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today's slate

CIN @ CHC

Saturday · August 29, 2026·full·gamePk 824637free Saturday

refreshed 673h 10m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Wrigley Field

gametime 2:20 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

83°F

humidity 45%

wind

8 mph

out to CF

precip

overcast

park

CHC

open · HP→CF 36°

wind impact on total

+0.32 R/Gmoderate out

Moderate wind out: +0.32 R/G vs neutral. _THE wind park — Lake Michigan lake-effect dominates. Wind OUT (south) → HR feast. Wind IN (north off lake) → pitcher's paradise. April/Oct often wind-in cold, June/July often wind-out warm._

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Andrew AbbottLHP · CIN	Kevin GausmanRHP · CHC
xERA 2026	4.68	3.86
xwOBA 2026	0.332	0.304
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.013	0.005
xERA 2025	3.56	3.74
xwOBA 2025	0.294	0.301
Outs/TB 25-26	2.06	2.12
FIP 25-26	4.06	3.44
kwERA 25-26	4.00	3.29
K% 25-26	20.1%	24.0%
BB% 25-26	8.4%	6.5%
IP 25+26 combined	311.7	343.3
ERA actual 2026	4.15	4.37
ERA (L4)	4.50	2.25
WHIP (L4)	1.33	1.17
K% (L4)	16.7%	19.8%
BB% (L4)	10.8%	5.2%
IP/gm (L4)	6.00	6.00
L4 window	08/01→08/23 (4 st)	08/01→08/24 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	92 (−3)	94 (−4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	6.33 (+1.36)	3.62 (−0.18)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.11	0.18

away arsenal — CIN

RV/100 -0.11

4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.401
Sweeper—+0.20xwOBA 0.232
Changeup—+0.40xwOBA 0.278
Curveball—-0.30xwOBA 0.290
Cutter—-0.40xwOBA 0.423

home arsenal — CHC

RV/100 0.18

4-Seam Fastball—+0.70xwOBA 0.342
Split-Finger—+0.30xwOBA 0.230
Slider—-3.10xwOBA 0.434

away · CIN vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.759

Σ match

2.775

Σ FRV

-4.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Héctor Rodríguez	0.308	0.295	-0.4
2	SS	Elly De La Cruz	0.360	0.374	+4.9
3	1B	Sal Stewart	0.348	0.345	-2.8
4	LF	JJ Bleday	0.353	0.350	-0.8
5	DH	Tyler Stephenson	0.338	0.326	-7.0
6	3B	Eugenio Suárez	0.280	0.300	-5.5
7	C	Jose Trevino	0.219	0.239	+1.8
8	CF	TJ Friedl	0.240	0.235	+3.2
9	2B	Matt McLain	0.313	0.309	+1.9

home · CHC vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.891

Σ match

2.997

Σ FRV

+52.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0.358	0.355	+24.4
2	DH	Seiya Suzuki	0.334	0.364	+7.2
3	3B	Alex Bregman	0.314	0.322	+5.8
4	1B	Michael Busch	0.334	0.335	+2.3
5	SS	Nico Hoerner	0.323	0.333	+8.4
6	RF	Matt Shaw	0.300	0.326	+1.1
7	LF	Tyrone Taylor	0.310	0.315	+1.1
8	2B	Pedro Ramírez	0.305	0.315	+0.9
9	C	Carson Kelly	0.313	0.334	+1.2

defense · CIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Jose Trevino

FRV+1.8
framing+1.3
blocking+0.8
throwing-0.3

defense · CHC catcher (Savant FRV)

Carson Kelly

FRV+1.2
framing+2.4
blocking+1.3
throwing-2.5

CIN · Andrew Abbott

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs AZ · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	92
Location+	—	—	92
Pitching+	—	—	86
botOvr	—	—	47
SIERA	—	—	6.33

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-06 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CHC · Kevin Gausman

Last outing 2026-08-24 vs AZ · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	94
Location+	—	—	104
Pitching+	—	—	101
botOvr	—	—	56
SIERA	—	—	3.62

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-07 → 2026-08-24. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-24; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.40–0.49]

0.105 R/PA · 0.148 R/out · worst: Tony Santillan (4.43)

CHC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.37–0.51]

0.103 R/PA · 0.146 R/out · worst: Trent Thornton (4.77)

CIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Emilio Pagán	CLOSER	CL	4.19	25.4	6.7	0.91	18/0/15	stable
Brock Burke	SETUP	MR	4.03	23.6	13.8	0.95	2/15/10	stable
Pierce Johnson	SETUP	MR	4.51	20.7	9.1	0.88	1/7/8	stable
Tony Santillan	SETUP	SU	6.53	20.3	12.2	0.91	5/11/11	stable
Luis Mey	MR	SU	3.71	33.0	15.0	1.24	0/3/0	ramping down
Tejay Antone	MR	MR	4.22	21.7	6.9	1.00	1/8/6	stable
Julian Garcia	MR	LR	4.76	24.2	10.2	1.62	2/3/2	stable
Sam Moll	MOP_UP	MR	4.25	21.3	12.0	0.88	1/7/5	stable

CHC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Daniel Palencia	CLOSER	SU	3.85	28.6	8.3	0.88	3/0/12	stable
Jacob Webb	SETUP	CL	3.74	26.0	8.5	0.98	9/8/14	stable
Ryan Zeferjahn	SETUP	MR	4.11	31.2	13.7	1.15	4/12/15	stable
Caleb Thielbar	SETUP	MR	5.02	27.7	8.1	0.85	3/7/6	stable
Ryan Rolison	OPENER	MR	3.82	23.5	11.3	1.12	1/7/13	stable
Trent Thornton	MR	SU	4.90	14.5	9.3	1.11	3/5/9	ramping down
Aaron Civale	SP	MR	4.74	18.0	6.5	4.67	1/0/0	ramping down
Colin Rea	SP	LR	4.91	17.1	8.2	5.03	1/0/1	ramping up

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 CIN · 17 CHC

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CIN

5 R

7H · 2HR · 4BB · 11K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.289 · SLGe 0.424 · K% 28.9

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 17 ER · 4 K · relief 5.0 IP · 6 arms

CHC

17 R

19H · 6HR · 5BB · 4K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.510 · SLGe 0.930 · K% 8.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 11 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms

CIN · standout lines

big nights

Sal Stewart (1B) · 2-4 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR
Eugenio Suárez (3B) · 1-2 | HR, BB, KHR

tough nights

Héctor Rodríguez (RF) · 0-4 | BB, K0-for-4
Jose Trevino (P) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Matt McLain (SS) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

CHC · standout lines

big nights

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF) · 4-6 | 3 HR, 6 RBI, 4 R3-HR night · 4 H · 13 TB · 6 RBI
Seiya Suzuki (DH) · 3-5 | HR, BB, KHR · 3 H
Alex Bregman (3B) · 3-5 | HR, 2B, HBPHR · 3 H · 7 TB
Tyrone Taylor (CF) · 4-5 | 2B, 3 R4 H · 5 TB

tough nights

Michael Busch (1B) · 0-60-for-6