Baseball Daily

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today's slate

SEA @ TOR

Sunday · August 30, 2026·full·gamePk 822766free Saturday

refreshed 649h 56m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Rogers Centre

gametime 1:37 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

68°F

humidity 87%

wind

6 mph

out to CF

precip

21%

overcast

park

TOR

retractable · HP→CF 0°

wind impact on total

neutralnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Logan GilbertRHP · SEA	Max ScherzerRHP · TOR
xERA 2026	3.69	4.81
xwOBA 2026	0.298	0.336
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.014	0.026
xERA 2025	3.09	4.64
xwOBA 2025	0.275	0.332
Outs/TB 25-26	2.13	1.56
FIP 25-26	3.48	5.48
kwERA 25-26	2.64	3.94
K% 25-26	29.1%	20.3%
BB% 25-26	6.1%	8.2%
IP 25+26 combined	286.3	135.0
ERA actual 2026	3.36	7.02
ERA (L4)	3.80	5.31
WHIP (L4)	1.23	1.33
K% (L4)	22.4%	15.9%
BB% (L4)	11.2%	10.2%
IP/gm (L4)	5.92	5.08
L4 window	08/01→08/24 (4 st)	08/02→08/25 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	115 (+5)	98 (+5)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.73 (+0.24)	5.35 (−0.05)
Arsenal RV/100	0.74	-1.07

away arsenal — SEA

RV/100 0.74

4-Seam Fastball—+0.90xwOBA 0.360
Slider—+1.30xwOBA 0.308
Split-Finger—-0.10xwOBA 0.188
Changeup—+0.50xwOBA 0.257
Sweeper—+1.10xwOBA 0.215
Cutter—-0.70xwOBA 0.344

home arsenal — TOR

RV/100 -1.07

4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.367
Slider—-5.20xwOBA 0.369
Changeup—+0.00xwOBA 0.232
Curveball—-0.70xwOBA 0.313

away · SEA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.850

Σ match

3.126

Σ FRV

-19.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Randy Arozarena	0.347	0.365	-7.0
2	DH	Dominic Canzone	0.357	0.412	+0.5
3	CF	Julio Rodríguez	0.343	0.385	-0.6
4	C	Cal Raleigh	0.310	0.324	-0.5
5	1B	Josh Naylor	0.316	0.339	+2.7
6	RF	Taylor Ward	0.337	0.359	-1.5
7	2B	Cole Young	0.315	0.343	-2.7
8	SS	J.P. Crawford	0.320	0.352	-6.8
9	3B	Brock Rodden	0.205	0.247	-3.2

home · TOR vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.656

Σ match

2.621

Σ FRV

+36.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Brett Bateman	0.259	0.268	+3.3
2	1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0.333	0.311	+3.6
3	C	Alejandro Kirk	0.311	0.313	+8.8
4	DH	George Springer	0.306	0.298	-0.3
5	RF	Nathan Lukes	0.292	0.294	+6.3
6	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	0.318	0.323	-2.9
7	SS	Andrés Giménez	0.267	0.245	+14.1
8	2B	Charles McAdoo	0.275	0.287	-0.1
9	LF	Myles Straw	0.295	0.281	+3.7

defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)

Cal Raleigh

FRV-0.5
framing-1.3
blocking+3.2
throwing-2.4

defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)

Alejandro Kirk

FRV+8.8
framing+5.8
blocking+3.6
throwing-0.6

SEA · Logan Gilbert

Last outing 2026-08-24 vs PHI · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	115
Location+	—	—	103
Pitching+	—	—	117
botOvr	—	—	60
SIERA	—	—	3.73

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-07 → 2026-08-24. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-24; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

TOR · Max Scherzer

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs KC · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	98
Location+	—	—	108
Pitching+	—	—	105
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	5.35

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-08 → 2026-08-25. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-25; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SEA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.33–0.49]

0.097 R/PA · 0.137 R/out · worst: José A. Ferrer (4.05)

TOR · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.37–0.54]

0.107 R/PA · 0.152 R/out · worst: CJ Van Eyk (5.74)

SEA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Andrés Muñoz	CLOSER	CL	3.08	37.7	9.8	0.93	24/0/29	stable
Gabe Speier	SETUP	MR	3.94	20.7	8.7	0.82	1/17/5	stable
Eduard Bazardo	SETUP	MR	4.03	23.6	7.8	0.94	0/25/2	stable
José A. Ferrer	SETUP	SU	4.07	17.7	6.4	0.89	3/13/7	stable
Seranthony Domínguez	SETUP	MR	5.11	26.9	13.7	0.89	12/5/18	stable
Michael Rucker	MR	LR	3.73	26.8	9.2	1.05	0/1/6	stable
Carlos Vargas	unknown	MR	1.13	32.0	4.0	—	0/0/0	—

TOR

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Louis Varland	CLOSER	CL	1.79	31.5	6.7	1.11	31/5/31	stable
Paul Sewald	CLOSER	MR	5.36	25.8	6.5	0.91	24/1/33	stable
Tyler Rogers	SETUP	SU	3.22	13.6	8.1	0.97	4/29/6	stable
Mason Fluharty	OPENER	MR	3.71	25.4	10.3	0.76	1/15/5	stable
Braydon Fisher	OPENER	MR	4.30	23.1	13.2	1.05	1/12/7	stable
Spencer Miles	SWING	SU	2.83	22.3	6.0	2.37	1/4/6	ramping up
CJ Van Eyk	MR	LR	6.08	2.9	5.7	2.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Brendon Little	MOP_UP	MR	6.03	31.7	19.8	0.95	0/3/2	ramping up
Michael Lorenzen	SP	MR	5.17	14.7	8.7	4.62	0/0/0	ramping up

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

0 SEA · 7 TOR

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SEA

0 R

1H · 0HR · 2BB · 15K · 4LOB

OBPe 0.100 · SLGe 0.071 · K% 50.0

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 7 ER · 5 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

TOR

7 R

10H · 2HR · 4BB · 5K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.395 · SLGe 0.594 · K% 13.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 15 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

SEA · standout lines

tough nights

Randy Arozarena (LF) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Dominic Canzone (DH) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Julio Rodríguez (CF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

TOR · standout lines

big nights

Alejandro Kirk (C) · 2-4 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR
Kazuma Okamoto (3B) · 1-3 | HR, BB, RBIHR