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today's slate

TEX @ MIL

Saturday · August 29, 2026·full·gamePk 823741free Saturday

refreshed 669h 27m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · American Family Field

gametime 7:15 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

75°F

humidity 71%

wind

5 mph

in from LF

precip

19%

clear

park

MIL

retractable · HP→CF 137°

wind impact on total

neutralnone in

In wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Cal QuantrillRHP · TEX	Shane DrohanLHP · MIL
xERA 2026	3.88	3.59
xwOBA 2026	0.305	0.294
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.020	0.015
xERA 2025	5.81	—
xwOBA 2025	0.366	—
Outs/TB 25-26	1.78	2.04
FIP 25-26	4.66	3.32
kwERA 25-26	4.17	3.56
K% 25-26	16.9%	23.4%
BB% 25-26	6.6%	8.1%
IP 25+26 combined	201.3	105.3
ERA actual 2026	2.90	3.84
ERA (L4)	0.75	6.14
WHIP (L4)	0.92	1.68
K% (L4)	22.1%	22.9%
BB% (L4)	4.2%	10.4%
IP/gm (L4)	6.00	5.50
L4 window	08/03→08/23 (4 st)	07/24→08/23 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	88 (−2)	98 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.56 (+0.16)	4.84 (+0.96)
Arsenal RV/100	0.66	0.20

away arsenal — TEX

RV/100 0.66

Sinker—+2.90xwOBA 0.259
Split-Finger—-0.60xwOBA 0.280
Cutter—-0.90xwOBA 0.403
4-Seam Fastball—+0.70xwOBA 0.319
Curveball—+1.80xwOBA 0.246

home arsenal — MIL

RV/100 0.20

4-Seam Fastball—+1.60xwOBA 0.222
Slider—+1.90xwOBA 0.208
Sinker—-2.50xwOBA 0.399
Curveball—-1.00xwOBA 0.326
Cutter—+1.10xwOBA 0.374
Changeup—-3.20xwOBA 0.390

away · TEX vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.698

Σ match

2.638

Σ FRV

+1.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Justin Foscue	0.327	0.317	+1.8
2	SS	Corey Seager	0.343	0.321	+0.6
3	LF	Wyatt Langford	0.317	0.310	+3.3
4	RF	Brandon Nimmo	0.354	0.340	-4.3
5	CF	Ezequiel Duran	0.301	0.287	+11.9
6	1B	Jake Burger	0.314	0.305	+3.9
7	C	Danny Jansen	0.256	0.253	-3.2
8	DH	Logan O'Hoppe	0.264	0.253	-14.1
9	3B	Cody Freeman	0.222	0.250	+1.1

home · MIL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.949

Σ match

3.006

Σ FRV

+5.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Brice Turang	0.339	0.344	+11.3
2	LF	Jackson Chourio	0.340	0.349	+3.9
3	1B	Jake Bauers	0.374	0.369	-8.6
4	C	William Contreras	0.333	0.348	-2.8
5	CF	Garrett Mitchell	0.348	0.364	+3.6
6	DH	Christian Yelich	0.313	0.329	+0.0
7	RF	Luis Lara	0.319	0.314	+1.0
8	SS	Cooper Pratt	0.306	0.308	+2.6
9	3B	David Hamilton	0.277	0.282	-5.7

defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)

Danny Jansen

FRV-3.2
framing-4.4
blocking+1.6
throwing-0.4

defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)

William Contreras

FRV-2.8
framing-4.4
blocking-1.4
throwing+3.1

TEX · Cal Quantrill

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs LAA · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	88
Location+	—	—	107
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	57
SIERA	—	—	4.56

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

MIL · Shane Drohan

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs ATL · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	98
Location+	—	—	99
Pitching+	—	—	98
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	4.84

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-31 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TEX · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.38–0.43]

0.096 R/PA · 0.136 R/out · worst: Adam Macko (3.94)

MIL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.36–0.45]

0.095 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Grant Anderson (3.97)

TEX

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jacob Latz	CLOSER	CL	2.45	29.7	8.2	1.28	26/2/26	stable
Jakob Junis	SETUP	SU	3.28	18.2	5.0	1.12	5/16/9	stable
Chase Silseth	SETUP	SU	3.96	26.0	13.7	0.85	0/13/7	stable
Cole Winn	SETUP	MR	3.99	22.8	7.4	0.93	1/9/5	stable
Peyton Gray	SETUP	MR	4.18	24.1	6.8	1.23	0/8/5	ramping down
Tyler Alexander	OPENER	MR	2.79	20.6	6.9	0.95	4/11/11	stable
Adam Macko	MR	MR	4.49	22.4	10.3	1.04	0/4/2	stable
Jordan Montgomery	unknown	LR	4.07	19.1	2.1	—	0/0/0	—

MIL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Trevor Megill	CLOSER	CL	1.73	28.5	7.0	0.97	24/7/21	stable
Aaron Ashby	SETUP	SU	2.90	31.8	11.3	1.23	2/13/5	stable
Grant Anderson	SETUP	MR	4.29	21.9	10.0	1.11	0/5/8	stable
Bryse Wilson	BULK	LR	2.92	20.7	1.5	2.73	0/0/3	ramping down
Chad Patrick	SWING	SU	3.76	21.5	9.2	2.46	5/9/5	ramping down
Antonio Senzatela	MR	MR	3.49	20.5	8.0	1.61	3/8/11	ramping down
DL Hall	MR	MR	3.65	28.4	15.9	1.29	0/5/5	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 TEX · 5 MIL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

TEX

3 R

8H · 2HR · 2BB · 7K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.324 · SLGe 0.424 · K% 18.9

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 4 ER · 11 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

MIL

5 R

7H · 2HR · 3BB · 11K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.294 · SLGe 0.467 · K% 32.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 7 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms

TEX · standout lines

big nights

Brandon Nimmo (RF) · 3-4 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR · 3 H
Cody Freeman (3B) · 1-3 | HR, HBP, RBIHR

tough nights

Danny Jansen (C) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

MIL · standout lines

big nights

Jackson Chourio (LF) · 1-4 | HR, K, RBIHR
William Contreras (C) · 2-3 | HR, BB, KHR

tough nights

Brice Turang (2B) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Jake Bauers (1B) · 0-3 | BB, 3 K0-for-3 · 3 K
Garrett Mitchell (CF) · 0-4 | K, R0-for-4