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today's slate

KC @ CLE

Saturday · August 29, 2026·full·gamePk 824392free Saturday

refreshed 672h 21m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Progressive Field

gametime 4:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

82°F

humidity 42%

wind

8 mph

in from RF

precip

overcast

park

CLE

open · HP→CF 25°

wind impact on total

-0.19 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.19 R/G vs neutral. _Lake Erie wind in from LF in spring/fall — kills LH HR; summer flattens_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Daniel Lynch IVLHP · KC	Foster GriffinLHP · CLE
xERA 2026	3.94	4.22
xwOBA 2026	0.307	0.317
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.046	-0.015
xERA 2025	4.51	—
xwOBA 2025	0.328	—
Outs/TB 25-26	2.24	2.00
FIP 25-26	4.16	4.19
kwERA 25-26	4.36	3.49
K% 25-26	16.8%	22.1%
BB% 25-26	8.2%	6.2%
IP 25+26 combined	126.0	149.3
ERA actual 2026	2.93	3.19
ERA (L4)	5.91	4.05
WHIP (L4)	1.41	1.45
K% (L4)	11.1%	21.8%
BB% (L4)	11.1%	9.2%
IP/gm (L4)	2.67	5.00
L4 window	07/28→08/23 (4 outs)	08/06→08/23 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	102 (−5)	97 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.98 (−0.14)	4.30 (+0.44)
Arsenal RV/100	1.49	0.22

away arsenal — KC

RV/100 1.49

Sinker—+2.30xwOBA 0.315
Changeup—+2.30xwOBA 0.264
Slider—+3.00xwOBA 0.241
4-Seam Fastball—-4.00xwOBA 0.472
Curveball—+2.40xwOBA 0.400

home arsenal — CLE

RV/100 0.22

Cutter—+1.50xwOBA 0.329
4-Seam Fastball—-0.60xwOBA 0.331
Sweeper—-0.20xwOBA 0.334
Changeup—+0.90xwOBA 0.268
Sinker—+1.00xwOBA 0.348
Curveball—-3.30xwOBA 0.356
Split-Finger—-0.30xwOBA 0.204

away · KC vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.414

Σ match

2.788

Σ FRV

+3.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Carter Jensen	0.292	0.313	+1.8
2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0.382	0.392	+18.1
3	RF	Jac Caglianone	0.363	0.350	-6.1
4	1B	Salvador Perez	0.300	0.307	-9.4
5	3B	Nick Loftin	0.299	0.313	-1.8
6	CF	Tyler Tolbert	0.299	0.299	-1.2
7	2B	Isaac Collins	0.300	0.308	+0.8
8	LF	Matthew Lugo	0.004	0.249	—
9	C	Luke Maile	0.175	0.258	+1.6

home · CLE vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.775

Σ match

2.822

Σ FRV

+13.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Steven Kwan	0.323	0.332	+7.3
2	DH	Chase DeLauter	0.343	0.350	+0.7
3	3B	José Ramírez	0.344	0.348	+2.0
4	RF	Jo Adell	0.328	0.327	-7.4
5	LF	Angel Martínez	0.303	0.299	+2.6
6	1B	David Fry	0.256	0.260	-2.6
7	2B	Angel Genao	0.302	0.310	+0.9
8	C	Austin Hedges	0.283	0.300	-1.4
9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	0.293	0.296	+11.4

defense · KC catcher (Savant FRV)

Luke Maile

FRV+1.6
framing+1.5
blocking+0.4
throwing-0.3

defense · CLE catcher (Savant FRV)

Austin Hedges

FRV-1.4
framing+2.1
blocking-1.2
throwing-2.2

KC · Daniel Lynch IV

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs DET · 4.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	102
Location+	—	—	96
Pitching+	—	—	99
botOvr	—	—	50
SIERA	—	—	3.98

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-07 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CLE · Foster Griffin

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs COL · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	97
Location+	—	—	108
Pitching+	—	—	104
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	4.30

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

KC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.43–0.54]

0.114 R/PA · 0.161 R/out · worst: Anthony Gose (5.40)

CLE · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.34–0.45]

0.092 R/PA · 0.131 R/out · worst: Tim Herrin (4.25)

KC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Alex Lange	CLOSER	MR	4.39	23.1	11.8	1.03	10/3/20	stable
John Schreiber	SETUP	SU	4.90	18.0	11.0	0.91	1/14/5	stable
Connor Thomas	BULK	MR	9.07	12.7	10.9	3.67	0/2/0	insufficient data
Steven Cruz	OPENER	CL	5.20	25.8	8.8	1.06	6/5/7	stable
Jose Cuas	MR	LR	2.79	22.6	12.9	1.27	0/3/4	ramping down
Craig Kimbrel	MR	MR	4.15	21.9	11.2	1.03	1/1/15	stable
Anthony Gose	unknown	MR	3.07	0.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Nate Pearson	unknown	MR	3.76	20.0	12.9	—	3/4/0	—

CLE

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Cade Smith	CLOSER	CL	2.51	34.0	8.1	1.05	35/0/37	stable
Erik Sabrowski	SETUP	SU	2.74	39.2	15.1	0.78	1/23/2	stable
Colin Holderman	SETUP	MR	3.07	23.6	9.0	0.99	1/11/8	ramping down
Matt Festa	SETUP	MR	3.43	25.4	6.6	0.97	1/7/13	stable
Hunter Gaddis	SETUP	SU	3.96	22.1	9.5	0.86	1/27/2	stable
Tim Herrin	SETUP	MR	4.46	21.7	12.1	0.79	0/15/5	stable
Logan Allen	BULK	LR	4.53	22.4	6.9	3.67	0/0/1	insufficient data
Craig Yoho	MR	MR	5.15	24.2	10.6	1.33	0/1/5	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

8 KC · 3 CLE

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

KC

8 R

12H · 1HR · 2BB · 6K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.342 · SLGe 0.487 · K% 14.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 5 K · relief 5.7 IP · 6 arms

CLE

3 R

5H · 1HR · 2BB · 5K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.206 · SLGe 0.313 · K% 14.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 7 ER · 6 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

KC · standout lines

big nights

Salvador Perez (1B) · 2-5 | 2 2B, K, RBI4 TB
Josh Rojas (3B) · 2-2 | HR, 4 RBI, RHR · 4 RBI

tough nights

Carter Jensen (DH) · 0-4 | BB, K0-for-4
Luke Maile (C) · 0-40-for-4

CLE · standout lines

big nights

Angel Martínez (LF) · 2-4 | HR, K, 3 RBIHR

tough nights

Chase DeLauter (DH) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Angel Genao (2B) · 0-40-for-4