Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

PIT @ STL

Sunday · August 30, 2026·full·gamePk 823010free Saturday

refreshed 649h 15m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Busch Stadium

gametime 2:15 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

93°F

humidity 31%

wind

7 mph

out to CF

precip

clear

park

STL

open · HP→CF 4°

wind impact on total

+0.22 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.22 R/G vs neutral. _Busch's open bowl — summer south winds slightly aid HR; spring north winds suppress_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Braxton AshcraftRHP · PIT	Matthew LiberatoreLHP · STL
xERA 2026	3.41	4.94
xwOBA 2026	0.287	0.340
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.003	0.014
xERA 2025	3.41	4.86
xwOBA 2025	0.288	0.339
Outs/TB 25-26	2.17	1.73
FIP 25-26	3.31	4.24
kwERA 25-26	3.11	3.73
K% 25-26	25.4%	20.9%
BB% 25-26	6.3%	7.0%
IP 25+26 combined	225.0	280.7
ERA actual 2026	3.59	5.44
ERA (L4)	2.62	7.97
WHIP (L4)	0.75	1.33
K% (L4)	18.2%	28.7%
BB% (L4)	3.4%	4.6%
IP/gm (L4)	6.00	5.08
L4 window	08/01→08/24 (4 st)	08/08→08/25 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	111 (+4)	97 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	2.91 (−0.41)	3.32 (−0.66)
Arsenal RV/100	0.61	-0.78

away arsenal — PIT

RV/100 0.61

4-Seam Fastball—-1.00xwOBA 0.329
Curveball—+2.00xwOBA 0.226
Slider—+0.00xwOBA 0.283
Sinker—+2.60xwOBA 0.308
Split-Finger—-0.40xwOBA 0.294

home arsenal — STL

RV/100 -0.78

4-Seam Fastball—-0.30xwOBA 0.390
Slider—-0.10xwOBA 0.261
Curveball—-1.10xwOBA 0.244
Changeup—-0.50xwOBA 0.399
Sinker—-2.20xwOBA 0.384
Cutter—-5.30xwOBA 0.379

away · PIT vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.894

Σ match

3.076

Σ FRV

+1.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Jared Triolo	0.291	0.305	-0.5
2	DH	Oneil Cruz	0.357	0.380	-0.5
3	LF	Bryan Reynolds	0.348	0.373	-3.5
4	C	Rafael Flores Jr.	0.345	0.350	+0.0
5	2B	Brandon Lowe	0.320	0.349	+9.2
6	RF	Esmerlyn Valdez	0.336	0.359	-1.9
7	CF	Jake Mangum	0.285	0.301	+2.7
8	1B	Spencer Horwitz	0.317	0.341	-3.4
9	3B	Nick Yorke	0.295	0.319	-0.3

home · STL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.803

Σ match

2.624

Σ FRV

-9.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Bryan Torres	0.296	0.273	+2.9
2	C	Iván Herrera	0.331	0.307	-4.0
3	1B	Alec Burleson	0.380	0.359	+3.8
4	RF	Jordan Walker	0.354	0.314	-6.7
5	DH	Nolan Gorman	0.280	0.277	+0.3
6	2B	José Fermín	0.295	0.279	-3.5
7	CF	Nathan Church	0.285	0.263	+0.6
8	3B	Ramón Urías	0.312	0.292	-2.8
9	SS	Thomas Saggese	0.270	0.259	+0.1

defense · PIT catcher (Savant FRV)

Rafael Flores Jr.

FRV+0.0
framing+0.6
blocking-0.1
throwing-1.1

defense · STL catcher (Savant FRV)

Iván Herrera

FRV-4.0
framing-0.9
blocking+0.2
throwing-3.3

PIT · Braxton Ashcraft

Last outing 2026-08-24 vs SD · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	111
Location+	—	—	112
Pitching+	—	—	118
botOvr	—	—	65
SIERA	—	—	2.91

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-06 → 2026-08-24. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-24; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

STL · Matthew Liberatore

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs BAL · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	97
Location+	—	—	99
Pitching+	—	—	96
botOvr	—	—	49
SIERA	—	—	3.32

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-14 → 2026-08-25. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-25; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

PIT · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.35–0.42]

0.092 R/PA · 0.130 R/out · worst: Camilo Doval (4.03)

STL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.36–0.55]

0.107 R/PA · 0.152 R/out · worst: Gordon Graceffo (4.85)

PIT

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Gregory Soto	CLOSER	SU	3.30	27.8	9.8	0.99	14/10/21	stable
Kirby Yates	CLOSER	MR	3.33	27.7	10.2	0.87	3/0/15	stable
Luke Weaver	SETUP	SU	2.66	27.1	7.0	1.05	1/16/4	stable
Evan Sisk	SETUP	MR	3.48	26.4	11.0	1.14	0/5/5	stable
Yohan Ramírez	SETUP	MR	3.61	27.4	13.4	1.28	2/6/8	stable
Mason Montgomery	OPENER	CL	2.22	39.7	9.8	0.97	6/9/7	stable
Lake Bachar	OPENER	LR	4.63	25.0	9.7	1.53	2/1/10	stable
Camilo Doval	MOP_UP	MR	4.53	23.3	11.9	0.90	1/5/10	stable

STL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Riley O'Brien	CLOSER	CL	3.62	23.0	9.8	0.99	34/1/33	stable
Justin Bruihl	SETUP	MR	3.83	15.0	8.5	1.11	0/10/5	ramping up
George Soriano	SETUP	SU	4.57	23.0	10.7	0.98	2/20/7	stable
Ryne Stanek	SETUP	SU	4.85	24.2	12.3	0.89	2/24/5	stable
Brycen Mautz	BULK	MR	3.41	34.5	10.3	3.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Ryan Fernandez	MR	MR	3.22	28.1	10.1	1.21	0/2/4	ramping down
Luis Gastelum	MR	MR	4.16	31.2	6.2	1.00	0/1/1	stable
Gordon Graceffo	MR	MR	4.24	16.0	11.5	1.18	1/6/10	stable
Cade Winquest	unknown	LR	2.58	33.3	16.7	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 PIT · 4 STL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

PIT

5 R

8H · 2HR · 4BB · 15K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.300 · SLGe 0.444 · K% 37.5

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 6 K · relief 4.0 IP · 6 arms

STL

4 R

9H · 0HR · 3BB · 6K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.308 · SLGe 0.286 · K% 15.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 15 K · relief 3.3 IP · 4 arms

PIT · standout lines

big nights

Jared Triolo (SS) · 1-4 | HR, BB, 2 KHR
Esmerlyn Valdez (RF) · 1-4 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Rafael Flores Jr. (C) · 0-4 | BB, 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Nick Yorke (3B) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K

STL · standout lines

big nights

Thomas Saggese (SS) · 3-4 | 2 R3 H

tough nights

Jordan Walker (RF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Nolan Gorman (DH) · 0-40-for-4
Nathan Church (CF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4