Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

MIA @ WSH

Sunday · August 30, 2026·full·gamePk 822688free Saturday

refreshed 650h 16m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Nationals Park

gametime 12:15 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

81°F

humidity 75%

wind

9 mph

out to CF

precip

mostly clear

park

WSH

open · HP→CF 30°

wind impact on total

+0.28 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.28 R/G vs neutral. _Nationals Park has noticeable wind variability — open bowl on Anacostia, weather matters_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Janson JunkRHP · MIA	Andrew AlvarezLHP · WSH
xERA 2026	4.19	4.58
xwOBA 2026	0.316	0.329
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.006	-0.021
xERA 2025	4.45	2.87
xwOBA 2025	0.326	0.265
Outs/TB 25-26	1.91	2.48
FIP 25-26	3.62	3.40
kwERA 25-26	3.92	4.03
K% 25-26	16.8%	21.9%
BB% 25-26	4.5%	10.5%
IP 25+26 combined	208.3	108.0
ERA actual 2026	4.21	3.72
ERA (L4)	2.89	3.27
WHIP (L4)	1.23	0.91
K% (L4)	9.1%	20.0%
BB% (L4)	5.2%	8.2%
IP/gm (L4)	4.67	5.50
L4 window	08/06→08/23 (4 st)	08/03→08/25 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	87 (−13)	94 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.41 (+0.85)	4.81 (+0.72)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.26	0.21

away arsenal — MIA

RV/100 -0.26

4-Seam Fastball—+0.30xwOBA 0.319
Slider—-0.20xwOBA 0.334
Changeup—+0.10xwOBA 0.294
Sweeper—-2.10xwOBA 0.309
Curveball—-0.60xwOBA 0.311
Sinker—-0.20xwOBA 0.335

home arsenal — WSH

RV/100 0.21

Curveball—+0.80xwOBA 0.222
4-Seam Fastball—-0.20xwOBA 0.398
Slider—-0.80xwOBA 0.381
Sinker—+0.70xwOBA 0.431
Changeup—+2.20xwOBA 0.122

away · MIA vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.667

Σ match

2.936

Σ FRV

+6.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Heriberto Hernández	0.353	0.395	+0.4
2	SS	Otto Lopez	0.325	0.376	+9.9
3	DH	Agustín Ramírez	0.280	0.289	-4.1
4	RF	Esteury Ruiz	0.299	0.306	-2.8
5	2B	Xavier Edwards	0.313	0.342	-2.0
6	3B	Javier Sanoja	0.282	0.317	+3.3
7	1B	Leo Jiménez	0.320	0.343	-4.6
8	CF	Jakob Marsee	0.301	0.312	+3.1
9	C	Brian Navarreto	0.194	0.256	+3.0

home · WSH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.815

Σ match

2.902

Σ FRV

+10.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	CJ Abrams	0.332	0.337	-11.5
2	DH	Abimelec Ortiz	0.327	0.340	-0.5
3	1B	Andrés Chaparro	0.371	0.407	-2.0
4	LF	Daylen Lile	0.324	0.314	+2.5
5	RF	Dylan Crews	0.315	0.316	+1.5
6	3B	Jorbit Vivas	0.294	0.295	+2.5
7	C	Harry Ford	0.268	0.299	-0.1
8	CF	Jacob Young	0.318	0.324	+9.8
9	SS	Nasim Nuñez	0.266	0.270	+8.3

defense · MIA catcher (Savant FRV)

Brian Navarreto

FRV+3.0
framing+0.5
blocking+0.2
throwing+2.3

defense · WSH catcher (Savant FRV)

Harry Ford

FRV-0.1
framing+0.1
blocking+0.6
throwing-0.8

MIA · Janson Junk

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs BOS · 1.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	87
Location+	—	—	97
Pitching+	—	—	88
botOvr	—	—	46
SIERA	—	—	5.41

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

WSH · Andrew Alvarez

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs COL · 4.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	94
Location+	—	—	92
Pitching+	—	—	90
botOvr	—	—	48
SIERA	—	—	4.81

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-08 → 2026-08-25. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-25; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.35–0.52]

0.103 R/PA · 0.146 R/out · worst: Victor Vodnik (4.87)

WSH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.33–0.52]

0.099 R/PA · 0.141 R/out · worst: Luis Perales (5.40)

MIA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Calvin Faucher	SETUP	SU	2.93	25.8	13.1	0.98	2/14/7	stable
Michael Petersen	SETUP	SU	3.47	28.5	11.4	1.06	1/22/4	stable
Dax Fulton	BULK	MR	3.34	21.3	16.4	2.50	0/0/3	ramping down
Josh Ekness	MR	MR	3.83	17.6	10.8	0.89	1/1/2	stable
Victor Vodnik	MR	MR	4.28	16.3	11.9	1.08	4/6/12	stable
Tyler Zuber	MR	SU	4.44	24.8	4.8	0.87	1/8/5	stable
Jack Ralston	unknown	MR	1.69	20.0	0.0	—	0/1/0	—

WSH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Orlando Ribalta	SETUP	SU	4.00	22.9	10.3	0.92	2/12/6	stable
Tom Cosgrove	SETUP	MR	4.10	20.3	7.2	1.17	1/3/1	ramping up
Brad Lord	SETUP	LR	4.24	21.5	9.4	2.15	1/6/4	stable
Clayton Beeter	SETUP	CL	5.20	23.0	15.8	0.96	12/7/11	stable
Will Dion	MR	SU	3.83	29.5	6.5	1.79	0/0/6	ramping down
Max Kranick	MOP_UP	MR	5.84	12.7	10.1	0.67	0/1/0	insufficient data
Erik Tolman	unknown	MR	2.65	22.2	11.1	—	0/1/0	—
Luis Perales	unknown	MR	11.08	23.1	23.1	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 MIA · 2 WSH

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIA

6 R

4H · 1HR · 7BB · 9K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.308 · SLGe 0.233 · K% 23.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 6 K · relief 4.3 IP · 5 arms

WSH

2 R

6H · 0HR · 5BB · 6K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.314 · SLGe 0.276 · K% 17.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 9 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

MIA · standout lines

big nights

Otto Lopez (SS) · 1-5 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Heriberto Hernández (LF) · 0-4 | BB, 3 K, R0-for-4 · 3 K
Javier Sanoja (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

WSH · standout lines

tough nights

CJ Abrams (2B) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Dylan Crews (RF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4