Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

PHI @ LAA

Sunday · August 30, 2026·full·gamePk 823987free Saturday

refreshed 647h 28m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Angel Stadium

gametime 4:07 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

89°F

humidity 53%

wind

9 mph

out to CF

precip

clear

park

LAA

open · HP→CF 58°

wind impact on total

+0.26 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.26 R/G vs neutral. _Marine layer in spring suppresses HR; summer warmth flattens; light wind generally_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Zack WheelerRHP · PHI	Yusei KikuchiLHP · LAA
xERA 2026	3.03	5.45
xwOBA 2026	0.271	0.355
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.019	0.010
xERA 2025	2.49	4.48
xwOBA 2025	0.247	0.327
Outs/TB 25-26	2.26	1.80
FIP 25-26	3.30	4.22
kwERA 25-26	2.38	3.84
K% 25-26	31.7%	22.5%
BB% 25-26	6.5%	9.5%
IP 25+26 combined	274.0	214.3
ERA actual 2026	3.40	6.25
ERA (L4)	7.71	9.00
WHIP (L4)	2.02	1.60
K% (L4)	25.0%	17.4%
BB% (L4)	17.5%	4.3%
IP/gm (L4)	4.08	5.00
L4 window	08/02→08/24 (4 st)	08/23→08/23 (1 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	110 (+5)	93 (−5)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.22 (+0.03)	6.44 (+2.23)
Arsenal RV/100	0.64	-0.77

away arsenal — PHI

RV/100 0.64

4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.284
Sinker—+1.60xwOBA 0.279
Split-Finger—+1.30xwOBA 0.234
Sweeper—+0.00xwOBA 0.266
Cutter—+0.00xwOBA 0.346
Curveball—+0.10xwOBA 0.191

home arsenal — LAA

RV/100 -0.77

4-Seam Fastball—-0.90xwOBA 0.302
Slider—-1.60xwOBA 0.350
Split-Finger—-0.10xwOBA 0.352
Curveball—+3.60xwOBA 0.295
Cutter—-4.40xwOBA 0.581

away · PHI vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.934

Σ match

3.228

Σ FRV

-14.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Kyle Schwarber	0.366	0.394	-0.8
2	SS	Trea Turner	0.293	0.317	-8.5
3	RF	Bryce Harper	0.394	0.418	-9.5
4	1B	Alec Bohm	0.319	0.353	-7.2
5	3B	Edmundo Sosa	0.336	0.387	+0.4
6	LF	Bryan De La Cruz	0.291	0.320	+0.8
7	2B	Bryson Stott	0.328	0.362	+5.7
8	C	J.T. Realmuto	0.320	0.349	+1.7
9	CF	Derek Hill	0.287	0.327	+2.7

home · LAA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.668

Σ match

2.447

Σ FRV

-1.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Wade Meckler	0.303	0.269	+1.9
2	DH	Mike Trout	0.379	0.338	-2.8
3	1B	Vaughn Grissom	0.311	0.280	-3.8
4	C	Moisés Ballesteros	0.294	0.260	-0.8
5	2B	Christian Moore	0.248	0.258	-2.0
6	RF	Josh Lowe	0.287	0.251	+4.8
7	CF	Jose Siri	0.311	0.287	+1.0
8	SS	Oswald Peraza	0.269	0.256	+0.1
9	3B	Denzer Guzman	0.266	0.247	+0.6

defense · PHI catcher (Savant FRV)

J.T. Realmuto

FRV+1.7
framing+0.4
blocking-1.2
throwing+2.5

defense · LAA catcher (Savant FRV)

Moisés Ballesteros

FRV-0.8
framing-0.9
blocking-0.6
throwing+0.5

PHI · Zack Wheeler

Last outing 2026-08-24 vs SEA · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	110
Location+	—	—	105
Pitching+	—	—	115
botOvr	—	—	63
SIERA	—	—	3.22

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-07 → 2026-08-24. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-24; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

LAA · Yusei Kikuchi

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs TEX · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 1
Stuff+	—	—	93
Location+	—	—	85
Pitching+	—	—	82
botOvr	—	—	46
SIERA	—	—	6.44

Last 1 starts: 2026-08-23 → 2026-08-23. 0/1 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

PHI · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.37R / inningband [0.32–0.42]

0.086 R/PA · 0.122 R/out · worst: Alex McFarlane (3.95)

LAA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.48]

0.095 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Luke Murphy (4.38)

PHI

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jhoan Duran	CLOSER	CL	1.41	33.8	4.5	0.94	28/0/35	stable
Jonathan Bowlan	SETUP	SU	2.91	31.0	7.0	0.93	2/11/2	stable
Brooks Raley	SETUP	MR	3.34	24.1	8.0	0.89	1/15/5	stable
Orion Kerkering	SETUP	SU	3.62	24.0	11.8	0.94	1/16/5	stable
José Alvarado	SETUP	MR	3.85	26.6	9.9	0.85	1/11/3	stable
Tim Mayza	OPENER	MR	3.21	24.9	6.3	1.15	0/1/9	stable
Chase Shugart	MR	LR	5.12	28.2	9.6	1.13	0/0/10	stable
Alex McFarlane	unknown	MR	2.59	24.2	12.1	—	0/0/0	—

LAA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Tayler Saucedo	MR	MR	2.42	30.4	5.4	0.56	0/5/0	stable
José Fermin	MR	SU	3.94	27.6	10.1	1.11	1/7/7	stable
Ryan Watson	MR	SU	4.19	19.6	8.0	1.61	2/4/21	stable
Mitch Farris	MR	MR	5.00	24.0	11.3	2.12	1/1/6	stable
Ben Joyce	unknown	CL	2.35	36.4	15.2	—	3/2/0	—
Blake Weiman	unknown	MR	3.07	18.6	2.3	—	0/2/0	—
Luke Murphy	unknown	MR	3.32	25.5	17.0	—	0/4/0	—
Sammy Peralta	unknown	LR	5.88	28.6	6.1	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 PHI · 2 LAA

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

PHI

5 R

10H · 2HR · 4BB · 8K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.350 · SLGe 0.514 · K% 20.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 9 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

LAA

2 R

8H · 0HR · 4BB · 9K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.333 · SLGe 0.303 · K% 23.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 8 K · relief 2.0 IP · 4 arms

PHI · standout lines

big nights

Edmundo Sosa (3B) · 1-3 | HR, K, RBIHR
J.T. Realmuto (C) · 2-3 | HR, BB, RBIHR

tough nights

Alec Bohm (1B) · 0-4 | BB, K0-for-4

LAA · standout lines

tough nights

Jose Siri (CF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K