Baseball Daily

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today's slate

BAL @ ATH

Sunday · August 30, 2026·full·gamePk 824959free Saturday

refreshed 648h 21m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Sutter Health Park

gametime 4:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

83°F

humidity 36%

wind

3 mph

out to RF

precip

clear

park

ATH

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

+0.10 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Chris BassittRHP · BAL	Jeffrey SpringsLHP · ATH
xERA 2026	4.94	4.94
xwOBA 2026	0.340	0.340
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.015	0.032
xERA 2025	4.16	4.30
xwOBA 2025	0.316	0.321
Outs/TB 25-26	1.81	1.70
FIP 25-26	4.16	5.25
kwERA 25-26	3.83	4.16
K% 25-26	20.3%	18.6%
BB% 25-26	7.3%	8.3%
IP 25+26 combined	244.3	289.3
ERA actual 2026	4.74	6.08
ERA (L4)	3.92	6.89
WHIP (L4)	1.50	1.98
K% (L4)	16.7%	7.8%
BB% (L4)	6.7%	14.3%
IP/gm (L4)	5.17	3.92
L4 window	06/03→08/25 (4 st)	07/26→08/24 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	92 (−4)	92 (−5)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.11 (+0.38)	8.09 (+3.12)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.85	-1.51

away arsenal — BAL

RV/100 -0.85

Sinker—-0.20xwOBA 0.341
Curveball—-0.20xwOBA 0.309
Cutter—-1.50xwOBA 0.372
4-Seam Fastball—-6.50xwOBA 0.495
Sweeper—+1.70xwOBA 0.251
Changeup—-1.10xwOBA 0.392

home arsenal — ATH

RV/100 -1.51

4-Seam Fastball—-1.90xwOBA 0.372
Changeup—-1.30xwOBA 0.264
Slider—-0.80xwOBA 0.369
Sweeper—-2.40xwOBA 0.409

away · BAL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.939

Σ match

3.244

Σ FRV

+0.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Blaze Alexander	0.361	0.393	-5.5
2	DH	Pete Alonso	0.390	0.450	-1.3
3	SS	Gunnar Henderson	0.316	0.323	+0.2
4	1B	Coby Mayo	0.318	0.360	-2.5
5	3B	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0.357	0.406	+2.0
6	RF	Leody Taveras	0.278	0.311	-1.8
7	LF	Christian Franklin	0.323	0.370	-0.2
8	C	Carlos Narváez	0.267	0.265	+3.6
9	CF	Colton Cowser	0.329	0.367	+6.2

home · ATH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.709

Σ match

3.050

Σ FRV

-23.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Henry Bolte	0.304	0.345	+3.6
2	DH	Jeff McNeil	0.309	0.350	-3.3
3	3B	Zack Gelof	0.300	0.353	-1.2
4	RF	Lawrence Butler	0.317	0.340	-10.3
5	2B	Donovan Walton	0.327	0.385	-5.2
6	1B	Tommy White	0.308	0.332	-2.7
7	LF	Carlos Cortes	0.310	0.334	-5.6
8	C	Brian Serven	0.292	0.321	+0.2
9	SS	Alika Williams	0.242	0.290	+0.6

defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)

Carlos Narváez

FRV+3.6
framing+1.8
blocking+2.2
throwing-0.4

defense · ATH catcher (Savant FRV)

Brian Serven

FRV+0.2
framing-0.5
blocking+0.9
throwing-0.1

BAL · Chris Bassitt

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs STL · 6.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	92
Location+	—	—	98
Pitching+	—	—	90
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	5.11

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-14 → 2026-08-25. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-25; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

ATH · Jeffrey Springs

Last outing 2026-08-24 vs MIN · 4.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	92
Location+	—	—	86
Pitching+	—	—	81
botOvr	—	—	45
SIERA	—	—	8.09

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-31 → 2026-08-24. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-24; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

BAL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.37–0.42]

0.093 R/PA · 0.132 R/out · worst: Cam Sanders (3.97)

ATH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.37–0.50]

0.103 R/PA · 0.146 R/out · worst: Kade Morris (5.04)

BAL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yennier Cano	SETUP	SU	2.35	22.6	5.6	0.74	2/12/6	stable
Grant Wolfram	SETUP	MR	3.15	24.7	7.7	0.80	1/12/3	stable
Andrew Kittredge	SETUP	CL	3.74	18.6	5.9	0.87	8/9/11	stable
Anthony Nunez	SETUP	MR	3.89	24.8	11.7	1.12	3/6/7	stable
Rico Garcia	SETUP	CL	4.20	25.8	8.7	0.93	6/16/16	stable
Alex Hoppe	MR	MR	2.75	25.8	8.4	1.14	1/4/13	stable
Cam Sanders	MR	LR	3.70	27.7	15.8	1.00	3/1/5	stable
Josh Walker	MR	MR	3.78	22.1	7.8	1.20	0/2/3	ramping down

ATH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Luis Medina	SETUP	SU	3.79	28.3	11.9	1.38	0/9/10	stable
Hogan Harris	SETUP	CL	3.93	28.9	13.9	0.93	13/12/13	stable
Kade Morris	BULK	LR	7.58	11.9	9.0	3.33	0/0/2	insufficient data
José Suarez	OPENER	MR	3.78	22.7	9.5	1.59	1/3/13	stable
Brady Basso	MR	MR	3.41	17.5	3.3	1.22	0/3/0	ramping up
Elvis Alvarado	MR	CL	4.52	29.5	11.5	1.08	5/8/11	stable
Chris Roycroft	MR	MR	7.40	14.8	9.4	1.28	1/0/6	ramping up
Scott Blewett	unknown	MR	2.68	15.1	7.0	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

8 BAL · 5 ATH

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

BAL

8 R

7H · 3HR · 1BB · 13K · 3LOB

OBPe 0.250 · SLGe 0.529 · K% 36.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 7 K · relief 3.3 IP · 4 arms

ATH

5 R

9H · 1HR · 3BB · 7K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.316 · SLGe 0.429 · K% 18.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 8 ER · 13 K · relief 4.3 IP · 4 arms

BAL · standout lines

big nights

Gunnar Henderson (SS) · 4-4 | 2 HR, 3B, 5 RBI2-HR night · 4 H · 12 TB · 5 RBI
Coby Mayo (1B) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, 3 RBIHR

tough nights

Christian Encarnacion-Strand (3B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Leody Taveras (RF) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Carlos Narváez (C) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

ATH · standout lines

big nights

Brian Serven (C) · 2-4 | HR, 2 RBI, 2 RHR