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today's slate

KC @ CLE

Sunday · August 30, 2026·full·gamePk 824393free Saturday

refreshed 650h 54m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Progressive Field

gametime 1:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

81°F

humidity 41%

wind

6 mph

out to RF

precip

11%

overcast

park

CLE

open · HP→CF 25°

wind impact on total

+0.16 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.16 R/G vs neutral. _Lake Erie wind in from LF in spring/fall — kills LH HR; summer flattens_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Seth LugoRHP · KC	Parker MessickLHP · CLE
xERA 2026	5.07	2.91
xwOBA 2026	0.344	0.266
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.003	-0.003
xERA 2025	5.16	3.07
xwOBA 2025	0.348	0.274
Outs/TB 25-26	1.79	2.32
FIP 25-26	4.53	3.05
kwERA 25-26	4.07	3.13
K% 25-26	19.3%	25.0%
BB% 25-26	8.2%	6.1%
IP 25+26 combined	295.7	194.7
ERA actual 2026	4.61	2.50
ERA (L4)	5.82	1.88
WHIP (L4)	1.34	0.92
K% (L4)	18.5%	30.1%
BB% (L4)	2.2%	3.2%
IP/gm (L4)	5.42	6.00
L4 window	08/08→08/25 (4 st)	08/01→08/24 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	94 (+4)	102 (+5)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.86 (−0.65)	2.66 (−0.87)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.60	1.22

away arsenal — KC

RV/100 -0.60

Sinker—+1.00xwOBA 0.396
Curveball—-0.90xwOBA 0.254
Cutter—-0.10xwOBA 0.340
4-Seam Fastball—-2.00xwOBA 0.389
Sweeper—-2.40xwOBA 0.377
Slider—-0.80xwOBA 0.337
Changeup—+1.10xwOBA 0.317
Slurve—-4.20xwOBA 0.336

home arsenal — CLE

RV/100 1.22

4-Seam Fastball—+2.70xwOBA 0.227
Changeup—+0.30xwOBA 0.219
Sinker—+2.90xwOBA 0.363
Curveball—-2.40xwOBA 0.322
Cutter—-1.90xwOBA 0.340
Slider—-0.90xwOBA 0.372

away · KC vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.861

Σ match

2.523

Σ FRV

+9.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	C	Carter Jensen	0.292	0.260	+2.1
2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0.383	0.340	+18.5
3	RF	Jac Caglianone	0.362	0.313	-6.2
4	DH	Salvador Perez	0.303	0.280	-9.3
5	1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	0.331	0.291	+3.2
6	3B	Nick Loftin	0.297	0.255	-1.7
7	LF	John Rave	0.325	0.277	+0.7
8	2B	Tyler Tolbert	0.301	0.269	-1.2
9	CF	Kyle Isbel	0.267	0.238	+3.3

home · CLE vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.831

Σ match

3.130

Σ FRV

+11.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Steven Kwan	0.322	0.357	+8.2
2	RF	Chase DeLauter	0.340	0.374	+0.7
3	DH	José Ramírez	0.342	0.371	+2.0
4	LF	Jo Adell	0.329	0.363	-7.3
5	1B	Nathaniel Lowe	0.335	0.375	-2.4
6	2B	Travis Bazzana	0.300	0.336	-1.0
7	3B	Angel Genao	0.292	0.322	+0.9
8	C	Austin Hedges	0.280	0.308	-1.3
9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	0.291	0.322	+11.6

defense · KC catcher (Savant FRV)

Carter Jensen

FRV+2.1
framing+2.8
blocking-2.8
throwing+2.2

defense · CLE catcher (Savant FRV)

Austin Hedges

FRV-1.3
framing+2.1
blocking-1.2
throwing-2.2

KC · Seth Lugo

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs TOR · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	94
Location+	—	—	112
Pitching+	—	—	106
botOvr	—	—	57
SIERA	—	—	3.86

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-14 → 2026-08-25. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-25; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CLE · Parker Messick

Last outing 2026-08-24 vs LAA · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	102
Location+	—	—	109
Pitching+	—	—	106
botOvr	—	—	57
SIERA	—	—	2.66

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-07 → 2026-08-24. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-24; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

KC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.43–0.54]

0.114 R/PA · 0.161 R/out · worst: Anthony Gose (5.40)

CLE · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.34–0.45]

0.093 R/PA · 0.132 R/out · worst: Tim Herrin (4.25)

KC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Alex Lange	CLOSER	MR	4.33	23.1	11.5	1.03	10/3/20	stable
John Schreiber	SETUP	SU	4.86	17.7	10.8	0.91	1/14/5	stable
Connor Thomas	BULK	MR	9.08	12.7	10.9	3.67	0/2/0	insufficient data
Steven Cruz	OPENER	CL	5.20	25.8	8.8	1.06	6/5/7	stable
Jose Cuas	MR	LR	2.79	22.6	12.9	1.27	0/3/4	ramping down
Craig Kimbrel	MR	MR	4.13	21.5	11.0	1.03	1/1/15	stable
Anthony Gose	unknown	MR	3.08	0.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Nate Pearson	unknown	MR	3.68	20.3	12.6	—	3/4/0	—

CLE

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Cade Smith	CLOSER	CL	2.51	34.0	8.1	1.05	35/0/37	stable
Erik Sabrowski	SETUP	SU	2.82	38.5	15.4	0.78	1/23/2	stable
Colin Holderman	SETUP	MR	3.08	22.9	8.7	0.99	1/11/8	ramping down
Matt Festa	SETUP	MR	3.42	25.0	6.5	0.97	1/7/13	stable
Hunter Gaddis	SETUP	SU	3.96	22.1	9.5	0.86	1/27/2	stable
Tim Herrin	SETUP	MR	4.46	21.7	12.1	0.79	0/15/5	stable
Logan Allen	BULK	LR	4.96	22.4	6.0	3.67	0/0/1	insufficient data
Craig Yoho	MR	MR	5.15	24.2	10.6	1.33	0/1/5	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 KC · 11 CLE

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

KC

1 R

7H · 0HR · 3BB · 9K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.270 · SLGe 0.265 · K% 24.3

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 11 ER · 5 K · relief 4.3 IP · 4 arms

CLE

11 R

13H · 2HR · 4BB · 5K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.415 · SLGe 0.657 · K% 12.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 9 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

KC · standout lines

tough nights

Bobby Witt Jr. (SS) · 0-40-for-4
John Rave (RF) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

CLE · standout lines

big nights

Chase DeLauter (RF) · 4-4 | 2 2B, RBI, 3 R4 H · 6 TB
José Ramírez (DH) · 2-3 | HR, BB, 4 RBIHR · 4 RBI
Jo Adell (RF) · 3-4 | 2B, BB, 3 RBI3 H · 4 TB
Nathaniel Lowe (1B) · 1-4 | HR, 3 RBI, RHR

tough nights

Travis Bazzana (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Austin Hedges (C) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K