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today's slate

PHI @ LAA

Saturday · August 29, 2026·full·gamePk 823986free Saturday

refreshed 667h 25m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Angel Stadium

gametime 10:07 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

81°F

humidity 57%

wind

6 mph

out to CF

precip

clear

park

LAA

open · HP→CF 58°

wind impact on total

+0.18 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.18 R/G vs neutral. _Marine layer in spring suppresses HR; summer warmth flattens; light wind generally_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Cristopher SánchezLHP · PHI	Ryan JohnsonRHP · LAA
xERA 2026	3.34	5.42
xwOBA 2026	0.284	0.354
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.010	-0.004
xERA 2025	3.02	3.53
xwOBA 2025	0.272	0.293
Outs/TB 25-26	2.33	1.61
FIP 25-26	2.58	6.11
kwERA 25-26	2.82	4.44
K% 25-26	26.9%	17.9%
BB% 25-26	5.4%	9.9%
IP 25+26 combined	370.3	82.0
ERA actual 2026	2.62	5.75
ERA (L4)	2.66	1.69
WHIP (L4)	1.35	1.08
K% (L4)	26.5%	15.5%
BB% (L4)	5.1%	13.1%
IP/gm (L4)	5.92	5.33
L4 window	08/06→08/23 (4 st)	08/06→08/22 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	107 (−11)	100 (+9)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.73 (+0.90)	6.21 (+1.04)
Arsenal RV/100	0.65	-0.90

away arsenal — PHI

RV/100 0.65

Sinker—-0.10xwOBA 0.366
Changeup—+1.40xwOBA 0.197
Slider—+0.90xwOBA 0.267

home arsenal — LAA

RV/100 -0.90

Cutter—+1.10xwOBA 0.323
Split-Finger—+0.50xwOBA 0.237
Sinker—-4.50xwOBA 0.513
Sweeper—-2.00xwOBA 0.315

away · PHI vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.927

Σ match

3.195

Σ FRV

-15.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Kyle Schwarber	0.368	0.414	-0.8
2	SS	Trea Turner	0.292	0.320	-8.6
3	RF	Bryce Harper	0.393	0.408	-9.5
4	2B	Luis Arraez	0.309	0.357	+9.8
5	1B	Alec Bohm	0.320	0.350	-7.4
6	3B	Bryson Stott	0.329	0.356	+5.5
7	LF	Brandon Marsh	0.309	0.329	-5.3
8	C	J.T. Realmuto	0.321	0.358	+1.8
9	CF	Justin Crawford	0.286	0.302	-0.8

home · LAA vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.675

Σ match

2.424

Σ FRV

-10.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Zach Neto	0.306	0.296	-2.7
2	CF	Mike Trout	0.381	0.354	-2.4
3	1B	Vaughn Grissom	0.310	0.276	-3.5
4	LF	Jose Siri	0.312	0.254	+0.7
5	2B	Christian Moore	0.257	0.274	-1.9
6	DH	Oswald Peraza	0.271	0.237	+0.1
7	3B	Denzer Guzman	0.267	0.238	+0.4
8	C	Travis d'Arnaud	0.265	0.234	-2.3
9	RF	Wade Meckler	0.306	0.261	+1.5

defense · PHI catcher (Savant FRV)

J.T. Realmuto

FRV+1.8
framing+0.6
blocking-1.3
throwing+2.5

defense · LAA catcher (Savant FRV)

Travis d'Arnaud

FRV-2.3
framing-2.6
blocking+0.3
throwing-0.0

PHI · Cristopher Sánchez

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs STL · 6.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	107
Location+	—	—	83
Pitching+	—	—	94
botOvr	—	—	46
SIERA	—	—	3.73

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

LAA · Ryan Johnson

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs TEX · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	84
Pitching+	—	—	85
botOvr	—	—	49
SIERA	—	—	6.21

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-22; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

PHI · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.37R / inningband [0.32–0.42]

0.087 R/PA · 0.123 R/out · worst: Alex McFarlane (3.95)

LAA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.31–0.52]

0.097 R/PA · 0.137 R/out · worst: Luke Murphy (4.85)

PHI

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jhoan Duran	CLOSER	CL	1.22	35.4	4.2	0.94	28/0/35	stable
Jonathan Bowlan	SETUP	SU	2.73	30.6	7.1	0.93	2/11/2	stable
Brooks Raley	SETUP	MR	3.34	24.1	8.0	0.89	1/15/5	stable
Orion Kerkering	SETUP	SU	3.62	24.0	11.8	0.94	1/16/5	stable
José Alvarado	SETUP	MR	3.85	26.6	9.9	0.85	1/11/3	stable
Tim Mayza	OPENER	MR	3.21	24.9	6.3	1.15	0/1/9	stable
Chase Shugart	MR	LR	5.12	28.2	9.6	1.13	0/0/10	stable
Alex McFarlane	unknown	MR	2.60	24.2	12.1	—	0/0/0	—

LAA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Tayler Saucedo	MR	MR	2.52	30.8	5.8	0.56	0/5/0	stable
José Fermin	MR	SU	3.95	27.6	10.1	1.11	1/7/7	stable
Ryan Watson	MR	SU	4.19	19.6	8.0	1.61	2/4/21	stable
Trevor Martin	MR	MR	8.02	13.0	7.4	1.89	0/0/2	ramping up
Ben Joyce	unknown	CL	2.36	36.4	15.2	—	3/2/0	—
Luke Murphy	unknown	MR	3.69	22.7	18.2	—	0/4/0	—
Sammy Peralta	unknown	LR	5.88	28.6	6.1	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

4 PHI · 2 LAA

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

PHI

4 R

7H · 0HR · 7BB · 6K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.350 · SLGe 0.242 · K% 15.0

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 1 ER · 10 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

LAA

2 R

4H · 1HR · 2BB · 10K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.184 · SLGe 0.212 · K% 26.3

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 3 ER · 6 K · relief 5.0 IP · 4 arms

PHI · standout lines

tough nights

Luis Arraez (2B) · 0-50-for-5
Bryson Stott (3B) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
J.T. Realmuto (C) · 0-4 | K, R0-for-4

LAA · standout lines

big nights

Zach Neto (SS) · 1-5 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR

tough nights

Mike Trout (CF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Christian Moore (2B) · 0-40-for-4
Oswald Peraza (DH) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K