Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

BAL @ ATH

Saturday · August 29, 2026·full·gamePk 824961free Saturday

refreshed 667h 27m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Sutter Health Park

gametime 10:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

79°F

humidity 35%

wind

11 mph

out to CF

precip

clear

park

ATH

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

+0.40 R/Gmoderate out

Moderate wind out: +0.40 R/G vs neutral. _Sutter Health Park (Sacramento) — open bowl, delta breeze in afternoon_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Shane BazRHP · BAL	Jack PerkinsRHP · ATH
xERA 2026	4.05	4.08
xwOBA 2026	0.311	0.312
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.004	0.043
xERA 2025	3.88	3.64
xwOBA 2025	0.306	0.297
Outs/TB 25-26	1.89	1.90
FIP 25-26	3.87	4.58
kwERA 25-26	3.67	3.63
K% 25-26	22.9%	24.6%
BB% 25-26	8.6%	9.8%
IP 25+26 combined	317.7	129.0
ERA actual 2026	4.04	6.68
ERA (L4)	5.09	9.00
WHIP (L4)	1.22	1.84
K% (L4)	25.5%	19.8%
BB% (L4)	7.4%	8.8%
IP/gm (L4)	5.75	4.75
L4 window	08/07→08/23 (4 st)	07/27→08/12 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	99 (+1)	93 (−6)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.64 (−0.62)	4.78 (+0.98)
Arsenal RV/100	0.02	-0.81

away arsenal — BAL

RV/100 0.02

4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.321
Curveball—-0.60xwOBA 0.270
Cutter—+1.00xwOBA 0.339
Changeup—-2.30xwOBA 0.401
Sinker—+2.70xwOBA 0.306

home arsenal — ATH

RV/100 -0.81

4-Seam Fastball—-2.70xwOBA 0.388
Sweeper—+1.00xwOBA 0.273
Changeup—+0.00xwOBA 0.219
Cutter—+0.30xwOBA 0.290
Sinker—-9.60xwOBA 0.424
Slider—+3.50xwOBA 0.182

away · BAL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.924

Σ match

2.858

Σ FRV

-9.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Jackson Holliday	0.306	0.315	-2.9
2	DH	Pete Alonso	0.393	0.395	-2.0
3	SS	Gunnar Henderson	0.316	0.305	+0.2
4	3B	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0.358	0.341	+1.9
5	C	Samuel Basallo	0.323	0.316	-2.5
6	LF	Dylan Beavers	0.310	0.297	-6.9
7	1B	Coby Mayo	0.316	0.304	-2.1
8	CF	Colton Cowser	0.326	0.329	+6.2
9	RF	Leody Taveras	0.276	0.255	-1.8

home · ATH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.762

Σ match

2.829

Σ FRV

-34.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Henry Bolte	0.304	0.321	+3.4
2	1B	Jeff McNeil	0.307	0.324	-3.5
3	2B	Zack Gelof	0.302	0.299	-1.3
4	RF	Lawrence Butler	0.316	0.306	-10.1
5	3B	Tommy White	0.314	0.327	-2.3
6	SS	Donovan Walton	0.323	0.338	-5.2
7	DH	Max Muncy	0.290	0.301	-5.2
8	LF	Carlos Cortes	0.311	0.306	-5.6
9	C	Jonah Heim	0.295	0.308	-4.2

defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)

Samuel Basallo

FRV-2.5
framing-4.4
blocking+0.6
throwing+1.8

defense · ATH catcher (Savant FRV)

Jonah Heim

FRV-4.2
framing-0.5
blocking-1.8
throwing-0.9

BAL · Shane Baz

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs TB · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	99
Location+	—	—	111
Pitching+	—	—	109
botOvr	—	—	54
SIERA	—	—	3.64

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

ATH · Jack Perkins

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs HOU · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	93
Location+	—	—	90
Pitching+	—	—	87
botOvr	—	—	47
SIERA	—	—	4.78

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-12. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

BAL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.37–0.42]

0.093 R/PA · 0.132 R/out · worst: Anthony Nunez (3.83)

ATH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.37–0.50]

0.103 R/PA · 0.146 R/out · worst: Kade Morris (5.04)

BAL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yennier Cano	SETUP	SU	2.44	21.7	5.7	0.74	2/11/6	stable
Grant Wolfram	SETUP	MR	3.15	24.7	7.7	0.80	1/12/3	stable
Andrew Kittredge	SETUP	CL	3.75	19.1	6.0	0.87	7/9/11	stable
Anthony Nunez	SETUP	MR	3.89	24.8	11.7	1.12	3/6/7	stable
Rico Garcia	SETUP	CL	4.15	26.2	8.4	0.93	6/15/16	stable
Alex Hoppe	MR	MR	2.75	26.0	8.4	1.14	1/3/13	stable
Cam Sanders	MR	LR	3.54	28.1	14.6	1.00	3/0/5	stable
Josh Walker	MR	MR	3.79	22.1	7.8	1.20	0/2/3	ramping down

ATH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Luis Medina	SETUP	SU	3.87	27.8	12.0	1.38	0/9/10	stable
Hogan Harris	SETUP	CL	3.93	28.9	13.9	0.93	13/12/13	stable
Kade Morris	BULK	LR	7.58	11.9	9.0	3.33	0/0/2	insufficient data
José Suarez	OPENER	MR	3.79	23.3	9.7	1.59	1/3/13	stable
Brady Basso	MR	MR	3.41	17.5	3.3	1.22	0/3/0	ramping up
Elvis Alvarado	MR	CL	4.53	29.8	11.2	1.08	5/8/11	stable
Chris Roycroft	MR	MR	7.66	14.4	9.6	1.28	1/0/6	ramping up
Scott Blewett	unknown	MR	2.68	15.1	7.0	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 BAL · 3 ATH

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

BAL

5 R

7H · 1HR · 5BB · 9K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.308 · SLGe 0.353 · K% 23.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 7 K · relief 3.3 IP · 6 arms

ATH

3 R

10H · 0HR · 6BB · 7K · 22LOB

OBPe 0.415 · SLGe 0.324 · K% 17.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 9 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

BAL · standout lines

big nights

Colton Cowser (CF) · 1-4 | HR, RBI, 2 RHR
Leody Taveras (RF) · 2-3 | 2 2B, BB, 3 RBI4 TB

tough nights

Pete Alonso (DH) · 0-5 | 3 K0-for-5 · 3 K
Samuel Basallo (C) · 0-40-for-4

ATH · standout lines

tough nights

Tommy White (3B) · 0-5 | K0-for-5