Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

NYY @ LAA

Monday · August 31, 2026·full·gamePk 823982free Saturday

refreshed 615h 52m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Angel Stadium

gametime 9:38 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

75°F

humidity 61%

wind

7 mph

out to CF

precip

clear

park

LAA

open · HP→CF 58°

wind impact on total

+0.19 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.19 R/G vs neutral. _Marine layer in spring suppresses HR; summer warmth flattens; light wind generally_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Elmer RodríguezRHP · NYY	Walbert UreñaRHP · LAA
xERA 2026	5.45	3.43
xwOBA 2026	0.355	0.288
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.025	-0.005
xERA 2025	—	—
xwOBA 2025	—	—
Outs/TB 25-26	2.23	2.81
FIP 25-26	4.90	3.79
kwERA 25-26	5.06	4.25
K% 25-26	15.2%	22.4%
BB% 25-26	12.4%	12.8%
IP 25+26 combined	23.0	116.3
ERA actual 2026	4.70	2.94
ERA (L4)	5.40	5.29
WHIP (L4)	1.10	1.65
K% (L4)	24.4%	25.0%
BB% (L4)	9.8%	17.1%
IP/gm (L4)	5.00	4.25
L4 window	06/21→08/26 (2 st)	08/02→08/25 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	90 (−1)	102 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.92 (−0.46)	3.53 (−0.98)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.94	0.52

away arsenal — NYY

RV/100 -0.94

Sinker—+0.60xwOBA 0.387
4-Seam Fastball—-2.70xwOBA 0.489
Sweeper—+1.00xwOBA 0.210
Changeup—-7.80xwOBA 0.349

home arsenal — LAA

RV/100 0.52

Changeup—+2.10xwOBA 0.226
Sinker—-0.50xwOBA 0.360
4-Seam Fastball—-0.60xwOBA 0.307
Sweeper—+0.70xwOBA 0.245

away · NYY vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.925

Σ match

2.721

Σ FRV

+2.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Ben Rice	0.375	0.352	-4.1
2	LF	Cody Bellinger	0.345	0.304	+9.1
3	1B	Luis García Jr.	0.355	0.337	+0.8
4	3B	Amed Rosario	0.313	0.273	-7.6
5	CF	Trent Grisham	0.338	0.312	-4.5
6	2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.294	0.292	+5.0
7	RF	Spencer Jones	0.329	0.314	-2.4
8	SS	José Caballero	0.285	0.268	+0.3
9	C	Austin Wells	0.291	0.270	+5.6

home · LAA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.649

Σ match

3.351

Σ FRV

+1.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Zach Neto	0.306	0.417	-2.5
2	CF	Mike Trout	0.379	0.492	-3.0
3	LF	Wade Meckler	0.307	0.361	+2.0
4	1B	Vaughn Grissom	0.309	0.390	-3.4
5	DH	Moisés Ballesteros	0.294	0.354	-1.2
6	2B	Christian Moore	0.258	0.350	-1.7
7	RF	Josh Lowe	0.286	0.341	+4.9
8	3B	Oswald Peraza	0.273	0.345	+0.1
9	C	Tyler Heineman	0.237	0.302	+6.6

defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)

Austin Wells

FRV+5.6
framing+5.4
blocking+1.4
throwing-1.2

defense · LAA catcher (Savant FRV)

Tyler Heineman

FRV+6.6
framing+4.7
blocking-0.3
throwing+2.2

NYY · Elmer Rodríguez

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs HOU · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 2
Stuff+	—	—	90
Location+	—	—	77
Pitching+	—	—	70
botOvr	—	—	41
SIERA	—	—	4.92

Last 2 starts: 2026-06-21 → 2026-08-26. 0/2 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

LAA · Walbert Ureña

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs CLE · 3.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	102
Location+	—	—	96
Pitching+	—	—	99
botOvr	—	—	50
SIERA	—	—	3.53

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-08 → 2026-08-25. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-25; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

NYY · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)5 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.35–0.51]

0.102 R/PA · 0.144 R/out · worst: Tim Hill (4.72)

LAA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.34–0.48]

0.096 R/PA · 0.136 R/out · worst: Luke Murphy (4.38)

NYY

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
David Bednar	CLOSER	CL	2.55	27.8	7.7	1.10	31/0/35	stable
Brent Headrick	SETUP	SU	2.25	30.2	7.4	1.01	0/23/6	stable
Tim Hill	SETUP	MR	5.38	10.8	5.2	0.84	2/10/6	stable
Paul Blackburn	OPENER	SU	3.61	20.7	9.4	1.53	1/9/13	stable
Ryan Yarbrough	MR	LR	3.76	17.3	9.3	1.59	3/1/14	stable
Michael Fulmer	unknown	MR	3.48	23.8	14.3	—	0/2/0	—

LAA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Tayler Saucedo	MR	SU	2.42	30.4	5.4	0.56	0/5/0	stable
José Fermin	MR	MR	4.00	27.1	10.3	1.11	1/7/7	stable
Ryan Watson	MR	SU	4.19	19.6	8.0	1.61	2/4/21	stable
Mitch Farris	MR	LR	4.94	24.3	11.4	2.12	1/1/6	stable
Ben Joyce	unknown	CL	2.36	36.4	15.2	—	3/2/0	—
Blake Weiman	unknown	MR	3.08	18.6	2.3	—	0/2/0	—
Luke Murphy	unknown	MR	3.32	25.5	17.0	—	0/4/0	—
Sammy Peralta	unknown	MR	6.08	26.9	7.7	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 NYY · 10 LAA

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

NYY

1 R

6H · 1HR · 0BB · 10K · 8LOB

OBPe 0.188 · SLGe 0.281 · K% 31.3

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 9 ER · 10 K · relief 4.3 IP · 4 arms

LAA

10 R

12H · 0HR · 4BB · 10K · 21LOB

OBPe 0.432 · SLGe 0.432 · K% 22.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 10 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

NYY · standout lines

big nights

Spencer Jones (RF) · 1-3 | HR, K, RBIHR

tough nights

Ben Rice (DH) · 0-40-for-4
Luis García Jr. (1B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Trent Grisham (CF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

LAA · standout lines

big nights

Vaughn Grissom (1B) · 3-5 | 2 2B, 4 RBI, 2 R3 H · 5 TB · 4 RBI

tough nights

Moisés Ballesteros (DH) · 0-5 | 3 K0-for-5 · 3 K