Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

BOS @ NYY

Sunday · August 30, 2026·full·gamePk 823502free Saturday

refreshed 649h 57m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Yankee Stadium

gametime 1:35 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

77°F

humidity 67%

wind

10 mph

out to LF

precip

11%

overcast

park

NYY

open · HP→CF 75°

wind impact on total

+0.20 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.20 R/G vs neutral. _Short RF porch is the story regardless of wind; cross winds barely matter, wind-out to RF supercharges short HR_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Ranger SuarezLHP · BOS	Will WarrenRHP · NYY
xERA 2026	3.61	4.61
xwOBA 2026	0.295	0.330
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.008	0.013
xERA 2025	3.14	4.58
xwOBA 2025	0.277	0.330
Outs/TB 25-26	2.21	1.76
FIP 25-26	3.10	4.16
kwERA 25-26	3.37	3.63
K% 25-26	23.5%	23.4%
BB% 25-26	6.6%	8.7%
IP 25+26 combined	275.7	289.3
ERA actual 2026	3.35	4.39
ERA (L4)	4.42	5.89
WHIP (L4)	1.42	1.75
K% (L4)	14.6%	19.8%
BB% (L4)	11.0%	10.5%
IP/gm (L4)	4.58	4.58
L4 window	08/06→08/24 (4 st)	08/05→08/25 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	91 (−3)	97 (−7)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.28 (+1.47)	4.68 (+0.68)
Arsenal RV/100	0.77	-0.83

away arsenal — BOS

RV/100 0.77

Sinker—-0.20xwOBA 0.355
4-Seam Fastball—+1.80xwOBA 0.308
Cutter—+1.20xwOBA 0.297
Curveball—+1.20xwOBA 0.194
Changeup—-0.30xwOBA 0.285
Slider—+0.20xwOBA 0.245

home arsenal — NYY

RV/100 -0.83

4-Seam Fastball—-0.10xwOBA 0.316
Sinker—-1.50xwOBA 0.360
Sweeper—-1.50xwOBA 0.376
Changeup—+0.30xwOBA 0.271
Curveball—-2.60xwOBA 0.262

away · BOS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.853

Σ match

3.065

Σ FRV

+41.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Roman Anthony	0.352	0.374	+0.5
2	CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.283	0.298	+14.9
3	RF	Wilyer Abreu	0.352	0.374	+4.7
4	1B	Willson Contreras	0.374	0.396	+2.9
5	C	Adley Rutschman	0.340	0.351	+9.9
6	3B	Caleb Durbin	0.288	0.306	+4.8
7	LF	Jarren Duran	0.298	0.344	+3.8
8	SS	Trevor Story	0.248	0.278	-2.5
9	2B	Nick Sogard	0.318	0.344	+3.0

home · NYY vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.813

Σ match

2.677

Σ FRV

+6.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	1B	Paul Goldschmidt	0.310	0.287	+6.2
2	LF	Cody Bellinger	0.347	0.326	+9.0
3	RF	Heliot Ramos	0.320	0.309	-5.7
4	DH	Luis García Jr.	0.354	0.332	+0.2
5	3B	Amed Rosario	0.313	0.296	-7.9
6	CF	Trent Grisham	0.339	0.315	-4.6
7	SS	José Caballero	0.281	0.269	+0.7
8	2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.293	0.295	+4.5
9	C	Ali Sánchez	0.256	0.249	+3.9

defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)

Adley Rutschman

FRV+9.9
framing+5.8
blocking+0.8
throwing+3.3

defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)

Ali Sánchez

FRV+3.9
framing+5.3
blocking-0.6
throwing-0.8

BOS · Ranger Suarez

Last outing 2026-08-24 vs MIA · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	91
Location+	—	—	112
Pitching+	—	—	99
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	5.28

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-24. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-24; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

NYY · Will Warren

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs HOU · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	97
Location+	—	—	104
Pitching+	—	—	103
botOvr	—	—	53
SIERA	—	—	4.68

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-25. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-25; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

BOS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.36R / inningband [0.29–0.42]

0.084 R/PA · 0.119 R/out · worst: Alec Gamboa (4.13)

NYY · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)5 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.35–0.51]

0.102 R/PA · 0.144 R/out · worst: Tim Hill (4.71)

BOS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Aroldis Chapman	CLOSER	CL	2.47	31.2	10.8	0.96	30/0/27	stable
Garrett Whitlock	SETUP	SU	2.19	29.2	4.1	0.97	2/22/7	stable
Tyron Guerrero	SETUP	SU	2.50	23.4	3.9	1.03	0/18/2	ramping up
Erik Miller	SETUP	SU	2.70	34.2	13.6	0.86	4/12/7	stable
Greg Weissert	SETUP	MR	4.17	23.8	7.5	0.96	1/6/4	stable
Jovani Morán	OPENER	MR	4.02	26.7	11.6	1.53	0/4/6	ramping down
Alec Gamboa	MR	MR	3.12	17.6	7.1	1.60	1/1/5	ramping up

NYY

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
David Bednar	CLOSER	CL	2.54	27.8	7.7	1.10	31/0/35	stable
Brent Headrick	SETUP	SU	2.25	30.2	7.4	1.01	0/23/6	stable
Tim Hill	SETUP	MR	5.47	11.1	5.3	0.84	2/10/6	stable
Paul Blackburn	OPENER	SU	3.61	20.7	9.4	1.53	1/9/13	stable
Ryan Yarbrough	MR	MR	3.75	17.3	9.3	1.59	3/1/14	stable
Michael Fulmer	unknown	LR	3.48	23.8	14.3	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 BOS · 16 NYY

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

BOS

1 R

7H · 0HR · 1BB · 7K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.250 · SLGe 0.290 · K% 21.9

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 16 ER · 4 K · relief 2.7 IP · 4 arms

NYY

16 R

18H · 5HR · 7BB · 4K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.532 · SLGe 0.892 · K% 8.5

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 7 K · relief 2.0 IP · 2 arms

BOS · standout lines

tough nights

Ceddanne Rafaela (CF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Adley Rutschman (C) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

NYY · standout lines

big nights

Paul Goldschmidt (1B) · 3-6 | HR, K, 3 RBIHR · 3 H
Heliot Ramos (RF) · 2-2 | HR, 2 BB, 3 RBIHR
José Caballero (SS) · 3-5 | HR, 3 RBI, 3 RHR · 3 H
Austin Wells (C) · 2-2 | 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 R2-HR night · 8 TB · 5 RBI