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today's slate

CWS @ HOU

Monday · August 31, 2026·full·gamePk 824149free Saturday

refreshed 619h 32m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Daikin Park

gametime 8:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

83°F

humidity 82%

wind

4 mph

out to RF

precip

overcast

park

HOU

retractable · HP→CF 345°

wind impact on total

+0.01 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Anthony KayLHP · CWS	Peter LambertRHP · HOU
xERA 2026	4.94	3.54
xwOBA 2026	0.340	0.292
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.003	0.000
xERA 2025	—	—
xwOBA 2025	—	—
Outs/TB 25-26	1.86	2.37
FIP 25-26	4.78	3.85
kwERA 25-26	4.16	3.76
K% 25-26	18.4%	23.1%
BB% 25-26	8.0%	9.4%
IP 25+26 combined	132.0	128.0
ERA actual 2026	4.09	3.66
ERA (L4)	3.63	3.37
WHIP (L4)	1.34	1.36
K% (L4)	15.5%	24.2%
BB% (L4)	5.2%	11.0%
IP/gm (L4)	5.58	5.33
L4 window	08/02→08/25 (4 st)	08/02→08/26 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	105 (+1)	93 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.83 (−0.63)	4.55 (+0.34)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.33	0.16

away arsenal — CWS

RV/100 -0.33

Sweeper—-0.80xwOBA 0.321
4-Seam Fastball—+0.00xwOBA 0.352
Sinker—+0.30xwOBA 0.352
Cutter—+0.30xwOBA 0.421
Changeup—-1.10xwOBA 0.266
Slider—-1.50xwOBA 0.291

home arsenal — HOU

RV/100 0.16

4-Seam Fastball—-0.20xwOBA 0.328
Changeup—+0.10xwOBA 0.242
Slider—+0.40xwOBA 0.273
Cutter—+0.50xwOBA 0.338
Sinker—+0.30xwOBA 0.282
Sweeper—-0.10xwOBA 0.282
Slurve—+1.60xwOBA 0.299

away · CWS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.906

Σ match

2.743

Σ FRV

+10.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Sam Antonacci	0.341	0.311	-7.9
2	1B	Munetaka Murakami	0.360	0.342	-1.2
3	3B	Miguel Vargas	0.389	0.368	-4.2
4	DH	Andrew Benintendi	0.314	0.295	-1.6
5	RF	Braden Montgomery	0.321	0.314	+0.6
6	SS	Colson Montgomery	0.300	0.278	+7.6
7	2B	Chase Meidroth	0.292	0.278	+9.4
8	CF	Tristan Peters	0.315	0.299	+10.0
9	C	Jake Rogers	0.274	0.258	-2.2

home · HOU vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.843

Σ match

3.058

Σ FRV

+3.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Jeremy Peña	0.332	0.367	-2.0
2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	0.453	0.477	-2.7
3	3B	Isaac Paredes	0.323	0.363	+0.8
4	1B	Christian Walker	0.304	0.322	+3.4
5	CF	Daulton Varsho	0.288	0.313	+3.3
6	RF	Cam Smith	0.321	0.338	+2.2
7	LF	Nelson Velázquez	0.333	0.347	-3.6
8	2B	Nick Allen	0.252	0.273	-0.6
9	C	Christian Vázquez	0.237	0.258	+3.1

defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)

Jake Rogers

FRV-2.2
framing-1.7
blocking-1.3
throwing+0.8

defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)

Christian Vázquez

FRV+3.1
framing+5.3
blocking-1.2
throwing-1.0

CWS · Anthony Kay

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs TEX · 4.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	105
Location+	—	—	110
Pitching+	—	—	117
botOvr	—	—	57
SIERA	—	—	3.83

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-08 → 2026-08-25. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-25; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

HOU · Peter Lambert

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs NYY · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	93
Location+	—	—	96
Pitching+	—	—	92
botOvr	—	—	49
SIERA	—	—	4.55

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-08 → 2026-08-26. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CWS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.39–0.49]

0.104 R/PA · 0.147 R/out · worst: Tyler Schweitzer (4.82)

HOU · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.36–0.44]

0.094 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Bennett Sousa (4.24)

CWS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Sean Newcomb	SETUP	SU	2.86	22.7	8.6	1.51	4/11/6	ramping up
Grant Taylor	OPENER	CL	2.27	32.6	8.5	1.33	8/10/11	stable
Bryan Hudson	OPENER	CL	3.23	22.2	7.1	0.98	7/8/8	stable
Jordan Hicks	MR	MR	3.64	27.2	14.7	0.91	1/8/6	stable
Tyler Davis	MR	MR	4.10	20.8	14.2	1.10	1/0/6	stable
Trevor Richards	MR	MR	4.28	21.9	7.9	1.46	1/1/16	stable
Tyler Schweitzer	MR	MR	4.32	12.8	8.0	1.86	1/2/6	ramping up
Hagen Smith	unknown	MR	4.08	34.8	21.7	—	0/1/0	—

HOU

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Josh Hader	CLOSER	CL	1.70	35.8	8.2	0.91	21/0/14	stable
Bryan Abreu	CLOSER	SU	4.72	29.3	16.9	0.92	7/12/21	stable
Steven Okert	SETUP	SU	3.27	25.7	5.4	1.01	0/20/1	stable
Enyel De Los Santos	SETUP	MR	3.56	22.4	5.3	1.07	5/9/13	stable
AJ Blubaugh	SETUP	MR	3.86	24.9	9.8	1.68	1/9/6	ramping up
Kai-Wei Teng	SWING	MR	4.67	22.5	9.5	2.76	0/3/1	ramping up
Bennett Sousa	MOP_UP	MR	4.11	22.6	12.9	0.67	0/6/2	stable
Tatsuya Imai	SP	LR	4.48	27.6	14.6	3.86	0/0/0	ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 CWS · 6 HOU

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CWS

3 R

5H · 1HR · 10BB · 11K · 23LOB

OBPe 0.364 · SLGe 0.273 · K% 25.0

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 5 ER · 8 K · relief 3.3 IP · 3 arms

HOU

6 R

8H · 1HR · 3BB · 8K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.306 · SLGe 0.424 · K% 22.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 11 K · relief 4.3 IP · 5 arms

CWS · standout lines

big nights

Colson Montgomery (SS) · 2-3 | HR, 2B, 2 BBHR

tough nights

Andrew Benintendi (DH) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Braden Montgomery (RF) · 0-50-for-5

HOU · standout lines

big nights

Cam Smith (RF) · 2-4 | 3B, 2B, K5 TB
Nelson Velázquez (LF) · 1-3 | HR, 2 K, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Daulton Varsho (CF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K