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today's slate

LAD @ DET

Saturday · August 29, 2026·full·gamePk 824230free Saturday

refreshed 677h 1m ago· lineups expected / expected may be stale — sweep job runs every 15m

weather · Comerica Park

gametime 1:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

80°F

humidity 40%

wind

11 mph

in from LF

precip

overcast

park

DET

open · HP→CF 150°

wind impact on total

-0.24 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.24 R/G vs neutral. _Comerica's huge CF + upper-deck overhang creates dead-air zone in deep CF_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Blake SnellLHP · LAD	Keider MonteroRHP · DET
xERA 2026	2.29	3.49
xwOBA 2026	0.236	0.290
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.018	-0.025
xERA 2025	3.28	4.67
xwOBA 2025	0.283	0.333
Outs/TB 25-26	3.11	2.10
FIP 25-26	2.52	4.31
kwERA 25-26	3.18	4.10
K% 25-26	28.7%	17.4%
BB% 25-26	10.3%	6.6%
IP 25+26 combined	82.3	224.3
ERA actual 2026	2.57	3.30
ERA (L4)	1.00	5.06
WHIP (L4)	0.78	1.27
K% (L4)	30.4%	11.8%
BB% (L4)	10.1%	7.5%
IP/gm (L4)	6.00	5.33
L4 window	08/11→08/23 (3 st)	07/27→08/18 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	114 (−5)	89 (−6)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.12 (+0.72)	6.19 (+1.69)
Arsenal RV/100	1.77	1.11

away arsenal — LAD

RV/100 1.77

4-Seam Fastball—+2.20xwOBA 0.255
Curveball—+2.10xwOBA 0.143
Changeup—+2.10xwOBA 0.316
Slider—-0.90xwOBA 0.240

home arsenal — DET

RV/100 1.11

4-Seam Fastball—+1.80xwOBA 0.310
Sinker—+1.10xwOBA 0.311
Slider—+1.90xwOBA 0.238
Changeup—+1.80xwOBA 0.222
Curveball—-2.20xwOBA 0.347

away · LAD vs RHP

projected

Σ xwOBA

3.010

Σ match

2.812

Σ FRV

+6.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Shohei Ohtani	0.404	0.377	—
2	1B	Freddie Freeman	0.372	0.341	+3.8
3	SS	Mookie Betts	0.326	0.303	+7.7
4	3B	Max Muncy	0.350	0.338	+3.5
5	2B	Tommy Edman	0.315	0.288	+2.0
6	RF	Kyle Tucker	0.325	0.309	-7.5
7	LF	Teoscar Hernández	0.311	0.303	-4.2
8	CF	Alek Thomas	0.284	0.267	+1.6
9	C	Hunter Feduccia	0.323	0.287	-0.2

home · DET vs LHP

projected

Σ xwOBA

2.859

Σ match

2.272

Σ FRV

+0.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Gleyber Torres	0.328	0.243	+1.8
2	SS	Kevin McGonigle	0.353	0.273	-0.0
3	C	Dillon Dingler	0.350	0.276	+11.9
4	DH	Eduardo Valencia	0.321	0.249	+0.1
5	3B	Hao-Yu Lee	0.304	0.244	-6.7
6	1B	Spencer Torkelson	0.309	0.247	-7.1
7	RF	Ben Malgeri	0.315	0.266	+0.4
8	CF	Max Clark	0.310	0.242	+2.8
9	LF	Javier Báez	0.269	0.232	-2.5

defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)

Hunter Feduccia

FRV-0.2
framing+3.0
blocking-1.2
throwing-2.0

defense · DET catcher (Savant FRV)

Dillon Dingler

FRV+11.9
framing+7.2
blocking+2.3
throwing+2.4

LAD · Blake Snell

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs PIT · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	114
Location+	—	—	102
Pitching+	—	—	111
botOvr	—	—	56
SIERA	—	—	4.12

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

DET · Keider Montero

Last outing 2026-08-18 vs PIT · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	89
Location+	—	—	96
Pitching+	—	—	88
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	6.19

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-18. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-18; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

LAD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.29–0.47]

0.089 R/PA · 0.126 R/out · worst: Seth Halvorsen (5.28)

DET · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.34–0.57]

0.107 R/PA · 0.151 R/out · worst: Tanner Rainey (5.40)

LAD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Tanner Scott	CLOSER	CL	2.29	31.5	5.6	0.94	20/12/21	stable
Edgardo Henriquez	SETUP	SU	2.58	28.7	10.6	1.05	1/9/5	stable
Alex Vesia	SETUP	MR	3.38	29.8	15.7	0.76	3/18/6	stable
Kyle Hurt	SETUP	LR	3.81	28.9	12.2	1.01	1/9/10	stable
Jack Dreyer	MR	MR	3.37	30.8	8.4	1.01	1/10/9	stable
Brock Stewart	MR	MR	3.81	25.0	11.1	1.06	1/7/2	stable
Evan Phillips	MR	SU	4.49	28.0	6.7	1.00	0/5/3	stable
Seth Halvorsen	MOP_UP	MR	5.73	17.0	16.0	0.90	0/2/4	stable

DET

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kenley Jansen	CLOSER	CL	5.03	27.9	13.6	0.89	17/1/22	stable
Kyle Finnegan	SETUP	SU	5.30	17.4	13.6	1.05	2/14/3	stable
Tyler Kinley	SETUP	MR	5.43	22.5	11.8	0.87	1/11/9	stable
Tyler Holton	OPENER	SU	4.10	18.9	5.7	1.06	2/14/8	stable
Drew Sommers	MR	MR	2.14	38.0	9.9	0.63	0/10/1	stable
Jacob Waguespack	MR	MR	5.15	14.6	8.9	1.30	0/4/4	stable
Tanner Rainey	unknown	MR	3.98	24.0	24.0	—	0/0/0	—
Andrew Sears	unknown	LR	5.58	16.7	5.6	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 LAD · 2 DET

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

LAD

1 R

6H · 0HR · 2BB · 4K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.235 · SLGe 0.250 · K% 11.8

Their pitching

8.3 IP · 2 ER · 11 K · relief 3.3 IP · 5 arms

DET

2 R

6H · 0HR · 5BB · 11K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.333 · SLGe 0.300 · K% 28.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 4 K · relief 3.7 IP · 4 arms

LAD · standout lines

tough nights

Teoscar Hernández (LF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

DET · standout lines

tough nights

Eduardo Valencia (C) · 0-4 | K0-for-4