Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

HOU @ NYM

Sunday · August 30, 2026·full·gamePk 823580free Saturday

refreshed 648h 25m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Citi Field

gametime 3:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

76°F

humidity 81%

wind

6 mph

out to RF

precip

overcast

park

NYM

open · HP→CF 21°

wind impact on total

+0.17 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.17 R/G vs neutral. _Citi Field's big CF dimensions + frequent NE winds = pitcher's park even in summer_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Ethan PeckoRHP · HOU	Zac ThorntonLHP · NYM
xERA 2026	8.64	4.46
xwOBA 2026	0.428	0.325
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.032	-0.032
xERA 2025	—	—
xwOBA 2025	—	—
Outs/TB 25-26	1.60	2.25
FIP 25-26	8.08	3.84
kwERA 25-26	6.02	4.00
K% 25-26	12.8%	17.9%
BB% 25-26	17.9%	6.3%
IP 25+26 combined	8.0	56.3
ERA actual 2026	7.88	2.88
ERA (L4)	10.38	2.86
WHIP (L4)	2.08	1.27
K% (L4)	4.8%	18.0%
BB% (L4)	19.0%	4.5%
IP/gm (L4)	4.33	5.50
L4 window	08/25→08/25 (1 st)	08/07→08/25 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	107	97 (+0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.99 (−1.00)	4.43 (+0.12)
Arsenal RV/100	2.30	0.66

away arsenal — HOU

RV/100 2.30

Sinker—+2.30xwOBA 0.376

home arsenal — NYM

RV/100 0.66

Cutter—+0.90xwOBA 0.340
4-Seam Fastball—+0.70xwOBA 0.341
Sweeper—+1.40xwOBA 0.235
Slider—-0.50xwOBA 0.376
Sinker—+1.60xwOBA 0.385
Changeup—-1.50xwOBA 0.261
Curveball—-1.00xwOBA 0.172

away · HOU vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.843

Σ match

2.974

Σ FRV

-6.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Jeremy Peña	0.328	0.351	-2.1
2	LF	Yordan Alvarez	0.457	0.474	-2.9
3	DH	Isaac Paredes	0.324	0.351	+0.6
4	2B	Jose Altuve	0.275	0.299	-6.1
5	1B	Christian Walker	0.302	0.309	+3.1
6	CF	Daulton Varsho	0.290	0.289	+3.2
7	C	Yainer Diaz	0.302	0.313	-4.1
8	RF	Cam Smith	0.320	0.344	+2.1
9	3B	Nick Allen	0.245	0.243	-0.3

home · NYM vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.982

Σ match

3.688

Σ FRV

+10.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Francisco Lindor	0.339	0.462	-0.4
2	DH	Juan Soto	0.421	0.498	-3.3
3	3B	Bo Bichette	0.322	0.354	-0.7
4	RF	Carson Benge	0.341	0.442	+5.1
5	1B	Jared Young	0.314	0.334	-0.8
6	LF	Luis Robert Jr.	0.324	0.424	+1.8
7	CF	A.J. Ewing	0.314	0.366	+6.1
8	2B	Marcus Semien	0.307	0.436	-6.3
9	C	Luis Torrens	0.300	0.372	+9.4

defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)

Yainer Diaz

FRV-4.1
framing-3.4
blocking-0.4
throwing-0.3

defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)

Luis Torrens

FRV+9.4
framing+5.6
blocking+1.4
throwing+2.3

HOU · Ethan Pecko

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs NYY · 4.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 1
Stuff+	—	—	107
Location+	—	—	81
Pitching+	—	—	91
botOvr	—	—	40
SIERA	—	—	5.99

Last 1 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-08-25. 0/1 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-25; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

NYM · Zac Thornton

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs MIL · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	97
Location+	—	—	97
Pitching+	—	—	93
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	4.43

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-25. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

HOU · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.36–0.44]

0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Bennett Sousa (4.24)

NYM · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.27–0.48]

0.089 R/PA · 0.126 R/out · worst: Jefry Yan (4.80)

HOU

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Josh Hader	CLOSER	CL	1.66	36.9	8.5	0.91	20/0/14	stable
Bryan Abreu	CLOSER	SU	4.66	29.4	16.3	0.92	7/11/21	stable
Steven Okert	SETUP	SU	3.27	25.8	5.5	1.01	0/19/1	stable
Enyel De Los Santos	SETUP	MR	3.56	22.4	5.3	1.07	5/9/13	stable
AJ Blubaugh	SETUP	MR	3.93	24.8	10.0	1.68	1/8/6	ramping up
Kai-Wei Teng	SWING	MR	4.67	22.5	9.5	2.76	0/3/1	ramping up
Bennett Sousa	MOP_UP	MR	4.11	22.6	12.9	0.67	0/6/2	stable
Tatsuya Imai	SP	LR	4.48	27.6	14.6	3.86	0/0/0	ramping down

NYM

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kodai Senga	BULK	CL	6.00	25.8	14.5	3.39	4/0/1	ramping down
Austin Warren	OPENER	MR	4.20	25.6	11.4	1.35	0/1/9	stable
Daniel Duarte	MR	SU	2.83	28.7	5.7	1.67	2/5/2	insufficient data
Jonathan Pintaro	MR	MR	4.89	24.4	14.4	2.47	0/1/2	ramping up
Chris Devenski	MOP_UP	LR	6.08	25.0	0.0	0.78	0/0/1	insufficient data
Nate Lavender	unknown	SU	1.33	34.3	5.7	—	0/6/0	—
Jefry Yan	unknown	MR	4.96	25.0	20.0	—	0/1/0	—
Dedniel Núñez	unknown	MR	5.33	22.5	0.0	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 HOU · 3 NYM

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

HOU

6 R

10H · 2HR · 1BB · 9K · 9LOB

OBPe 0.325 · SLGe 0.486 · K% 22.5

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 7 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

NYM

3 R

5H · 2HR · 4BB · 7K · 9LOB

OBPe 0.257 · SLGe 0.419 · K% 20.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 9 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

HOU · standout lines

big nights

Jeremy Peña (SS) · 2-5 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR
LaMonte Wade Jr. (RF) · 1-2 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR
Nick Allen (3B) · 3-4 | 2B3 H · 4 TB

tough nights

Yordan Alvarez (LF) · 0-5 | K0-for-5
Isaac Paredes (DH) · 0-4 | BB, 2 K, R0-for-4 · 2 K
Daulton Varsho (CF) · 0-4 | RBI0-for-4

NYM · standout lines

big nights

Francisco Lindor (SS) · 1-4 | HR, RBI, RHR
Juan Soto (DH) · 1-3 | HR, BB, KHR

tough nights

Carson Benge (RF) · 0-40-for-4
Jared Young (1B) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Luis Robert Jr. (LF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K