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today's slate

TEX @ MIL

Sunday · August 30, 2026·full·gamePk 823740free Saturday

refreshed 649h 20m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · American Family Field

gametime 2:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

88°F

humidity 47%

wind

16 mph

cross LF to RF

precip

clear

park

MIL

retractable · HP→CF 137°

wind impact on total

neutralnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Kumar RockerRHP · TEX	Dustin MayRHP · MIL
xERA 2026	4.58	4.19
xwOBA 2026	0.329	0.316
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.001	-0.007
xERA 2025	5.73	5.20
xwOBA 2025	0.364	0.349
Outs/TB 25-26	1.73	1.96
FIP 25-26	4.54	4.14
kwERA 25-26	3.99	3.85
K% 25-26	20.6%	21.8%
BB% 25-26	8.8%	8.8%
IP 25+26 combined	191.0	256.7
ERA actual 2026	4.41	4.56
ERA (L4)	6.27	5.87
WHIP (L4)	1.77	1.37
K% (L4)	21.1%	18.5%
BB% (L4)	12.2%	10.8%
IP/gm (L4)	4.67	3.83
L4 window	08/09→08/24 (4 st)	08/06→08/26 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	88 (−4)	99 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.39 (+1.08)	5.01 (+0.99)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.04	0.10

away arsenal — TEX

RV/100 -0.04

Slider—+0.50xwOBA 0.225
Sinker—-0.60xwOBA 0.380
Cutter—-0.60xwOBA 0.434
4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.343
Changeup—+0.60xwOBA 0.491

home arsenal — MIL

RV/100 0.10

4-Seam Fastball—+0.60xwOBA 0.314
Cutter—+0.80xwOBA 0.307
Sweeper—-0.90xwOBA 0.302
Sinker—+1.10xwOBA 0.345
Changeup—-2.50xwOBA 0.349
Curveball—-1.50xwOBA 0.311

away · TEX vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.767

Σ match

2.882

Σ FRV

+22.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Joc Pederson	0.343	0.379	-2.3
2	SS	Corey Seager	0.345	0.353	+0.5
3	LF	Wyatt Langford	0.317	0.311	+3.3
4	RF	Brandon Nimmo	0.356	0.361	-4.3
5	2B	Ezequiel Duran	0.300	0.319	+12.6
6	1B	Jake Burger	0.312	0.327	+4.1
7	CF	Evan Carter	0.283	0.287	+6.9
8	3B	Cody Freeman	0.241	0.271	+1.2
9	C	Elias Díaz	0.270	0.273	+0.5

home · MIL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.911

Σ match

3.081

Σ FRV

+7.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Brice Turang	0.337	0.359	+11.9
2	CF	Garrett Mitchell	0.346	0.382	+3.9
3	1B	Jake Bauers	0.372	0.390	-8.7
4	LF	Jackson Chourio	0.342	0.358	+3.9
5	DH	Christian Yelich	0.318	0.322	+0.0
6	C	Gary Sánchez	0.343	0.347	-5.0
7	RF	Sal Frelick	0.284	0.302	-2.2
8	3B	David Hamilton	0.275	0.300	-5.8
9	SS	Joey Ortiz	0.294	0.320	+9.6

defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)

Elias Díaz

FRV+0.5
framing-0.1
blocking-0.2
throwing+0.8

defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)

Gary Sánchez

FRV-5.0
framing-2.2
blocking-1.7
throwing-0.0

TEX · Kumar Rocker

Last outing 2026-08-24 vs CWS · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	88
Location+	—	—	86
Pitching+	—	—	79
botOvr	—	—	43
SIERA	—	—	5.39

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-14 → 2026-08-24. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-24; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

MIL · Dustin May

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs NYM · 0.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	99
Location+	—	—	97
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	50
SIERA	—	—	5.01

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-26. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TEX · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.38–0.44]

0.097 R/PA · 0.137 R/out · worst: Adam Macko (3.94)

MIL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.36–0.45]

0.096 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Grant Anderson (3.97)

TEX

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jacob Latz	CLOSER	CL	2.45	29.7	8.2	1.28	26/2/26	stable
Jakob Junis	SETUP	SU	3.38	18.7	6.4	1.12	5/16/9	stable
Chase Silseth	SETUP	SU	3.97	26.0	13.7	0.85	0/13/7	stable
Cole Winn	SETUP	MR	3.99	22.8	7.4	0.93	1/9/5	stable
Peyton Gray	SETUP	MR	4.13	23.8	6.6	1.23	0/8/5	ramping down
Tyler Alexander	OPENER	MR	2.80	20.6	6.9	0.95	4/11/11	stable
Adam Macko	MR	MR	4.49	22.4	10.3	1.04	0/4/2	stable
Jordan Montgomery	unknown	LR	4.08	19.1	2.1	—	0/0/0	—

MIL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Trevor Megill	CLOSER	CL	1.76	28.1	6.9	0.97	25/7/21	stable
Aaron Ashby	SETUP	SU	2.90	31.8	11.3	1.23	2/13/5	stable
Grant Anderson	SETUP	MR	4.29	21.9	10.0	1.11	0/5/8	stable
Bryse Wilson	BULK	LR	2.92	20.7	1.5	2.73	0/0/3	ramping down
Chad Patrick	SWING	SU	3.90	21.3	9.2	2.46	5/10/5	ramping down
Antonio Senzatela	MR	MR	3.49	20.3	7.9	1.61	3/9/11	ramping down
DL Hall	MR	MR	3.65	28.4	15.9	1.29	0/5/5	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

7 TEX · 4 MIL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

TEX

7 R

10H · 2HR · 4BB · 8K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.349 · SLGe 0.526 · K% 18.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 11 K · relief 6.0 IP · 6 arms

MIL

4 R

7H · 1HR · 6BB · 11K · 20LOB

OBPe 0.342 · SLGe 0.324 · K% 26.8

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 8 K · relief 4.7 IP · 3 arms

TEX · standout lines

big nights

Joc Pederson (DH) · 1-4 | HR, HBP, 2 KHR
Ezequiel Duran (2B) · 2-5 | HR, 2B, KHR
Elias Díaz (C) · 2-3 | 2 2B, BB, K4 TB

tough nights

Wyatt Langford (LF) · 0-4 | BB, R0-for-4
Evan Carter (CF) · 0-5 | K0-for-5

MIL · standout lines

big nights

Gary Sánchez (C) · 1-3 | HR, BB, 2 KHR

tough nights

Christian Yelich (DH) · 0-4 | BB, 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K