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ATH @ TEX

Monday · August 31, 2026·full·gamePk 822855free Saturday

refreshed 619h 31m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Globe Life Field

gametime 8:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

97°F

humidity 28%

wind

8 mph

out to LF

precip

clear

park

TEX

retractable · HP→CF 7°

wind impact on total

+0.01 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Gage JumpLHP · ATH	Jacob deGromRHP · TEX
xERA 2026	4.25	3.67
xwOBA 2026	0.318	0.297
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.012	-0.006
xERA 2025	—	3.36
xwOBA 2025	—	0.286
Outs/TB 25-26	1.93	2.22
FIP 25-26	3.73	3.44
kwERA 25-26	3.69	2.72
K% 25-26	25.2%	28.4%
BB% 25-26	10.9%	6.1%
IP 25+26 combined	88.3	303.0
ERA actual 2026	4.69	4.21
ERA (L4)	5.48	7.94
WHIP (L4)	1.41	2.00
K% (L4)	27.4%	21.4%
BB% (L4)	14.7%	13.1%
IP/gm (L4)	5.33	4.25
L4 window	08/02→08/25 (4 st)	07/26→08/25 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	98 (−8)	108 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.17 (+1.06)	4.25 (+1.05)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.31	0.53

away arsenal — ATH

RV/100 -0.31

4-Seam Fastball—-0.70xwOBA 0.343
Slider—+1.40xwOBA 0.315
Curveball—+0.10xwOBA 0.230
Changeup—-1.90xwOBA 0.281
Sweeper—+0.90xwOBA 0.194
Sinker—-3.70xwOBA 0.496

home arsenal — TEX

RV/100 0.53

4-Seam Fastball—-0.10xwOBA 0.363
Slider—+2.00xwOBA 0.245
Changeup—+0.30xwOBA 0.248
Curveball—-1.40xwOBA 0.234
Sinker—-5.00xwOBA 0.394

away · ATH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.701

Σ match

2.660

Σ FRV

-30.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Henry Bolte	0.304	0.300	+3.8
2	2B	Jeff McNeil	0.308	0.300	-3.0
3	3B	Zack Gelof	0.302	0.272	-1.8
4	RF	Lawrence Butler	0.320	0.320	-10.2
5	1B	Tommy White	0.302	0.320	-3.1
6	DH	Max Muncy	0.289	0.294	-5.2
7	LF	Carlos Cortes	0.308	0.313	-5.6
8	C	Jonah Heim	0.297	0.277	-4.5
9	SS	Darell Hernaiz	0.271	0.264	-1.2

home · TEX vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.712

Σ match

2.729

Σ FRV

+15.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Ezequiel Duran	0.301	0.305	+12.6
2	SS	Corey Seager	0.346	0.332	+0.6
3	LF	Wyatt Langford	0.316	0.319	+3.4
4	RF	Brandon Nimmo	0.355	0.350	-4.3
5	1B	Jake Burger	0.311	0.327	+4.0
6	2B	Justin Foscue	0.324	0.320	+2.0
7	DH	Elias Díaz	0.273	0.261	+0.7
8	3B	Cody Freeman	0.235	0.250	+0.9
9	C	Danny Jansen	0.251	0.264	-4.1

defense · ATH catcher (Savant FRV)

Jonah Heim

FRV-4.5
framing-0.6
blocking-1.9
throwing-0.9

defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)

Danny Jansen

FRV-4.1
framing-5.0
blocking+1.6
throwing-0.7

ATH · Gage Jump

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs MIN · 6.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	98
Location+	—	—	94
Pitching+	—	—	92
botOvr	—	—	49
SIERA	—	—	5.17

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-08 → 2026-08-25. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-25; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

TEX · Jacob deGrom

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs CWS · 3.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	108
Location+	—	—	110
Pitching+	—	—	121
botOvr	—	—	63
SIERA	—	—	4.25

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-25. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

ATH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.37–0.49]

0.101 R/PA · 0.143 R/out · worst: Kade Morris (4.76)

TEX · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.39–0.44]

0.097 R/PA · 0.138 R/out · worst: Jakob Junis (3.95)

ATH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Luis Medina	SETUP	SU	3.79	28.3	11.9	1.38	0/9/10	stable
Hogan Harris	SETUP	CL	3.93	28.9	13.9	0.93	13/12/13	stable
Kade Morris	BULK	LR	6.89	13.3	8.0	3.33	0/0/2	insufficient data
José Suarez	OPENER	MR	3.78	22.7	9.5	1.59	1/3/13	stable
Brady Basso	MR	MR	3.33	17.9	3.3	1.22	0/3/0	ramping up
Elvis Alvarado	MR	CL	4.52	29.5	11.5	1.08	5/8/11	stable
Chris Roycroft	MR	MR	7.40	14.8	9.4	1.28	1/0/6	ramping up
Scott Blewett	unknown	MR	2.34	18.9	6.7	—	0/2/0	—

TEX

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jacob Latz	CLOSER	CL	2.43	29.7	8.1	1.28	27/2/26	stable
Jakob Junis	SETUP	SU	3.38	18.3	6.3	1.12	5/17/9	stable
Chase Silseth	SETUP	SU	3.97	26.0	13.7	0.85	0/13/7	stable
Cole Winn	SETUP	MR	3.99	22.8	7.4	0.93	1/9/5	stable
Peyton Gray	SETUP	MR	4.13	23.8	6.6	1.23	0/8/5	ramping down
Tyler Alexander	OPENER	MR	2.87	20.4	7.1	0.95	4/11/11	stable
Adam Macko	MR	MR	4.35	22.5	9.9	1.04	0/5/2	stable
Jordan Montgomery	unknown	LR	5.16	19.2	3.8	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 ATH · 8 TEX

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

ATH

1 R

3H · 0HR · 0BB · 11K · 4LOB

OBPe 0.103 · SLGe 0.143 · K% 37.9

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 8 ER · 3 K · relief 3.7 IP · 3 arms

TEX

8 R

9H · 1HR · 5BB · 3K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.368 · SLGe 0.438 · K% 7.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 11 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

ATH · standout lines

tough nights

Henry Bolte (CF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Jeff McNeil (2B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Max Muncy (DH) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

TEX · standout lines

big nights

Justin Foscue (2B) · 1-2 | HR, RBI, RHR