Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

COL @ ATL

Sunday · August 30, 2026·full·gamePk 824876free Saturday

refreshed 649h 57m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Truist Park

gametime 1:35 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

87°F

humidity 56%

wind

6 mph

in from CF

precip

mostly clear

park

ATL

open · HP→CF 63°

wind impact on total

-0.19 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.19 R/G vs neutral. _Truist's open bowl + foul-territory small footprint — wind out to LF plays significantly_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Mason AdamsRHP · COL	Tyler MahleRHP · ATL
xERA 2026	4.13	4.28
xwOBA 2026	0.314	0.319
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.036	0.004
xERA 2025	—	4.24
xwOBA 2025	—	0.319
Outs/TB 25-26	1.71	2.24
FIP 25-26	6.08	3.78
kwERA 25-26	4.07	3.88
K% 25-26	27.8%	21.1%
BB% 25-26	16.7%	8.4%
IP 25+26 combined	4.0	205.0
ERA actual 2026	2.25	4.41
ERA (L4)	—	1.52
WHIP (L4)	—	1.01
K% (L4)	—	24.7%
BB% (L4)	—	5.4%
IP/gm (L4)	—	5.92
L4 window	—	08/07→08/23 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	85 (−3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	3.47 (−0.62)
Arsenal RV/100	—	-0.03

away arsenal — COL

RV/100 —

No Savant arsenal data.

home arsenal — ATL

RV/100 -0.03

4-Seam Fastball—+0.70xwOBA 0.306
Split-Finger—-0.30xwOBA 0.314
Cutter—+0.20xwOBA 0.321
Slider—-4.80xwOBA 0.411

away · COL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.712

Σ match

2.819

Σ FRV

-6.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Jake McCarthy	0.318	0.345	-0.4
2	2B	Connor Norby	0.299	0.300	-0.7
3	DH	Hunter Goodman	0.331	0.337	-2.0
4	1B	TJ Rumfield	0.328	0.339	+6.3
5	3B	Willi Castro	0.312	0.330	-3.2
6	LF	Mickey Moniak	0.283	0.292	-0.1
7	RF	Troy Johnston	0.331	0.340	-2.7
8	C	Brett Sullivan	0.278	0.292	-4.9
9	SS	Ryan Ritter	0.232	0.245	+1.2

home · ATL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.763

Σ match

—

Σ FRV

+8.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Drake Baldwin	0.371	—	-0.8
2	RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0.363	—	-4.7
3	1B	Matt Olson	0.362	—	+6.5
4	CF	Michael Harris II	0.343	—	+10.2
5	LF	Mauricio Dubón	0.304	—	+4.4
6	2B	Ozzie Albies	0.287	—	-2.4
7	C	Sean Murphy	0.221	—	-0.6
8	3B	Austin Riley	0.298	—	-1.3
9	SS	Ha-Seong Kim	0.214	—	-3.2

defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)

Brett Sullivan

FRV-4.9
framing-3.1
blocking-0.1
throwing-1.6

defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)

Sean Murphy

FRV-0.6
framing-1.1
blocking+0.7
throwing-0.2

COL · Mason Adams: no recent outing on file.

ATL · Tyler Mahle

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs MIL · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	85
Location+	—	—	112
Pitching+	—	—	101
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	3.47

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

COL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.43–0.53]

0.113 R/PA · 0.160 R/out · worst: Juan Mejia (4.57)

ATL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.35R / inningband [0.24–0.46]

0.082 R/PA · 0.116 R/out · worst: Ray Kerr (5.40)

COL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jordan Romano	CLOSER	CL	3.24	24.5	12.7	0.79	13/1/13	stable
Jaden Hill	SETUP	MR	3.99	22.2	13.2	0.83	2/12/4	stable
Juan Mejia	SETUP	MR	4.29	19.9	13.0	1.10	4/8/16	stable
Brennan Bernardino	OPENER	SU	3.46	18.0	6.1	0.86	1/11/7	stable
Jimmy Herget	OPENER	SU	5.20	20.0	11.6	0.99	3/9/10	stable
Zach Agnos	SWING	LR	4.46	15.0	7.8	2.28	2/0/10	stable
Mark Manfredi	unknown	MR	1.91	29.6	11.1	—	0/0/0	—
Nick Frasso	unknown	MR	2.30	20.4	6.1	—	0/0/0	—

ATL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Raisel Iglesias	CLOSER	CL	3.32	25.5	7.8	1.04	29/0/29	stable
Dylan Lee	SETUP	SU	2.04	32.0	6.6	0.97	0/30/1	stable
Didier Fuentes	SETUP	SU	2.43	31.2	7.7	1.20	3/15/4	ramping down
Dylan Dodd	SETUP	MR	3.28	26.3	7.8	1.18	1/13/4	ramping down
Brent Suter	OPENER	MR	3.64	19.6	6.5	1.54	0/3/13	stable
Victor Mederos	MR	LR	3.04	22.9	9.2	1.87	1/1/4	ramping up
Ray Kerr	unknown	MR	5.18	6.2	6.2	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 COL · 3 ATL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

COL

2 R

7H · 1HR · 0BB · 12K · 9LOB

OBPe 0.194 · SLGe 0.286 · K% 33.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 11 K · relief 4.0 IP · 2 arms

ATL

3 R

10H · 1HR · 4BB · 11K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.359 · SLGe 0.400 · K% 28.2

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 2 ER · 12 K · relief 3.3 IP · 5 arms

COL · standout lines

big nights

Jake McCarthy (CF) · 1-4 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Willi Castro (3B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

ATL · standout lines

big nights

Sean Murphy (C) · 1-3 | HR, BB, KHR