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today's slate

CWS @ MIN

Sunday · August 30, 2026·full·gamePk 823662free Saturday

refreshed 650h 22m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Target Field

gametime 2:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

85°F

humidity 58%

wind

10 mph

in from LF

precip

clear

park

MIN

open · HP→CF 73°

wind impact on total

-0.16 R/Gminor cross

Minor wind cross: -0.16 R/G vs neutral. _Northwest summer winds — typically wind-in from LF, suppresses RH HR_

opener / bulk pattern

CWS: Jordan Hicks opens → bulk: Hagen Smith· predicted bulk based on 1/42 prior short outings

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Jordan HicksRHP · opener · CWS	Hagen SmithLHP · bulk · CWS	Zebby MatthewsRHP · MIN
xERA 2026	3.00	3.24	4.55
xwOBA 2026	0.270	0.280	0.328
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.040	-0.037	0.010
xERA 2025	4.58	—	4.67
xwOBA 2025	0.330	—	0.333
Outs/TB 25-26	1.89	4.71	1.68
FIP 25-26	4.05	4.08	4.36
kwERA 25-26	4.18	3.83	3.59
K% 25-26	21.8%	34.8%	22.2%
BB% 25-26	11.6%	21.7%	7.1%
IP 25+26 combined	107.3	11.0	183.0
ERA actual 2026	3.83	0.82	4.86
ERA (L4)	4.15	0.00	3.57
WHIP (L4)	1.85	0.75	1.32
K% (L4)	33.3%	40.0%	19.8%
BB% (L4)	14.3%	20.0%	6.2%
IP/gm (L4)	1.08	1.33	5.67
L4 window	08/08→08/17 (4 outs)	08/12→08/16 (2 outs)	08/07→08/24 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	118 (+4)	106 (−1)	93 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.64 (+1.75)	5.80 (+1.36)	4.20 (−0.00)
Arsenal RV/100	0.23	2.07	-0.34

away arsenal · BULK Hagen Smith — CWS

RV/100 2.07

4-Seam Fastball—+1.40xwOBA 0.375
Slider—+3.20xwOBA 0.183

home arsenal — MIN

RV/100 -0.34

4-Seam Fastball—+0.00xwOBA 0.374
Slider—+1.50xwOBA 0.261
Changeup—-2.60xwOBA 0.326
Curveball—-0.90xwOBA 0.202
Cutter—-1.70xwOBA 0.427
Sinker—-0.90xwOBA 0.481

away · CWS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.835

Σ match

3.085

Σ FRV

+2.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Sam Antonacci	0.341	0.361	-7.9
2	1B	Munetaka Murakami	0.364	0.412	-1.0
3	3B	Miguel Vargas	0.391	0.410	-4.2
4	DH	Andrew Benintendi	0.313	0.335	-1.6
5	RF	Braden Montgomery	0.320	0.368	+0.9
6	SS	Colson Montgomery	0.302	0.317	+7.3
7	LF	Tristan Peters	0.313	0.335	+9.6
8	CF	Brenton Doyle	0.239	0.264	-1.1
9	C	Drew Romo	0.252	0.283	+0.2

home · MIN vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.884

Σ match

2.773

Σ FRV

-23.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Luke Keaschall	0.312	0.304	-10.9
2	3B	Brooks Lee	0.273	0.285	-2.7
3	2B	Kody Clemens	0.336	0.306	-2.2
4	C	Ryan Jeffers	0.350	0.307	-2.2
5	DH	Josh Bell	0.329	0.341	-0.9
6	LF	Trevor Larnach	0.332	0.334	-1.2
7	1B	Royce Lewis	0.313	0.266	-2.2
8	SS	Kaelen Culpepper	0.315	0.316	-1.0
9	CF	Walker Jenkins	0.324	0.314	+0.0

defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)

Drew Romo

FRV+0.2
framing+0.7
blocking-1.1
throwing+0.7

defense · MIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Ryan Jeffers

FRV-2.2
framing+0.1
blocking+0.4
throwing-2.6

CWS · Hagen Smith

Last outing 2026-08-16 vs DET · 1.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 2
Stuff+	—	—	106
Location+	—	—	75
Pitching+	—	—	82
botOvr	—	—	47
SIERA	—	—	5.80

Last 2 outings: 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-16. 0/2 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

MIN · Zebby Matthews

Last outing 2026-08-24 vs ATH · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	93
Location+	—	—	103
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	4.20

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-24. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-24; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CWS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.34–0.52]

0.101 R/PA · 0.143 R/out · worst: Tyler Gilbert (5.95)

MIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.33–0.48]

0.095 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Kody Funderburk (4.62)

CWS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Sean Newcomb	SETUP	SU	2.86	22.7	8.6	1.51	4/11/6	ramping up
Grant Taylor	OPENER	CL	2.27	32.6	8.5	1.33	8/10/11	stable
Bryan Hudson	OPENER	CL	3.23	22.2	7.1	0.98	7/8/8	stable
Jordan Hicks	MR	MR	3.55	27.4	14.0	0.91	1/8/6	stable
José Urquidy	MR	MR	3.71	20.7	6.5	1.27	1/0/4	ramping down
Tyler Davis	MR	MR	4.10	20.8	14.2	1.10	1/0/6	stable
Trevor Richards	MR	MR	4.28	21.9	7.9	1.46	1/1/16	stable
Tyler Gilbert	MR	LR	11.80	13.6	18.2	0.92	0/0/0	ramping down
Hagen Smith	unknown	MR	4.08	34.8	21.7	—	0/1/0	—

MIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yoendrys Gómez	CLOSER	CL	4.59	21.2	12.5	1.12	20/6/26	ramping down
Jeff Hoffman	SETUP	SU	2.59	33.9	9.8	0.94	5/16/16	stable
Taylor Rogers	SETUP	MR	4.07	18.8	10.7	0.82	2/9/10	stable
Kody Funderburk	SETUP	MR	4.12	19.5	13.0	0.94	1/10/1	stable
Andrew Morris	OPENER	MR	3.17	21.5	8.0	1.31	4/20/6	ramping down
Tommy Nance	MR	MR	3.41	25.7	9.2	1.04	0/6/4	stable
A.J. Minter	MR	SU	3.88	21.2	4.4	1.00	0/6/8	stable
Travis Adams	MR	LR	4.23	25.9	10.4	1.46	2/1/6	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 CWS · 5 MIN

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CWS

1 R

6H · 0HR · 0BB · 5K · 9LOB

OBPe 0.182 · SLGe 0.212 · K% 15.2

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 5 ER · 3 K · relief 7.3 IP · 3 arms

MIN

5 R

9H · 1HR · 2BB · 3K · 9LOB

OBPe 0.333 · SLGe 0.452 · K% 9.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 5 K · relief 0.7 IP · 2 arms

CWS · standout lines

tough nights

Munetaka Murakami (1B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Andrew Benintendi (DH) · 0-40-for-4
Colson Montgomery (SS) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

MIN · standout lines

big nights

Luke Keaschall (RF) · 2-3 | HR, BB, RBIHR

tough nights

Kody Clemens (LF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4