Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

DET @ MIN

Monday · August 31, 2026·full·gamePk 823663free Saturday

refreshed 619h 31m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Target Field

gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

87°F

humidity 35%

wind

4 mph

out to RF

precip

clear

park

MIN

open · HP→CF 73°

wind impact on total

+0.11 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.11 R/G vs neutral. _Northwest summer winds — typically wind-in from LF, suppresses RH HR_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Jackson JobeRHP · DET	Taj BradleyRHP · MIN
xERA 2026	5.67	3.85
xwOBA 2026	0.361	0.304
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.016	0.001
xERA 2025	4.90	4.10
xwOBA 2025	0.340	0.314
Outs/TB 25-26	1.91	2.02
FIP 25-26	5.03	4.11
kwERA 25-26	4.63	3.68
K% 25-26	18.1%	24.0%
BB% 25-26	11.7%	9.7%
IP 25+26 combined	67.3	290.0
ERA actual 2026	3.93	3.97
ERA (L4)	5.40	4.37
WHIP (L4)	1.80	1.37
K% (L4)	17.2%	27.0%
BB% (L4)	10.9%	10.0%
IP/gm (L4)	4.44	5.67
L4 window	08/14→08/25 (3 st)	08/02→08/25 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	105 (−2)	106 (−3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.04 (−0.34)	5.90 (+2.05)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.63	0.08

away arsenal — DET

RV/100 -0.63

4-Seam Fastball—-2.10xwOBA 0.460
Slider—+0.50xwOBA 0.344
Sinker—+0.90xwOBA 0.229

home arsenal — MIN

RV/100 0.08

4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.378
Cutter—+0.90xwOBA 0.229
Split-Finger—-0.30xwOBA 0.244
Curveball—-2.90xwOBA 0.252

away · DET vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.915

Σ match

2.887

Σ FRV

+9.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Gleyber Torres	0.324	0.311	+2.2
2	DH	Colt Keith	0.337	0.330	-0.9
3	SS	Kevin McGonigle	0.352	0.378	-0.0
4	C	Dillon Dingler	0.348	0.353	+11.6
5	LF	Brett Callahan	0.351	0.328	+0.1
6	RF	Zach McKinstry	0.285	0.264	+8.3
7	1B	Spencer Torkelson	0.308	0.311	-6.8
8	CF	Max Clark	0.308	0.304	+2.8
9	3B	Hao-Yu Lee	0.302	0.308	-7.9

home · MIN vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.862

Σ match

3.396

Σ FRV

-22.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Luke Keaschall	0.313	0.382	-10.8
2	3B	Brooks Lee	0.272	0.346	-2.4
3	2B	Kody Clemens	0.334	0.385	-2.2
4	C	Ryan Jeffers	0.351	0.394	-2.1
5	DH	Josh Bell	0.328	0.414	-0.9
6	LF	Trevor Larnach	0.331	0.412	-1.0
7	1B	Royce Lewis	0.313	0.349	-2.0
8	SS	Kaelen Culpepper	0.326	0.384	-1.5
9	CF	Walker Jenkins	0.294	0.330	+0.3

defense · DET catcher (Savant FRV)

Dillon Dingler

FRV+11.6
framing+7.2
blocking+2.0
throwing+2.4

defense · MIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Ryan Jeffers

FRV-2.1
framing+0.1
blocking+0.4
throwing-2.6

DET · Jackson Jobe

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs TB · 4.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	105
Location+	—	—	108
Pitching+	—	—	114
botOvr	—	—	57
SIERA	—	—	4.04

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-14 → 2026-08-25. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-25; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

MIN · Taj Bradley

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs ATH · 6.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	106
Location+	—	—	87
Pitching+	—	—	92
botOvr	—	—	46
SIERA	—	—	5.90

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-08 → 2026-08-25. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

DET · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.35–0.55]

0.105 R/PA · 0.149 R/out · worst: Kyle Finnegan (4.85)

MIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.33–0.48]

0.096 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Kody Funderburk (4.62)

DET

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kenley Jansen	CLOSER	CL	5.01	27.7	13.5	0.89	17/1/22	stable
Kyle Finnegan	SETUP	SU	5.20	18.1	13.4	1.05	2/14/3	stable
Tyler Kinley	SETUP	MR	5.33	22.6	11.6	0.87	1/11/9	stable
Tyler Holton	OPENER	SU	4.14	18.8	6.0	1.06	2/14/8	stable
Drew Sommers	MR	MR	2.15	38.0	9.9	0.63	0/10/1	stable
Jacob Waguespack	MR	MR	5.02	15.1	8.7	1.30	0/4/4	stable
Andrew Sears	unknown	LR	4.28	14.3	3.6	—	0/0/0	—

MIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yoendrys Gómez	CLOSER	CL	4.59	21.2	12.5	1.12	20/6/26	ramping down
Jeff Hoffman	SETUP	SU	2.60	33.5	9.7	0.94	5/16/16	stable
Taylor Rogers	SETUP	MR	4.07	18.8	10.7	0.82	2/9/10	stable
Kody Funderburk	SETUP	MR	4.12	19.5	13.0	0.94	1/10/1	stable
Andrew Morris	OPENER	MR	3.17	21.5	8.0	1.31	4/20/6	ramping down
Tommy Nance	MR	MR	3.41	25.7	9.2	1.04	0/6/4	stable
A.J. Minter	MR	SU	3.88	21.2	4.4	1.00	0/6/8	stable
Travis Adams	MR	LR	4.23	25.9	10.4	1.46	2/1/6	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 DET · 11 MIN

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

DET

1 R

5H · 1HR · 3BB · 11K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.265 · SLGe 0.267 · K% 32.4

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 10 ER · 5 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

MIN

11 R

9H · 4HR · 7BB · 5K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.415 · SLGe 0.719 · K% 12.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 11 K · relief 2.0 IP · 2 arms

DET · standout lines

big nights

Hao-Yu Lee (2B) · 2-3 | HR, K, RBIHR

tough nights

Colt Keith (3B) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Kevin McGonigle (SS) · 0-40-for-4
Dillon Dingler (C) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

MIN · standout lines

big nights

Kody Clemens (2B) · 1-2 | HR, BB, KHR
Ryan Jeffers (C) · 2-3 | 2 HR, BB, K2-HR night · 8 TB · 4 RBI
Walker Jenkins (CF) · 1-3 | HR, BB, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Josh Bell (DH) · 0-50-for-5