	—
Nick Frasso	unknown	MR	2.30	20.4	6.1	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 BAL · 1 COL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

BAL

2 R

4H · 0HR · 6BB · 5K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.286 · SLGe 0.207 · K% 14.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 8 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

COL

1 R

8H · 0HR · 4BB · 8K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.324 · SLGe 0.303 · K% 21.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 5 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

BAL · standout lines

tough nights

Jackson Holliday (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Colton Cowser (CF) · 0-4 | 2 K, RBI0-for-4 · 2 K