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today's slate

CWS @ MIN

Saturday · August 29, 2026·full·gamePk 823665free Saturday

refreshed 672h 49m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Target Field

gametime 2:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

74°F

humidity 82%

wind

10 mph

cross LF to RF

precip

overcast

park

MIN

open · HP→CF 73°

wind impact on total

-0.01 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Erick FeddeRHP · CWS	Bailey OberRHP · MIN
xERA 2026	4.68	4.74
xwOBA 2026	0.332	0.334
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.005	-0.011
xERA 2025	5.41	4.36
xwOBA 2025	0.355	0.323
Outs/TB 25-26	1.74	1.63
FIP 25-26	5.21	4.82
kwERA 25-26	4.79	3.91
K% 25-26	14.7%	17.9%
BB% 25-26	9.7%	5.6%
IP 25+26 combined	259.3	254.7
ERA actual 2026	4.18	4.49
ERA (L4)	4.42	4.64
WHIP (L4)	1.20	1.36
K% (L4)	22.7%	12.1%
BB% (L4)	5.3%	5.5%
IP/gm (L4)	4.58	5.33
L4 window	06/30→07/31 (4 st)	08/06→08/23 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	86 (−4)	87 (−5)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.26 (−1.42)	5.03 (+0.19)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.47	-0.04

away arsenal — CWS

RV/100 -0.47

Sweeper—+0.80xwOBA 0.293
Sinker—-0.50xwOBA 0.362
Cutter—-1.50xwOBA 0.391
Changeup—-2.60xwOBA 0.297

home arsenal — MIN

RV/100 -0.04

Changeup—-1.30xwOBA 0.364
4-Seam Fastball—+0.00xwOBA 0.342
Slider—+0.80xwOBA 0.303
Sweeper—+3.10xwOBA 0.174
Sinker—-4.20xwOBA 0.578

away · CWS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.918

Σ match

3.005

Σ FRV

+9.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Sam Antonacci	0.342	0.337	-7.9
2	1B	Munetaka Murakami	0.363	0.380	-1.7
3	3B	Miguel Vargas	0.391	0.416	-4.2
4	DH	Andrew Benintendi	0.311	0.327	-1.6
5	RF	Braden Montgomery	0.322	0.343	+1.2
6	SS	Colson Montgomery	0.302	0.296	+7.3
7	2B	Chase Meidroth	0.293	0.299	+8.9
8	CF	Tristan Peters	0.314	0.327	+9.5
9	C	Jake Rogers	0.280	0.280	-2.4

home · MIN vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

3.034

Σ match

3.191

Σ FRV

-21.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Luke Keaschall	0.314	0.339	-11.0
2	3B	Brooks Lee	0.274	0.321	-3.6
3	2B	Kody Clemens	0.333	0.351	-2.4
4	DH	Josh Bell	0.328	0.334	-0.9
5	1B	Royce Lewis	0.315	0.378	-2.4
6	LF	Trevor Larnach	0.332	0.373	-1.2
7	SS	Kaelen Culpepper	0.332	0.341	-0.4
8	C	Victor Caratini	0.320	0.351	+0.6
9	CF	Walker Jenkins	0.486	0.403	+0.0

defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)

Jake Rogers

FRV-2.4
framing-1.9
blocking-1.3
throwing+0.9

defense · MIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Victor Caratini

FRV+0.6
framing+2.7
blocking+0.7
throwing-3.6

CWS · Erick Fedde

Last outing 2026-08-06 vs BOS · 0.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	86
Location+	—	—	113
Pitching+	—	—	103
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	3.26

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-20 → 2026-07-31. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

MIN · Bailey Ober

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs SD · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	87
Location+	—	—	107
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	5.03

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CWS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.35–0.52]

0.102 R/PA · 0.144 R/out · worst: Tyler Gilbert (5.95)

MIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.48]

0.095 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Kody Funderburk (4.62)

CWS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Sean Newcomb	SETUP	SU	2.93	22.5	8.9	1.51	4/10/6	ramping up
Grant Taylor	OPENER	CL	2.27	32.6	8.5	1.33	8/10/11	stable
Bryan Hudson	OPENER	CL	3.24	22.5	7.2	0.98	6/8/8	stable
Jordan Hicks	MR	MR	3.55	27.4	14.0	0.91	1/8/6	stable
José Urquidy	MR	MR	3.71	20.7	6.5	1.27	1/0/4	ramping down
Tyler Davis	MR	MR	4.10	20.8	14.2	1.10	1/0/6	stable
Trevor Richards	MR	MR	4.28	21.9	7.9	1.46	1/1/16	stable
Tyler Gilbert	MR	LR	11.80	13.6	18.2	0.92	0/0/0	ramping down
Hagen Smith	unknown	MR	4.08	34.8	21.7	—	0/1/0	—

MIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yoendrys Gómez	CLOSER	CL	4.58	20.8	12.0	1.12	20/6/26	ramping down
Jeff Hoffman	SETUP	SU	2.59	33.9	9.8	0.94	5/16/16	stable
Taylor Rogers	SETUP	MR	4.07	18.8	10.7	0.82	2/9/10	stable
Kody Funderburk	SETUP	MR	4.12	19.5	13.0	0.94	1/10/1	stable
Andrew Morris	OPENER	MR	3.03	21.3	8.2	1.31	4/20/6	ramping down
Tommy Nance	MR	MR	3.41	25.7	9.2	1.04	0/6/4	stable
A.J. Minter	MR	SU	3.79	21.2	3.0	1.00	0/6/8	stable
Travis Adams	MR	LR	4.23	25.9	10.4	1.46	2/1/6	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 CWS · 2 MIN

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CWS

3 R

3H · 1HR · 6BB · 10K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.243 · SLGe 0.226 · K% 27.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 7 K · relief 4.0 IP · 3 arms

MIN

2 R

5H · 0HR · 2BB · 7K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.206 · SLGe 0.226 · K% 20.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 10 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms

CWS · standout lines

big nights

Andrew Benintendi (DH) · 3-4 | HR, 2B, KHR · 3 H · 7 TB

tough nights

Braden Montgomery (RF) · 0-40-for-4
Chase Meidroth (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Jake Rogers (C) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

MIN · standout lines

tough nights

Brooks Lee (3B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Kaelen Culpepper (SS) · 0-4 | K, R0-for-4