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today's slate

MIA @ WSH

Monday · August 31, 2026·full·gamePk 822689free Saturday

refreshed 618h 46m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Nationals Park

gametime 6:45 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

83°F

humidity 69%

wind

2 mph

in from LF

precip

17%

clear

park

WSH

open · HP→CF 30°

wind impact on total

-0.06 R/Gnone in

In wind, but too light to move the total.

opener / bulk pattern

WSH: Will Dion opens → bulk: Matt Waldron· predicted bulk based on 1/14 prior short outings

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Ryan GustoRHP · MIA	Will DionLHP · opener · WSH	Matt WaldronRHP · bulk · WSH
xERA 2026	4.49	3.14	3.67
xwOBA 2026	0.326	0.276	0.297
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.005	0.030	0.091
xERA 2025	4.58	—	11.19
xwOBA 2025	0.330	—	0.472
Outs/TB 25-26	1.68	1.94	1.37
FIP 25-26	4.41	3.83	5.17
kwERA 25-26	3.83	2.64	4.29
K% 25-26	20.5%	29.5%	17.3%
BB% 25-26	7.4%	6.5%	8.1%
IP 25+26 combined	165.0	34.3	43.7
ERA actual 2026	3.98	3.67	7.15
ERA (L4)	4.66	6.35	0.00
WHIP (L4)	1.45	1.24	1.00
K% (L4)	17.0%	17.4%	16.7%
BB% (L4)	6.8%	8.7%	8.3%
IP/gm (L4)	4.83	2.83	1.50
L4 window	07/29→08/26 (4 st)	08/09→08/26 (2 outs)	08/07→08/26 (2 outs)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	97 (+0)	101 (−5)	97 (+3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.18 (−0.03)	9.59 (+6.76)	4.31 (+0.10)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.01	0.21	-1.62

away arsenal — MIA

RV/100 -0.01

4-Seam Fastball—+0.00xwOBA 0.342
Changeup—+1.20xwOBA 0.312
Sweeper—+0.30xwOBA 0.310
Cutter—+2.10xwOBA 0.302
Sinker—-1.80xwOBA 0.349
Slider—-1.00xwOBA 0.321
Curveball—-2.20xwOBA 0.327

home arsenal · BULK Matt Waldron — WSH

RV/100 -1.62

Knuckleball—-2.80xwOBA 0.263
Cutter—+2.10xwOBA 0.174
4-Seam Fastball—-2.90xwOBA 0.347
Sinker—-0.90xwOBA 0.361
Sweeper—-3.70xwOBA 0.377

away · MIA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.673

Σ match

2.641

Σ FRV

+6.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Heriberto Hernández	0.351	0.322	+0.5
2	SS	Otto Lopez	0.325	0.323	+10.2
3	DH	Agustín Ramírez	0.279	0.275	-4.1
4	2B	Javier Sanoja	0.280	0.275	+3.4
5	1B	Kyle Stowers	0.330	0.304	-1.4
6	3B	Leo Jiménez	0.319	0.304	-4.6
7	CF	Jakob Marsee	0.303	0.286	+2.8
8	RF	Esteury Ruiz	0.301	0.295	-2.9
9	C	Brian Navarreto	0.185	0.257	+3.1

home · WSH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.850

Σ match

2.975

Σ FRV

+21.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Daylen Lile	0.324	0.340	+2.4
2	DH	Abimelec Ortiz	0.314	0.337	+0.0
3	1B	Andrés Chaparro	0.369	0.403	-2.0
4	C	Keibert Ruiz	0.283	0.296	+0.0
5	3B	Brady House	0.336	0.343	-1.8
6	2B	Jorbit Vivas	0.300	0.313	+2.9
7	CF	Jacob Young	0.318	0.334	+9.9
8	SS	Nasim Nuñez	0.267	0.282	+8.5
9	RF	Andrew Pinckney	0.339	0.328	+1.4

defense · MIA catcher (Savant FRV)

Brian Navarreto

FRV+3.1
framing+0.5
blocking+0.3
throwing+2.3

defense · WSH catcher (Savant FRV)

Keibert Ruiz

FRV+0.0
framing+1.9
blocking-0.0
throwing-1.9

MIA · Ryan Gusto

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs BOS · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	97
Location+	—	—	113
Pitching+	—	—	107
botOvr	—	—	62
SIERA	—	—	4.18

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-09 → 2026-08-26. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

WSH · Matt Waldron

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs COL · 2.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 2
Stuff+	—	—	97
Location+	—	—	107
Pitching+	—	—	104
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	4.31

Last 2 outings: 2026-08-07 → 2026-08-26. 0/2 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.36–0.53]

0.105 R/PA · 0.149 R/out · worst: Victor Vodnik (4.94)

WSH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.33–0.53]

0.101 R/PA · 0.143 R/out · worst: Luis Perales (5.40)

MIA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Calvin Faucher	SETUP	SU	2.90	25.8	12.9	0.98	2/14/7	stable
Michael Petersen	SETUP	SU	3.43	28.6	11.3	1.06	1/22/4	stable
Dax Fulton	BULK	LR	3.39	21.2	16.7	2.50	0/0/3	ramping down
Josh Ekness	MR	MR	3.83	17.6	10.8	0.89	1/1/2	stable
Victor Vodnik	MR	MR	4.35	16.4	12.6	1.08	4/6/12	stable
Cade Gibson	MR	MR	4.38	18.2	10.8	1.28	0/4/7	stable
Tyler Zuber	MR	SU	4.44	24.8	4.8	0.87	1/8/5	stable
Jack Ralston	unknown	MR	1.69	20.0	0.0	—	0/1/0	—

WSH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Orlando Ribalta	SETUP	SU	4.00	22.9	10.3	0.92	2/12/6	stable
Brad Lord	SETUP	MR	4.24	21.5	9.4	2.15	1/6/4	stable
Clayton Beeter	SETUP	CL	5.04	23.7	15.8	0.96	12/8/11	stable
Tom Cosgrove	SETUP	MR	5.22	18.9	8.1	1.17	1/3/1	ramping up
Will Dion	MR	SU	3.83	29.5	6.5	1.79	0/0/6	ramping down
Max Kranick	MOP_UP	MR	6.14	12.0	12.0	0.67	0/2/0	insufficient data
Erik Tolman	unknown	MR	2.65	22.2	11.1	—	0/1/0	—
Luis Perales	unknown	LR	11.08	23.1	23.1	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 MIA · 6 WSH

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIA

3 R

11H · 0HR · 2BB · 7K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.361 · SLGe 0.353 · K% 19.4

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 6 ER · 9 K · relief 3.7 IP · 5 arms

WSH

6 R

11H · 2HR · 3BB · 9K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.389 · SLGe 0.515 · K% 25.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 7 K · relief 6.0 IP · 4 arms

MIA · standout lines

tough nights

Leo Jiménez (3B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

WSH · standout lines

big nights

Daylen Lile (LF) · 3-3 | 2 HR, BB, 4 RBI2-HR night · 3 H · 9 TB · 4 RBI