Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

COL @ ATL

Saturday · August 29, 2026·full·gamePk 824874free Saturday

refreshed 672h 15m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Truist Park

gametime 4:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

80°F

humidity 77%

wind

7 mph

out to LF

precip

overcast

park

ATL

open · HP→CF 63°

wind impact on total

+0.11 R/Gminor cross

Minor wind cross: +0.11 R/G vs neutral. _Truist's open bowl + foul-territory small footprint — wind out to LF plays significantly_

opener / bulk pattern

COL: Zach Agnos opens → bulk: Tanner Gordon· predicted bulk based on 2/23 prior short outings

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Zach AgnosRHP · opener · COL	Tanner GordonRHP · bulk · COL	Martín PérezLHP · ATL
xERA 2026	5.24	4.40	4.43
xwOBA 2026	0.349	0.323	0.324
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.005	0.051	-0.030
xERA 2025	6.52	5.88	5.37
xwOBA 2025	0.384	0.368	0.354
Outs/TB 25-26	1.66	1.35	2.32
FIP 25-26	4.82	4.85	4.25
kwERA 25-26	4.72	3.71	4.39
K% 25-26	14.8%	18.7%	18.4%
BB% 25-26	9.1%	4.6%	10.0%
IP 25+26 combined	107.3	159.0	171.3
ERA actual 2026	5.68	5.38	3.12
ERA (L4)	4.22	4.91	2.50
WHIP (L4)	1.41	1.45	1.44
K% (L4)	14.6%	17.5%	13.0%
BB% (L4)	12.5%	3.1%	11.7%
IP/gm (L4)	3.56	5.50	4.50
L4 window	05/21→06/12 (3 outs)	06/30→08/26 (4 st)	08/06→08/22 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	89 (−4)	83 (−4)	77 (−10)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	8.36 (+3.73)	4.24 (+0.19)	4.36 (−0.34)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.81	-0.99	0.50

away arsenal · BULK Tanner Gordon — COL

RV/100 -0.99

4-Seam Fastball—-0.70xwOBA 0.337
Slider—-1.60xwOBA 0.313
Changeup—+0.80xwOBA 0.295
Curveball—-5.30xwOBA 0.288

home arsenal — ATL

RV/100 0.50

Sinker—+0.80xwOBA 0.348
Changeup—+0.90xwOBA 0.280
Cutter—+0.00xwOBA 0.343
Curveball—+1.10xwOBA 0.325
4-Seam Fastball—-2.90xwOBA 0.372

away · COL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.726

Σ match

2.940

Σ FRV

-1.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Jake McCarthy	0.318	0.332	-0.8
2	CF	Cole Carrigg	0.321	0.352	+2.1
3	C	Hunter Goodman	0.331	0.369	-2.0
4	1B	TJ Rumfield	0.327	0.343	+5.8
5	2B	Connor Norby	0.296	0.332	+0.3
6	3B	Willi Castro	0.310	0.322	-3.4
7	RF	Mickey Moniak	0.286	0.296	-0.1
8	LF	Jordan Beck	0.257	0.278	-2.8
9	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	0.280	0.315	-0.5

home · ATL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.941

Σ match

2.940

Σ FRV

+11.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	C	Drake Baldwin	0.373	0.366	-0.7
2	RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0.362	0.332	-4.7
3	1B	Matt Olson	0.361	0.357	+6.3
4	SS	Mauricio Dubón	0.305	0.298	+4.9
5	CF	Michael Harris II	0.343	0.353	+10.3
6	2B	Ozzie Albies	0.287	0.297	-2.0
7	LF	Mike Yastrzemski	0.312	0.312	-1.5
8	3B	Austin Riley	0.299	0.298	-1.1
9	DH	Dominic Smith	0.299	0.327	-0.3

defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)

Hunter Goodman

FRV-2.0
framing-0.7
blocking-0.3
throwing-1.0

defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)

Drake Baldwin

FRV-0.7
framing+1.7
blocking+0.4
throwing-2.7

COL · Tanner Gordon

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs WSH · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	83
Location+	—	—	103
Pitching+	—	—	85
botOvr	—	—	50
SIERA	—	—	4.24

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-05 → 2026-08-26. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

ATL · Martín Pérez

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs MIL · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	77
Location+	—	—	102
Pitching+	—	—	85
botOvr	—	—	50
SIERA	—	—	4.36

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-22; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

COL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.42–0.53]

0.112 R/PA · 0.159 R/out · worst: Juan Mejia (4.57)

ATL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.35R / inningband [0.24–0.46]

0.082 R/PA · 0.116 R/out · worst: Ray Kerr (5.40)

COL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jordan Romano	CLOSER	CL	3.24	24.8	12.8	0.79	13/1/13	stable
Jaden Hill	SETUP	MR	3.88	22.8	12.5	0.83	2/12/4	stable
Juan Mejia	SETUP	MR	4.29	19.9	13.0	1.10	4/8/16	stable
Brennan Bernardino	OPENER	SU	3.46	18.2	6.2	0.86	1/11/7	stable
Jimmy Herget	OPENER	SU	5.26	20.1	12.0	0.99	3/8/10	stable
Zach Agnos	SWING	LR	4.50	15.2	7.8	2.28	2/0/10	stable
Mark Manfredi	unknown	MR	1.91	29.6	11.1	—	0/0/0	—
Nick Frasso	unknown	MR	2.07	20.5	4.5	—	0/0/0	—

ATL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Raisel Iglesias	CLOSER	CL	3.31	25.5	7.8	1.04	29/0/29	stable
Dylan Lee	SETUP	SU	2.04	32.0	6.6	0.97	0/30/1	stable
Didier Fuentes	SETUP	SU	2.43	31.0	7.4	1.20	2/15/4	ramping down
Dylan Dodd	SETUP	MR	3.28	26.3	7.8	1.18	1/13/4	ramping down
Brent Suter	OPENER	MR	3.69	19.7	6.7	1.54	0/3/13	stable
Victor Mederos	MR	LR	3.04	22.9	9.2	1.87	1/1/4	ramping up
Ray Kerr	unknown	MR	5.17	6.2	6.2	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 COL · 2 ATL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

COL

1 R

8H · 0HR · 3BB · 9K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.324 · SLGe 0.273 · K% 24.3

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 2 ER · 4 K · relief 5.3 IP · 6 arms

ATL

2 R

6H · 0HR · 4BB · 4K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.324 · SLGe 0.241 · K% 11.8

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 9 K · relief 3.3 IP · 3 arms

COL · standout lines

tough nights

Mickey Moniak (RF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

ATL · standout lines

tough nights

Mike Yastrzemski (LF) · 0-40-for-4