Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

HOU @ NYM

Saturday · August 29, 2026·full·gamePk 823582free Saturday

refreshed 672h 20m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Citi Field

gametime 4:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

80°F

humidity 30%

wind

4 mph

cross RF to LF

precip

clear

park

NYM

open · HP→CF 21°

wind impact on total

-0.03 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

opener / bulk pattern

HOU: Bennett Sousa opens → bulk: Ethan Pecko· predicted bulk based on 2/21 prior short outings

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Bennett SousaLHP · opener · HOU	Ethan PeckoRHP · bulk · HOU	Nolan McLeanRHP · NYM
xERA 2026	3.51	8.65	3.64
xwOBA 2026	0.291	0.428	0.296
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.079	-0.032	-0.009
xERA 2025	2.89	—	3.51
xwOBA 2025	0.266	—	0.292
Outs/TB 25-26	2.29	1.60	2.59
FIP 25-26	3.01	8.07	3.44
kwERA 25-26	3.06	6.02	3.15
K% 25-26	28.1%	12.8%	27.9%
BB% 25-26	8.6%	17.9%	9.2%
IP 25+26 combined	69.3	8.0	196.7
ERA actual 2026	6.27	7.88	3.21
ERA (L4)	24.00	10.38	2.74
WHIP (L4)	4.00	2.08	1.26
K% (L4)	19.0%	4.8%	20.8%
BB% (L4)	9.5%	19.0%	13.5%
IP/gm (L4)	0.75	4.33	5.75
L4 window	08/14→08/26 (4 outs)	08/25→08/25 (1 st)	08/06→08/23 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	103 (−4)	107	103 (−4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.90 (+0.76)	5.99 (−1.00)	5.58 (+1.94)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.96	2.30	0.49

away arsenal · BULK Ethan Pecko — HOU

RV/100 2.30

Sinker—+2.30xwOBA 0.376

home arsenal — NYM

RV/100 0.49

Sinker—+2.80xwOBA 0.273
4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.385
Curveball—+1.00xwOBA 0.154
Sweeper—-2.80xwOBA 0.394
Cutter—-2.50xwOBA 0.391
Changeup—-1.30xwOBA 0.317
Slider—+1.70xwOBA 0.192

away · HOU vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.752

Σ match

2.780

Σ FRV

-1.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Jeremy Peña	0.328	0.331	-2.0
2	LF	Yordan Alvarez	0.455	0.458	-2.0
3	3B	Isaac Paredes	0.325	0.331	+0.6
4	2B	Jose Altuve	0.275	0.278	-6.2
5	CF	Daulton Varsho	0.289	0.289	+3.6
6	1B	Christian Walker	0.301	0.296	+2.9
7	RF	Taylor Trammell	0.296	0.301	-1.4
8	SS	Nick Allen	0.245	0.254	-0.3
9	C	Christian Vázquez	0.238	0.244	+3.4

home · NYM vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.985

Σ match

3.737

Σ FRV

-3.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Francisco Lindor	0.339	0.462	-0.5
2	DH	Juan Soto	0.422	0.499	-3.3
3	3B	Bo Bichette	0.323	0.355	-0.9
4	RF	Carson Benge	0.340	0.442	+5.0
5	1B	Jared Young	0.311	0.332	-1.2
6	2B	Marcus Semien	0.307	0.436	-6.3
7	CF	A.J. Ewing	0.315	0.366	+5.3
8	LF	Brett Baty	0.304	0.402	-0.8
9	C	Francisco Alvarez	0.324	0.442	-1.3

defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)

Christian Vázquez

FRV+3.4
framing+5.4
blocking-1.3
throwing-0.7

defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)

Francisco Alvarez

FRV-1.3
framing+0.5
blocking-1.8
throwing+0.0

HOU · Ethan Pecko

Last outing 2026-08-25 vs NYY · 4.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 1
Stuff+	—	—	107
Location+	—	—	81
Pitching+	—	—	91
botOvr	—	—	40
SIERA	—	—	5.99

Last 1 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-08-25. 0/1 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-25; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

NYM · Nolan McLean

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs CWS · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	103
Location+	—	—	95
Pitching+	—	—	101
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	5.58

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

HOU · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.36–0.43]

0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Bennett Sousa (3.90)

NYM · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.28–0.49]

0.090 R/PA · 0.127 R/out · worst: Jefry Yan (4.80)

HOU

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Josh Hader	CLOSER	CL	1.66	36.9	8.5	0.91	20/0/14	stable
Bryan Abreu	CLOSER	SU	4.66	29.4	16.3	0.92	7/11/21	stable
Steven Okert	SETUP	SU	3.27	25.8	5.5	1.01	0/19/1	stable
Enyel De Los Santos	SETUP	MR	3.64	22.3	5.5	1.07	5/9/13	stable
AJ Blubaugh	SETUP	MR	3.93	24.8	10.0	1.68	1/8/6	ramping up
Kai-Wei Teng	SWING	MR	4.70	23.0	9.7	2.76	0/3/1	ramping up
Bennett Sousa	MOP_UP	MR	3.82	23.9	11.4	0.67	0/6/2	stable
Tatsuya Imai	SP	LR	4.48	27.6	14.6	3.86	0/0/0	ramping down

NYM

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kodai Senga	BULK	CL	6.06	26.2	14.8	3.39	4/0/1	ramping down
Austin Warren	OPENER	MR	4.20	25.6	11.4	1.35	0/1/9	stable
Daniel Duarte	MR	SU	2.42	27.7	6.0	1.67	2/4/2	insufficient data
Jonathan Pintaro	MR	MR	4.89	24.4	14.4	2.47	0/1/2	ramping up
Chris Devenski	MOP_UP	LR	6.07	25.0	0.0	0.78	0/0/1	insufficient data
Nate Lavender	unknown	SU	1.33	34.3	5.7	—	0/6/0	—
Jefry Yan	unknown	MR	4.96	25.0	20.0	—	0/1/0	—
Dedniel Núñez	unknown	MR	5.32	22.5	0.0	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 HOU · 6 NYM

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

HOU

2 R

4H · 1HR · 3BB · 6K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.206 · SLGe 0.300 · K% 17.6

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 6 ER · 6 K · relief 7.3 IP · 4 arms

NYM

6 R

11H · 0HR · 2BB · 6K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.351 · SLGe 0.471 · K% 16.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 6 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

HOU · standout lines

big nights

Yordan Alvarez (LF) · 2-3 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR

tough nights

Christian Walker (1B) · 0-40-for-4
Taylor Trammell (RF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

NYM · standout lines

big nights

Jared Young (1B) · 3-4 | 3B, 3 RBI, R3 H · 5 TB

tough nights

Bo Bichette (3B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4