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today's slate

CIN @ CHC

Sunday · August 30, 2026·full·gamePk 824636free Saturday

refreshed 644h 34m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Wrigley Field

gametime 7:20 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

75°F

humidity 79%

wind

7 mph

out to CF

precip

15%

heavy drizzle

park

CHC

open · HP→CF 36°

wind impact on total

+0.26 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.26 R/G vs neutral. _THE wind park — Lake Michigan lake-effect dominates. Wind OUT (south) → HR feast. Wind IN (north off lake) → pitcher's paradise. April/Oct often wind-in cold, June/July often wind-out warm._

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Chase BurnsRHP · CIN	Shota ImanagaLHP · CHC
xERA 2026	3.17	3.83
xwOBA 2026	0.277	0.303
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.009	0.010
xERA 2025	3.48	4.07
xwOBA 2025	0.291	0.313
Outs/TB 25-26	2.18	1.85
FIP 25-26	3.00	4.73
kwERA 25-26	2.77	3.32
K% 25-26	30.5%	22.5%
BB% 25-26	8.6%	5.2%
IP 25+26 combined	183.0	290.0
ERA actual 2026	2.77	3.78
ERA (L4)	5.14	4.58
WHIP (L4)	1.48	1.47
K% (L4)	30.0%	30.5%
BB% (L4)	6.7%	6.1%
IP/gm (L4)	5.25	4.42
L4 window	08/08→08/24 (4 st)	08/05→08/23 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	111 (−1)	85 (−8)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.10 (−0.35)	2.97 (−0.72)
Arsenal RV/100	0.57	0.08

away arsenal — CIN

RV/100 0.57

4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.328
Slider—+1.60xwOBA 0.199
Changeup—-5.10xwOBA 0.407

home arsenal — CHC

RV/100 0.08

4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.319
Split-Finger—+0.50xwOBA 0.243
Sweeper—-1.30xwOBA 0.357
Sinker—-0.90xwOBA 0.373

away · CIN vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.917

Σ match

2.832

Σ FRV

-8.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Dane Myers	0.314	0.291	-1.0
2	SS	Elly De La Cruz	0.361	0.349	+4.7
3	1B	Sal Stewart	0.350	0.346	-2.7
4	C	Tyler Stephenson	0.337	0.320	-7.0
5	DH	Eugenio Suárez	0.282	0.282	-5.4
6	LF	JJ Bleday	0.350	0.336	-0.6
7	2B	Matt McLain	0.311	0.302	+2.0
8	RF	Héctor Rodríguez	0.301	0.292	-0.5
9	3B	Edwin Arroyo	0.311	0.314	+1.7

home · CHC vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.904

Σ match

2.606

Σ FRV

+47.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0.364	0.321	+24.5
2	RF	Seiya Suzuki	0.338	0.320	+7.0
3	1B	Michael Busch	0.332	0.283	+1.8
4	3B	Alex Bregman	0.315	0.282	+4.9
5	LF	Ian Happ	0.311	0.264	+4.6
6	SS	Nico Hoerner	0.324	0.281	+8.2
7	2B	Pedro Ramírez	0.311	0.292	-0.4
8	DH	Michael Conforto	0.322	0.291	-1.8
9	C	Miguel Amaya	0.287	0.272	-1.4

defense · CIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Tyler Stephenson

FRV-7.0
framing-9.1
blocking+2.9
throwing-0.7

defense · CHC catcher (Savant FRV)

Miguel Amaya

FRV-1.4
framing-0.4
blocking-0.6
throwing+0.1

CIN · Chase Burns

Last outing 2026-08-24 vs SF · 3.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	111
Location+	—	—	108
Pitching+	—	—	118
botOvr	—	—	62
SIERA	—	—	3.10

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-14 → 2026-08-24. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-24; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CHC · Shota Imanaga

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs SEA · 2.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	85
Location+	—	—	101
Pitching+	—	—	92
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	2.97

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.40–0.50]

0.105 R/PA · 0.149 R/out · worst: Tony Santillan (4.71)

CHC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.37–0.51]

0.103 R/PA · 0.146 R/out · worst: Trent Thornton (4.77)

CIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Emilio Pagán	CLOSER	CL	4.19	25.4	6.7	0.91	18/0/15	stable
Brock Burke	SETUP	MR	4.03	23.6	13.8	0.95	2/15/10	stable
Pierce Johnson	SETUP	MR	4.50	20.6	9.1	0.88	1/7/8	stable
Tony Santillan	SETUP	SU	7.21	19.2	13.5	0.91	5/11/11	stable
Luis Mey	MR	SU	3.71	33.0	15.0	1.24	0/3/0	ramping down
Tejay Antone	MR	MR	4.22	21.7	6.9	1.00	1/8/6	stable
Julian Garcia	MR	LR	4.92	23.7	9.4	1.62	2/3/2	stable
Sam Moll	MOP_UP	MR	4.20	21.4	11.9	0.88	1/7/5	stable

CHC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Daniel Palencia	CLOSER	SU	3.85	28.6	8.3	0.88	3/0/12	stable
Jacob Webb	SETUP	CL	3.74	26.0	8.5	0.98	9/8/14	stable
Ryan Zeferjahn	SETUP	MR	4.03	31.5	13.5	1.15	4/12/15	stable
Caleb Thielbar	SETUP	MR	5.02	27.7	8.1	0.85	3/7/6	stable
Ryan Rolison	OPENER	MR	3.87	23.1	11.5	1.12	1/7/13	stable
Trent Thornton	MR	SU	4.90	14.5	9.3	1.11	3/5/9	ramping down
Aaron Civale	SP	MR	4.74	18.0	6.5	4.67	1/0/0	ramping down
Colin Rea	SP	LR	4.88	17.2	8.2	5.03	1/0/1	ramping up

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

7 CIN · 5 CHC

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CIN

7 R

11H · 4HR · 2BB · 11K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.325 · SLGe 0.658 · K% 27.5

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 9 K · relief 3.3 IP · 4 arms

CHC

5 R

9H · 2HR · 1BB · 9K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.263 · SLGe 0.444 · K% 23.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 7 ER · 11 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

CIN · standout lines

big nights

Dane Myers (CF) · 1-5 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR
Sal Stewart (1B) · 2-5 | HR, K, RBIHR
Tyler Stephenson (C) · 2-5 | HR, 2B, 2 RBIHR
Héctor Rodríguez (RF) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, 3 RBIHR

tough nights

Edwin Arroyo (3B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

CHC · standout lines

big nights

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF) · 2-5 | 2 HR, K, 2 RBI2-HR night · 8 TB

tough nights

Seiya Suzuki (RF) · 0-5 | K0-for-5
Michael Busch (1B) · 0-4 | 4 K0-for-4 · 4 K
Pedro Ramírez (2B) · 0-40-for-4