Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

NYM @ TB

Monday · August 31, 2026·full·gamePk 822932free Saturday

refreshed 619h 29m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · George M. Steinbrenner Field

gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

79°F

humidity 88%

wind

7 mph

in from CF

precip

29%

overcast

park

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

-0.28 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.28 R/G vs neutral. _Steinbrenner Field is fully open spring training park — first wind-sensitive home for the Rays since Tropicana_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Robert StockRHP · NYM	Ian SeymourLHP · TB
xERA 2026	4.90	3.59
xwOBA 2026	0.339	0.294
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.044	0.015
xERA 2025	16.44	3.93
xwOBA 2025	0.536	0.308
Outs/TB 25-26	1.54	2.03
FIP 25-26	5.44	3.72
kwERA 25-26	4.86	2.94
K% 25-26	18.6%	27.9%
BB% 25-26	14.1%	7.4%
IP 25+26 combined	23.3	164.0
ERA actual 2026	7.40	4.21
ERA (L4)	9.19	3.86
WHIP (L4)	2.36	1.19
K% (L4)	19.8%	32.6%
BB% (L4)	15.1%	5.6%
IP/gm (L4)	3.92	5.25
L4 window	08/08→08/26 (4 st)	07/18→08/15 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	101 (+9)	97 (−6)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.33 (+0.41)	3.05 (−0.14)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.93	0.29

away arsenal — NYM

RV/100 -0.93

Cutter—-1.50xwOBA 0.500
4-Seam Fastball—+1.50xwOBA 0.188
Sinker—-3.80xwOBA 0.364
Changeup—+0.30xwOBA 0.247

home arsenal — TB

RV/100 0.29

Changeup—+1.10xwOBA 0.240
4-Seam Fastball—-0.10xwOBA 0.307
Sweeper—+0.10xwOBA 0.285
Sinker—-0.10xwOBA 0.397
Slider—-0.40xwOBA 0.301

away · NYM vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.792

Σ match

2.609

Σ FRV

-6.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Francisco Lindor	0.341	0.315	-0.1
2	3B	Bo Bichette	0.323	0.292	-0.5
3	RF	Carson Benge	0.339	0.311	+5.1
4	DH	Mark Vientos	0.310	0.281	-6.4
5	1B	Jared Young	0.311	0.294	-0.8
6	LF	Christopher Morel	0.223	0.207	-2.6
7	2B	Marcus Semien	0.307	0.302	-6.2
8	CF	A.J. Ewing	0.315	0.302	+6.4
9	C	Francisco Alvarez	0.323	0.305	-1.0

home · TB vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.727

Σ match

3.088

Σ FRV

+2.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Yandy Díaz	0.356	0.359	—
2	1B	Jonathan Aranda	0.348	0.397	-1.5
3	3B	Junior Caminero	0.367	0.424	-11.0
4	C	Liam Hicks	0.318	0.379	+0.5
5	LF	Chandler Simpson	0.262	0.285	+2.7
6	CF	Cedric Mullins	0.260	0.286	+9.1
7	RF	Jonny DeLuca	0.268	0.322	+8.5
8	2B	Richie Palacios	0.301	0.346	-4.0
9	SS	Taylor Walls	0.247	0.289	-1.8

defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)

Francisco Alvarez

FRV-1.0
framing+0.7
blocking-1.8
throwing+0.0

defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)

Liam Hicks

FRV+0.5
framing-0.3
blocking-0.5
throwing+0.5

NYM · Robert Stock

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs MIL · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	101
Location+	—	—	90
Pitching+	—	—	89
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	5.33

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-14 → 2026-08-26. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

TB · Ian Seymour

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs DET · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	97
Location+	—	—	105
Pitching+	—	—	99
botOvr	—	—	50
SIERA	—	—	3.05

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-03 → 2026-08-15. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-25; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

NYM · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.28–0.48]

0.089 R/PA · 0.125 R/out · worst: Jefry Yan (4.88)

TB · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.30–0.46]

0.090 R/PA · 0.127 R/out · worst: Manuel Rodríguez (4.60)

NYM

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kodai Senga	BULK	CL	6.00	25.8	14.5	3.39	4/0/1	ramping down
Austin Warren	OPENER	MR	4.13	25.7	11.2	1.35	0/1/9	stable
Daniel Duarte	MR	SU	2.83	28.7	5.7	1.67	2/5/2	insufficient data
Jonathan Pintaro	MR	MR	5.21	25.0	13.5	2.47	0/1/2	ramping up
Chris Devenski	MOP_UP	LR	5.18	20.0	0.0	0.78	0/0/1	insufficient data
Nate Lavender	unknown	SU	1.33	34.3	5.7	—	0/6/0	—
Jefry Yan	unknown	MR	5.18	23.9	19.6	—	0/1/0	—
Dedniel Núñez	unknown	MR	5.33	22.5	0.0	—	0/1/0	—

TB

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Bryan Baker	CLOSER	CL	2.87	28.6	8.1	0.96	39/2/28	stable
Kevin Kelly	SETUP	SU	3.19	21.1	4.6	1.10	4/28/9	stable
Tyler Wells	SETUP	SU	3.50	25.6	6.3	1.26	5/14/13	stable
Garrett Cleavinger	SETUP	MR	3.55	31.0	10.5	0.88	2/23/3	stable
Casey Legumina	OPENER	MR	3.51	18.3	5.6	1.25	0/7/7	stable
Steven Matz	SWING	LR	5.31	17.4	7.3	3.53	1/1/1	ramping down
Cam Booser	MR	MR	3.29	31.4	5.0	1.11	0/9/5	stable
Manuel Rodríguez	unknown	MR	3.74	33.3	26.7	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 NYM · 2 TB

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

NYM

3 R

10H · 1HR · 0BB · 12K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.278 · SLGe 0.417 · K% 33.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 6 K · relief 3.7 IP · 6 arms

TB

2 R

9H · 0HR · 2BB · 6K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.297 · SLGe 0.257 · K% 16.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 12 K · relief 2.7 IP · 4 arms

NYM · standout lines

big nights

Mark Vientos (DH) · 1-4 | HR, K, RBIHR

tough nights

Francisco Lindor (SS) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

TB · standout lines

tough nights

Yandy Díaz (DH) · 0-5 | 3 K0-for-5 · 3 K