Baseball Daily

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today's slate

SD @ TB

Sunday · August 30, 2026·full·gamePk 822933free Saturday

refreshed 648h 51m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · George M. Steinbrenner Field

gametime 1:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

83°F

humidity 84%

wind

11 mph

in from CF

precip

10%

light drizzle

park

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

-0.40 R/Gmoderate in

Moderate wind in: -0.40 R/G vs neutral. _Steinbrenner Field is fully open spring training park — first wind-sensitive home for the Rays since Tropicana_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Robbie RayLHP · SD	Drew RasmussenRHP · TB
xERA 2026	4.58	3.14
xwOBA 2026	0.329	0.276
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.019	-0.026
xERA 2025	3.71	3.48
xwOBA 2025	0.300	0.291
Outs/TB 25-26	2.14	2.52
FIP 25-26	4.21	3.40
kwERA 25-26	3.94	3.20
K% 25-26	22.7%	23.8%
BB% 25-26	10.5%	5.5%
IP 25+26 combined	325.3	290.3
ERA actual 2026	3.21	2.95
ERA (L4)	3.98	3.13
WHIP (L4)	1.48	0.91
K% (L4)	17.0%	23.6%
BB% (L4)	14.8%	5.6%
IP/gm (L4)	5.08	5.75
L4 window	08/07→08/24 (4 st)	08/07→08/24 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	91 (−3)	112 (+3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	6.19 (+1.33)	4.04 (+0.78)
Arsenal RV/100	0.31	1.29

away arsenal — SD

RV/100 0.31

4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.380
Slider—-0.10xwOBA 0.325
Changeup—+1.60xwOBA 0.253
Sinker—-0.70xwOBA 0.397
Curveball—+2.30xwOBA 0.230

home arsenal — TB

RV/100 1.29

Cutter—+0.70xwOBA 0.296
4-Seam Fastball—+0.60xwOBA 0.291
Sinker—+2.70xwOBA 0.256
Changeup—+2.20xwOBA 0.200
Curveball—+2.70xwOBA 0.267
Sweeper—-2.80xwOBA 0.391

away · SD vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.838

Σ match

2.615

Σ FRV

+39.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.374	0.339	+5.1
2	2B	Jake Cronenworth	0.282	0.265	-1.9
3	DH	Manny Machado	0.330	0.322	+4.3
4	1B	Ty France	0.331	0.301	+8.3
5	CF	Jackson Merrill	0.335	0.304	+8.4
6	SS	Xander Bogaerts	0.323	0.305	+4.6
7	LF	Dustin Harris	0.328	0.297	+0.4
8	C	Freddy Fermin	0.277	0.249	+8.1
9	3B	Sung-Mun Song	0.258	0.234	+2.6

home · TB vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.776

Σ match

2.889

Σ FRV

-6.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Yandy Díaz	0.355	0.374	—
2	1B	Jonathan Aranda	0.349	0.351	-2.1
3	3B	Junior Caminero	0.364	0.386	-11.2
4	RF	Ryan Vilade	0.326	0.345	-2.3
5	LF	Chandler Simpson	0.262	0.278	+2.8
6	CF	Jonny DeLuca	0.272	0.274	+8.6
7	2B	Jorge Mateo	0.317	0.328	+0.7
8	C	Nick Fortes	0.283	0.294	-1.0
9	SS	Taylor Walls	0.248	0.259	-2.0

defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)

Freddy Fermin

FRV+8.1
framing+2.7
blocking+1.7
throwing+3.6

defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)

Nick Fortes

FRV-1.0
framing-0.8
blocking-0.1
throwing-0.0

SD · Robbie Ray

Last outing 2026-08-24 vs PIT · 5.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	91
Location+	—	—	83
Pitching+	—	—	78
botOvr	—	—	39
SIERA	—	—	6.19

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-24. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-24; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

TB · Drew Rasmussen

Last outing 2026-08-24 vs DET · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	112
Location+	—	—	89
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	54
SIERA	—	—	4.04

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-24. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.34–0.47]

0.095 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Wandy Peralta (4.56)

TB · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.30–0.46]

0.090 R/PA · 0.127 R/out · worst: Manuel Rodríguez (4.20)

SD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Mason Miller	CLOSER	CL	0.86	47.7	9.3	1.04	32/0/34	stable
Adrian Morejon	SETUP	SU	2.38	30.0	7.1	1.16	2/21/6	stable
Kyle Hart	SETUP	MR	3.31	22.5	7.9	1.40	0/7/5	stable
Bradgley Rodriguez	OPENER	SU	2.46	26.1	7.2	1.09	2/10/5	stable
Wandy Peralta	OPENER	MR	4.12	15.1	8.1	1.17	0/4/14	stable
David Morgan	MR	MR	4.09	24.5	12.7	1.22	0/1/5	stable
Yuki Matsui	MR	MR	4.26	26.3	14.1	1.35	0/8/5	ramping down
Griffin Canning	SP	LR	4.83	22.4	10.2	4.24	0/1/0	ramping down

TB

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Bryan Baker	CLOSER	CL	2.91	28.4	8.2	0.96	39/2/28	stable
Kevin Kelly	SETUP	SU	3.19	21.1	4.6	1.10	4/28/9	stable
Garrett Cleavinger	SETUP	MR	3.55	31.0	10.5	0.88	2/23/3	stable
Tyler Wells	SETUP	SU	3.57	25.1	6.4	1.26	5/14/13	stable
Casey Legumina	OPENER	MR	3.55	18.2	5.7	1.25	0/7/7	stable
Steven Matz	SWING	LR	5.31	17.4	7.3	3.53	1/1/1	ramping down
Cam Booser	MR	MR	3.30	32.5	5.1	1.11	0/9/5	stable
Manuel Rodríguez	unknown	MR	3.08	30.0	20.0	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

4 SD · 5 TB

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SD

4 R

6H · 0HR · 4BB · 12K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.238 · SLGe 0.171 · K% 28.6

Their pitching

10.3 IP · 4 ER · 10 K · relief 4.3 IP · 6 arms

TB

5 R

7H · 2HR · 5BB · 10K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.302 · SLGe 0.361 · K% 23.3

Their pitching

11.0 IP · 2 ER · 12 K · relief 5.0 IP · 6 arms

SD · standout lines

tough nights

Fernando Tatis Jr. (RF) · 0-40-for-4
Jake Cronenworth (2B) · 0-5 | 2 K0-for-5 · 2 K
Freddy Fermin (C) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K

TB · standout lines

big nights

Junior Caminero (3B) · 2-4 | HR, BB, 2 KHR
Jonny DeLuca (RF) · 1-5 | HR, K, 3 RBIHR

tough nights

Taylor Walls (SS) · 0-3 | HBP, 2 K, SB0-for-3 · 2 K